Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Wthrfan]

Welp, looking like LC may miss his prediction of a broad, cold arctic outbreak for the Southern Plains in the late Feb-early March time frame.

[Stratton23]

it happens, nobody is perfect

[Brent]

I'm just ready for El Nino at this point

I still can't believe we somehow got our average snow in one weekend cause the rest of this winter has been absolute complete utter garbage from day 1 otherwise

I mean the very first week of December it snowed south of here bad omen

[CaptinCrunch]

CPC Probabilistic ENSO Outlook Updated: 12 February 2026

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in March-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026). With a transitioning to El Nino in the (Sept-Nov) time frame @ 50% Chance.

If El Nino is evident by late Fall of 26' I would lean on a weak to low end moderate El Nino headed into Winter 26/27

[txtwister78]

Mid 90's showing up now next wk in SA on the GFS after a brief cool shot of air over the weekend. No such thing as a false Spring this season. Looks like we may get an early shot of some summer heat soon.

Well I for one am now awaiting with anticipation the storm chasing season. That's much of my springtime TV viewing, live streams of chasers.

I think thats coming especially for April & May as we trend into ENSO Neutral territory coming out of this La Nina dry pattern we've been stuck in for what seems like an eternity

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro AI tries to get the new Spring Thread off to a fast start...

[Stratton23]

unfortunately its all alone, GFS, CMC, Euro are bone dry

[Brent]

Mid 90's showing up now next wk in SA on the GFS after a brief cool shot of air over the weekend. No such thing as a false Spring this season. Looks like we may get an early shot of some summer heat soon.

Well I for one am now awaiting with anticipation the storm chasing season. That's much of my springtime TV viewing, live streams of chasers.

I think thats coming especially for April & May as we trend into ENSO Neutral territory coming out of this La Nina dry pattern we've been stuck in for what seems like an eternity

Yeah I've seen some talk up here about another wet and maybe slightly less bad summer also. But a lot of people think the severe is gonna be active as well

I mean last year did have a huge flip to be fair around April. March was dominated by fires(Spring Break was actually the peak here)

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty nice temp bust this morning. The low was forecasted at 37 and we got down to 28.

[Brent]

Pretty nice temp bust this morning. The low was forecasted at 37 and we got down to 28.

Wind chill of 18 here

Well it's a rare moment this winter it feels like it

[wxman22]

Pretty nice temp bust this morning. The low was forecasted at 37 and we got down to 28.

Yep I was about to say the same thing. We were not supposed to be in the 20’s this morning.

[wxman22]

18z Euro AI tries to get the new Spring Thread off to a fast start...

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_aifs/2026021918/360/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Something to watch, the Euro AI had been pretty consistent showing this storm the last few days. Sometimes the AI will lock into storms before the regular global models do.

[Iceresistance]

Pretty nice temp bust this morning. The low was forecasted at 37 and we got down to 28.

Wind chill of 18 here

Well it's a rare moment this winter it feels like it

I think we're in the 2nd winter now, next stop is the "Spring of Deception"

[Stratton23]

GFS has a strong front at the end of february/ early march with some rain, but thats about it, until things change, dry weather dominates the next 10-15 days and probably beyond that as well

[Cpv17]

GFS has a strong front at the end of february/ early march with some rain, but thats about it, until things change, dry weather dominates the next 10-15 days and probably beyond that as well

And with the strong spring winds coming up, it’s only going to dry us out even more and aide wildfires.

[TomballEd]

College Station, Navasota and Conroe have a wind shift. CLL dewpoint down to 46F, meanwhile, at the big airport, dewpoint is 68F. Not forecast last I checked until tomorrow late morning or afternoon. HRRR has the wind shift in metro HOU around mid-night.

Earlier front will be even stronger than the front forecast to give lows in the 40s that was forecast yesterday evening on local news?

[rwfromkansas]

I am pretty chill since we had a week of cold and white on the ground here, but 86 next Wednesday on the NWS forecast makes me feel icky. Almost 90 before March is wrong.

[wxman22]

I am pretty chill since we had a week of cold and white on the ground here, but 86 next Wednesday on the NWS forecast makes me feel icky. Almost 90 before March is wrong.

Yeah that’s how I feel. Considering how warm this winter has been it’s a miracle that we were able to salvage a big winter storm and record breaking cold temps out of it. It’s hard to believe that we were in the single digits just a few weeks ago. What a bizarre season, and the “random” storm we had makes it even more bizarre.

[Stratton23]

80 degrees here now, absolutely depressing, wish it was about 60-70 degrees colder

[wxman22]

At least today and this weekend are looking wonderful. Sunny with highs in the 50’s and lows in the 20’s.