SIO: HORACIO - Moderate Tropical Storm

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 20 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.1 South / 76.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2280 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3390 km to the East sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- The 11-20252026 system, which is developing over the center of the basin, far from inhabited land, has intensified in recent hours. It has reached the stage of a moderate tropical storm and has therefore been named HORACIO.

- Tropical Storm Horacio will gradually move towards the southwest in the coming hours. It is expected to intensify over the next few days and could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone by Sunday or Monday.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 20 at 4 p.m. local time: 15.7 South / 75.8 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2190 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3320 km to the East sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 19 km/h.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.

Position on February 20 at 10 p.m. local time: 15.7 South / 74.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2095 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3210 km to the East sector

Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is developing over the center of the basin, far from inhabited land.

- Tropical Storm Horacio is heading southwest this weekend. It is expected to continue intensifying over the next few days and could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone by Sunday or Monday.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 999 hPa.

Position on February 21 at 04:00 local time: 16.1 South / 74.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2040 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3180 km to the East sector

Movement: WEST, at 11 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is moving westward over the central basin, far from inhabited land. It is currently located more than 1200 km northeast of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest this weekend. It is expected to continue intensifying over the next few days and could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone by Monday.

- Early next week, HORACIO is expected to gradually move south and then southeast. It could pass about 100 km east of Rodrigues between Monday and Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.

Position on February 21 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.5 South / 73.3 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1905 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3050 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 24 km/h.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 998 hPa.

Position on February 21 at 4 p.m. local time: 16.5 South / 72.4 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1815 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2950 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is moving across the central basin, far from inhabited land. It is currently located nearly 1000 km northeast of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest this weekend. It is expected to continue intensifying over the next few days and could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone by Monday.

[sasha_B]

Horacio appears to be (re)intensifying, after getting off to a bit of a "false start". I question the retroactive adjustment to its best track to remove its initial 45 kt peak, though - unless there's surface data I haven't seen, a blend of subjective DT (45 kt)/ADT (55 kt)/ASCAT (40 kt) fully supported that intensity for c. 18z on the 20th.

Let's see how far it gets this time. Hurricane model guidance remains quite bullish, if not to the degree it was earlier this week, with HAFS-A (as of 12z this morning) showing a 17 hPa drop in pressure over the next 24 hours, with Horacio reaching SSHWS Category 3 after a further 18 hPa drop by 12z on the 23rd.

Subjective and objective satellite estimates both stand at around T3.0 at time of writing. CZK for a 40～45 kt storm gives 996～998 hPa.

[sasha_B]

Pretty big spread between the two hurricane models now - both show Horacio peaking around +60h from 26.02.21/12z, but HWRF only gets Horacio to Category 1 (75 kt, 974 hPa at 21z Monday), while HAFS has stayed far more aggressive, insisting that the storm will reach Category 4 (130 kt, 943 hPa at 03z Tuesday). The lower-resolution climate models fall somewhere in between - GFS takes it to 953 hPa and ECMWF to 964 hPa.

For something like the HAFS solution to verify, I think Horacio would need to recover pretty quickly from the easterly shear that's been holding it back. The JTWC's forecast predicts a near-steady state through this evening, with RI (+60 kt in 48h) beginning in the early morning hours...I'm not quite sure it'll get there, but worth watching nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 21 at 10 p.m. local time: 16.6 South / 71.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1720 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2860 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 20 km/h.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 22 at 04:00 local time: 16.8 South / 70.7 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1640 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2780 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is moving across the central basin, far from inhabited land. It is currently located nearly 800 km northeast of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest this weekend and intensify over the next few days. It could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone on Monday.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 22 at 10 a.m. local time: 17.1 South / 69.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1550 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2700 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is moving across the central basin, far from inhabited land. It is currently located just over 700 km east-northeast of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest this weekend and intensify over the next few days. It could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone on Monday.