SIO: HORACIO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 20 at 10 a.m. local time: 15.1 South / 76.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2280 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3390 km to the East sector

Movement: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- The 11-20252026 system, which is developing over the center of the basin, far from inhabited land, has intensified in recent hours. It has reached the stage of a moderate tropical storm and has therefore been named HORACIO.

- Tropical Storm Horacio will gradually move towards the southwest in the coming hours. It is expected to intensify over the next few days and could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone by Sunday or Monday.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 20 at 4 p.m. local time: 15.7 South / 75.8 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2190 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3320 km to the East sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 19 km/h.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.

Position on February 20 at 10 p.m. local time: 15.7 South / 74.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2095 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3210 km to the East sector

Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is developing over the center of the basin, far from inhabited land.

- Tropical Storm Horacio is heading southwest this weekend. It is expected to continue intensifying over the next few days and could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone by Sunday or Monday.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 999 hPa.

Position on February 21 at 04:00 local time: 16.1 South / 74.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 2040 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3180 km to the East sector

Movement: WEST, at 11 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is moving westward over the central basin, far from inhabited land. It is currently located more than 1200 km northeast of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest this weekend. It is expected to continue intensifying over the next few days and could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone by Monday.

- Early next week, HORACIO is expected to gradually move south and then southeast. It could pass about 100 km east of Rodrigues between Monday and Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 65 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 1000 hPa.

Position on February 21 at 10 a.m. local time: 16.5 South / 73.3 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1905 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 3050 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 24 km/h.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 998 hPa.

Position on February 21 at 4 p.m. local time: 16.5 South / 72.4 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1815 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2950 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is moving across the central basin, far from inhabited land. It is currently located nearly 1000 km northeast of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest this weekend. It is expected to continue intensifying over the next few days and could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone by Monday.

[sasha_B]

Horacio appears to be (re)intensifying, after getting off to a bit of a "false start". I question the retroactive adjustment to its best track to remove its initial 45 kt peak, though - unless there's surface data I haven't seen, a blend of subjective DT (45 kt)/ADT (55 kt)/ASCAT (40 kt) fully supported that intensity for c. 18z on the 20th.

Let's see how far it gets this time. Hurricane model guidance remains quite bullish, if not to the degree it was earlier this week, with HAFS-A (as of 12z this morning) showing a 17 hPa drop in pressure over the next 24 hours, with Horacio reaching SSHWS Category 3 after a further 18 hPa drop by 12z on the 23rd.

Subjective and objective satellite estimates both stand at around T3.0 at time of writing. CZK for a 40～45 kt storm gives 996～998 hPa.

[sasha_B]

Pretty big spread between the two hurricane models now - both show Horacio peaking around +60h from 26.02.21/12z, but HWRF only gets Horacio to Category 1 (75 kt, 974 hPa at 21z Monday), while HAFS has stayed far more aggressive, insisting that the storm will reach Category 4 (130 kt, 943 hPa at 03z Tuesday). The lower-resolution climate models fall somewhere in between - GFS takes it to 953 hPa and ECMWF to 964 hPa.

For something like the HAFS solution to verify, I think Horacio would need to recover pretty quickly from the easterly shear that's been holding it back. The JTWC's forecast predicts a near-steady state through this evening, with RI (+60 kt in 48h) beginning in the early morning hours...I'm not quite sure it'll get there, but worth watching nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 21 at 10 p.m. local time: 16.6 South / 71.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1720 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2860 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 20 km/h.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 22 at 04:00 local time: 16.8 South / 70.7 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1640 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2780 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST, at 15 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is moving across the central basin, far from inhabited land. It is currently located nearly 800 km northeast of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest this weekend and intensify over the next few days. It could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone on Monday.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 996 hPa.

Position on February 22 at 10 a.m. local time: 17.1 South / 69.9 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1550 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2700 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 17 km/h.

System information:

- Moderate tropical storm HORACIO is moving across the central basin, far from inhabited land. It is currently located just over 700 km east-northeast of Rodrigues.

- The system is expected to continue moving southwest this weekend and intensify over the next few days. It could reach the stage of an intense tropical cyclone on Monday.

[sasha_B]

MW imagery from around 15z shows that Horacio's structure has improved, and the latest satellite bulletin from JTWC (1730z) has convection wrapping 0.85 for an FT of 3.5. We should see intensification continue throughout the afternoon and overnight, if the latest forecasts are to be believed.

HWRF shows the storm peaking as a minimal SSHWS Category 3 (96 kt, 962 hPa) at around 12z Tuesday; HAFS now shows a peak at a similar intensity (104 kt, 962 hPa), but almost 24 hours earlier, with peak intensity and subsequent weakening starting around 15z tomorrow. Most models solutions are now in complete alignment, with the GFS and Euro likewise showing a 962 hPa pressure minimum late Monday or early Tuesday, which lines up with the JTWC's forecast peak of 100 kt at 0z Tuesday. Much less of a spread than there was this time yesterday.

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to 55 kts at 18z Best Track.

22S HORACIO 260222 1800 17.8S 68.2E SHEM 55 989

[cycloneye]

UP to Severe.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HORACIO


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 95 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 130 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 990 hPa.

Position on February 22 at 10 p.m. local time: 17.9 South / 68.1 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1340 km to the East-Northeast sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2530 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: WEST-SOUTH-WEST, at 19 km/h.

[sasha_B]

CI 4.0 from JTWC on their 2030z bulletin:

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO)
B. 22/2030Z
C. 18.09S
D. 67.83E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS A 3.5. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/1458Z 17.45S 68.75E SSMS

[cycloneye]

Looks much better now.

[sasha_B]

The presence of a well-defined eye on MW imagery as of about 4 hours ago, combined with two consecutive subjective Dvorak fixes of 4.0 at 2030 and 2330z, suggests that Horacio is around 65～70 kt right now, which would correspond to a central pressure of 979～982 hPa. Remains to be seen just how quickly the storm is intensifying - we've yet to see an eye pop out on IR imagery, and it'll be an hour or two yet before we get VIS imagery to compare. But for the moment at least it seems to be in line with forecast expectations.

(I do think ADT's estimate of 75 kt is a little high, though - it tends to jump up too quickly when switching over to an eye pattern.)

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 65 kts.

22S HORACIO 260223 0000 18.3S 67.4E SHEM 65 984

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Horacio


Estimated maximum wind speeds (averaged over 10 minutes) at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 165 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 986 hPa.

Position on February 23 at 04:00 local time: 18.5 South / 67.5 East.

Distance from the coast of Réunion: 1260 km to the East sector

Distance from Mayotte: 2480 km to the East-Southeast sector

Movement: SOUTHWEST, at 15 km/h.

[Hurricane2022]

Looking good.