2026 ENSO Updates

[DorkyMcDorkface]

@RyanMaue
The upcoming "mega El Niño" could be the strongest since the 1877 event that wiped out 4% of the Earth's population due to heat waves, drought and pestilence.

Scientists watching every weather model update are getting "heart palpitations" ❤️

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/2046285347664048562

Sensationalizing as he is known to do.

Pretty sure he's being facetious since he's a known climate science denier, which is unfortunate

[cycloneye]

We wake up with this.

[tolakram]

I do agree it's being overly hyped. Let's see what el nino we end up with post spring barrier.

Please also remember that anyone on X with a blue checkmark showing can get paid to make posts, or be paid for people interacting with posts. This encourages outlandish posting to drive more interaction which potentially drives more income. This is most similar to the Youtube model and I think we've all gotten used to avoiding certain YT videos from channels that tend to prioritize engagement over useful content.

Am I accusing everyone with a blue check of hyping things up? No, nor am I accusing everyone with a monetized Youtube channel. Know the source, look at the posting history, use your best judgement.

I am constantly surprised at how well posters on X can predict a hurricane season. And no pesky verification to remind us how accurate they've been.

[Ntxw]

What's left of the cold anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific is all but gone. I'll make a guess that early May we'll see our first +0.5C or greater weekly reading. +PMM is also looking like it's deepening.

[cycloneye]

We will have to wait until May 14th to know the latest status of ENSO when CPC releases their monthly update. There is a moderate to high probability that they will declare that the data reached El Niño threshold, but also they may wait until June to do it. According to the latest from the sst anomalys, things are warming fast and almost the blues are gone.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/daniloevan11/status/2046689923701321867

[cycloneye]

SOI should drop again in 72 hours. That drop should last to end April. Could see another WWB soon then.

It is doing that again.

[cycloneye]

Dang. +6C at subsurface.

[wxman57]

April forecast is for a 90-95% chance of El Nino this season.

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2046967274175918548

[jconsor]

Nice post by James Spann. However, I added some important context regarding the CFS ENSO forecast.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2047046293134930159

 https://x.com/spann/status/2046364934359925167

[cycloneye]

Nice post by James Spann. However, I added some important context regarding the CFS ENSO forecast.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/2047046293134930159

 https://x.com/spann/status/2046364934359925167

Andy Hazelton commented about this at the X chat.

I just think it's a little disingenuous to call this anything other than a Super Niño. That doesn't mean it's guaranteed to verify, but the PDF+spread corrected+RONI chart seems to be popular because it's a way to pretend this won't be a massive Niño that shuts down the Atlantic this year (at least that's been the clear implication from the people I've seen posting it)

[cycloneye]

CFSv2 raw data for OND.

[Ntxw]

I have a good/bad feel relationship with the roni. I think we don't have enough understanding of the relationships between the warming oceans to definitely say "because roni does this compared to the oni means expect Y response." If the tropical enso pacific outwarms the higher latitudes and other regions of the tropical oceans then the gap will close. This will be a good case to see how the relationship between the two alters when the different warm pools try to outpace each other.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Dang. +6C at subsurface.

https://i.imgur.com/ePFakUi.gif

[dexterlabio]

I have a good/bad feel relationship with the roni. I think we don't have enough understanding of the relationships between the warming oceans to definitely say "because roni does this compared to the oni means expect Y response." If the tropical enso pacific outwarms the higher latitudes and other regions of the tropical oceans then the gap will close. This will be a good case to see how the relationship between the two alters when the different warm pools try to outpace each other.

I would really love to read peer-evaluated papers on RONI and how it's supposed to alter how ENSO events impact the global climate. It also seems like 2023 is being used as the poster year for RONI-adjusted El Niño.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I have a good/bad feel relationship with the roni. I think we don't have enough understanding of the relationships between the warming oceans to definitely say "because roni does this compared to the oni means expect Y response." If the tropical enso pacific outwarms the higher latitudes and other regions of the tropical oceans then the gap will close. This will be a good case to see how the relationship between the two alters when the different warm pools try to outpace each other.

I would really love to read peer-evaluated papers on RONI and how it's supposed to alter how ENSO events impact the global climate. It also seems like 2023 is being used as the poster year for RONI-adjusted El Niño.

Not a peer reviewed study, but this was CPC's explaination for why they decided to change to RONI back in February:

This proposed change will have two primary benefits for ENSO monitoring
and prediction: 1) the relative sea surface temperature index better
identifies current and past El Niño and La Niña events because it is less
sensitive to the chosen base climatology period. This allows for
comparison of events across the lengthy climate record. 2) A relative
index is more related to changes in rainfall over the tropical Pacific
than the traditional index. Over the past year, the relative SST index
was better aligned with the intensity of rainfall anomalies and
circulation changes associated with the ENSO phenomenon.

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/pns26-05_Relative_ONI.pdf

[cycloneye]

2026 has surpassed 1997.

@AndyHazelton
The downwelling Kelvin Wave over the Central Pacific is now slightly stronger than previous events (1997 and 2023) were at the same approximate longitude. There's also yet another downwelling wave yet to propagate east from the WPAC (driven by the last westerly wind burst). With weak trade winds forecast across the Pacific the next two weeks, there will be nothing to attenuate these Kelvin Waves, so they will continue to propagate east and lead to rapid warming of the Central and East Pacific as we progress into #ElNiño.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2047363748474876255

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
Super El Niño: A record-breaking westerly wind burst was caused by rare triplet cyclones in the Pacific during early April.

Highly unusual winds along the equator created a strong Kelvin wave, which is now just starting to transport huge amounts of warm water across the Pacific.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2047669387487064563

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
That last WWB was really really impressive. It's also worth remembering that the recent Niño warming we've seen was actually from the *previous* WWB and downwelling Kelvin Wave. The effects from early April's record-breaking WWB are just now being seen around 160E-180E. With ongoing weak trades, there won't be much attenuation of this next Kelvin Wave, and we should continue to see notable ENSO warming through May into summer.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2047671192144720177