Woodbridge Sleet/Mix/Rain Thread......

[Anonymous]

532PM EDIT.......
It has come to my attention that, while this early-week event will be a mix changing to rain here in the MA, strong CAD will set up which will promote a winter weather event in the MA late this week. Though we may well lose our snowpack to rain tomorrow, it may be replaced by more snow on Thursday and Friday.

Stormsfury indicated in a recent thread that there may be a stronger CAD event than expected late this week. This could mean more snow for N VA over the Thursday/Friday time frame! The system that SF is indicating will tap the GOM BIG-TIME then throw that moisture into the cold air over the MA late this week!!

However in the spirit of a true snow-loving weather weenie, I will begin this thread this afternoon, expecting only very small amounts of sleet and freezing rain overnight then a good dousing of steady rain throughout the day tomorrow possibly on into tomorrow night.

That said, we bottomed out at 18 degrees overnight. We did warm to 39 degrees this afternoon though.

Skies were clear at 1130am this morning, with cirrus on SW horizon.

At 1230pm we had cirrus/cirrostratus overhead covering 70% of the sky.

At 140pm we had a cirrostratus layer, with altostratus on the SW horizon.

At 350pm we have a cirrostratus layer and bands of altostratus beneath that. Temperature is 36 degrees with a dewpoint of 21 degrees.

Let's hope the clouds allow for some cooling tonight, I'd like to see us cool down into the mid 20s at least. Evap cooling may help us in the predawn hours as the freezing rain reaches the surface about 3/4am.

Hopefully we will build up some ice before the inevitable plain rain does a major Tuesday smackdown event on our precious snowpack lol. It won't take much to melt that thin snow layer folks, not much at all...........

WOW what a nice storm to our west.....check out the national radar. I think I can see the baroclinic zone developing to the east of GA already. Some overrrunning snows developing from parent system over SW VA Mts. We will NOT see any of that here in N VA........

Check out the regional radar........The snows are working in over the SW VA mts......lucky dogs!!!....... and N VA should start to see thickening clouds from the parent system and also from increasing moisture advection from the developing coastal system in the general vicinity of GA/SC coast or just off the GA/SC coast through the overnight.

The morning commute will be slippery in N VA but will improve with time, especially after 9am as sfc temps rise into the middle 30s. Expect rain through the day in N VA..........

Beware if you live in MD, PA and west, even in N VA, because well west of Woodbridge and Manassas the cold air will hang on longer and icing will be a major concern in those places well into Tues. night. PA and points north should pick up nice snows Tues afternoon well into Tuesday evening, with some mixing of p-types expected.

BTW Big-Eyed Fish.......Thanks for the dose of harsh reality.....it was a nice heads-up on the impending rain in Woodbridge and is much appreciated......not the best news but I'll live LOL!

Everyone in the ice areas and in the snow......ENJOY!!!! This should be a nice event for y'all!!!!

More updates are coming.......


-Jeb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Come ON, SC Low, PLEASE track farther SE......

[JCT777]

Hope you don't get too much rain, Jeb.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, I hope we don't too, JCT. Thanks for the thought! I hope you get 14 inches of snow though!!!

It is going to be interesting to watch this new low take shape. On this national radar, you can actually see the beginnings of convection firing up as all that energy from the parent low transfers to the coastal system forming in the baroclinic region off Georgia's coastline!!!

WOW!!!! Are you folks up in the NE paying attention? Cos this system is gonna bring you good snow tomorrow night into Wednesday!!!!


BTW, 36 degrees now. The really sad thing is, I have already noticed S winds at 2 to 6 mph. Cirrus, cirrostratus and altostratus clouds thickening up.



-Jeb!!!!!


-Jeb!!!!!!

[JCT777]

I hope you get 14 inches of snow though!!!

I just hope I get that much for the rest of the winter combined. But thanks anyway!

[paulvogel]

just flew back this afternoon from my uncles 100th bday
Venice Fl had a awesome fogbank roll in yesterday at 5pm, leading to a tanker explosion on I 75
closing sb I 75 for a week. The flight up saw clear skies in Fla(Fog offshore) then clouds all the way up to dc (3pm-5pm)
wee still have solid snowcover in alexandria va

[Anonymous]

just flew back this afternoon from my uncles 100th bday
Venice Fl had a awesome fogbank roll in yesterday at 5pm, leading to a tanker explosion on I 75
closing sb I 75 for a week. The flight up saw clear skies in Fla(Fog offshore) then clouds all the way up to dc (3pm-5pm)
wee still have solid snowcover in alexandria va

You should---we have had fairly coolish weather all week. You can see the weather for the past few days on this page. I have to update it for yesterday's and today's weather----I'll do that right now.

Enjoy the snowpack tonight----frzra's coming by 4am tomorrow, followed by a boatload of plain rain and a mild high of 39 degrees--say bye-bye to our snow and hello to milder weather---no more snowpack-enhanced overnight lows or lower than climo daytime highs---Oh well.


-Jeb

[Lowpressure]

Jeb- 9:41 p.m. and 28.9 degrees.

[Anonymous]

1012pm and 29 degrees, dewpoint 20 degrees.

Frzra should hit the ground by 3, 4am. Temp and DP are not far apart tonight 29/20. With evap cooling, temp should dip to 25 then T/D spread will be about 26/25 with freezing rain by 3 or 4am.

With a LOT of LUCK we may see frzra until about 8 or 9 am then that darn sunrise shuts the party down with the twin evils of solar insolation thru the clouds PLUS rising temps above freezing with highs 35 to 39. Plain rain will have a field day with our snowpack, which will gasp its last by midafternoon Tuesday. Man that really bites!!!

Three inches of snow don't stand a fighting chance against nine hours of 39-degree rain. OUCH, OUCH, OUCH, OUCH!

Aaarrgghh!!!!
Aaarrgghh!!!!
Aaarrgghh!!!!

There's no messin' with February Climo in N VA east of the Mts---It's a relentless meteorological tyrant, year after weary year lol.

I am really gonna miss those beautiful jebwalks in the snow, crunching through the ice crust. After this storm, I'll be sloshing through the mud. What a sad ending, after 3 weeks of seriously chilly weather, but that's N VA for ya I guess.

I find myself already thinking of fertilizing the lawn for spring growth as I face up to the likely fact that the pattern is probably going rotten for the rest of the season, at least this far south.

They don't call Virginia a Southern state for nothing, you know.



-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Looking at this regional radar loop, I see the precip moving SW to NE.

All throughout the winter, the DRY AIR was a MAJOR factor.

Tonight, DRY AIR at the low levels is not an issue, the current temperature is 29 degrees, the dewpoint is 20 degrees and the relative humidity is a whopping 71 percent.

You don't have any idea how badly I want that precipitation shield to overspread Woodbridge tonight. I am not greedy for winter. I am not looking for snow or even sleet pellets. All I wanted was a little freezing rain.

I don't want it to wait until 9 or 10am tomorrow morning when it will be 39 degrees, to begin sleeting or freezing raining or plain raining.

I want it to begin tonight, while it is cold enough for some nice frzra.

It just has not been fair at all this season. We have had 3 weeks of chilly weather. The Chesapeake Bay is icy, go far enough north and it is frozen. The Potomac River is frozen. Ponds have 6 inches of ice on them in N VA. People are playing ice hockey on local ponds. You'd think we lived in Edmonton, Canada for all the ice sports going on here LOL!!! The Delaware Bay has ice. There are ice floes on the Hudson River.

I do not even begin to understand how we can end up with such a mild storm, after all the cold weather we have had this winter.

It is certainly incomprehensible. Three weeks of highs in the 20s to mid 30s, even highs in the teens and lows in the teens and twenties, 4 lows in the singles.

And we are coming out of the cold pattern with a system that will be 90 percent plain rain.

That is nothing short of amazing.

This pattern is so mercilessly efficient at producing storms that go to plain rain in N VA, that the precip will wait until tomorrow morning to begin. When it does begin, it will be plain rain.

This is something I just can not understand.

The least nature could do is start the frzra at 2 am and give us one last bit of winter, give us a half-inch of ice, then go to town with the plain rain after 8am and wash it all away, no muss, no fuss. That would be perfectly fair.

But this winter, the storms have not been very fair.

Tomorrow's system is no different. At least we can say one thing for this winter's storms in N VA.

They were very, very consistent. They either dried up or went mild with plain rain, or went north of us, or went south of us.

At least we enjoyed the cold. We had three weeks of that. But this winter, all of us down here in the MA learned a new lesson:

Just because it is very cold for three weeks, does not necessarily mean we will see a lot of snow, or even a lot of sleet or freezing rain for that matter.

Hello rainy (Plain rain) February 3.

Good-bye snowpack. We were broadsided where it hurt the most. Ouch.


-Jeb

[Anonymous]

WOW is all I can say...............................

Concerning this storm........DRY AIR IS NO ISSUE.

The temperature has just fallen to 27 degrees, with a dewpoint of 21 degrees.

Winds are light.

But the humidity is up to 75 percent!!!!!!

Yeah folks, there is NO DRY AIR in VA tonight at all. None of this plain rain will dry up before it reaches the ground LOL LOL LOL!!!!!!


-Jeb

[Anonymous]

11:30 PM
Sterling, VA

Temp: 26F
DP: 19F

I'm thinking sleet and freezing rain (possibly mixed with snow) begins about 5AM or so and picks up intensity by 7AM. We go over to all ZR by 8AM-9AM as temps begin to rise, then finally switch to rain by 11AM or noon. This will only last a few hours and temps will tumble as the low passes to the north, dropping below freezing again by 3-4PM and ending the precip as a period of snow, possibly a dusting of accumulation. Not a big storm by any means, but probably a disruption to both the morning and evening commutes.

[Anonymous]

This is really interesting folks!!!!!!

Check out this regional radar and this vapor loop.

Set them up in their own browser windows and let 'em rip!!!

Would ya look at that nice moisture plume?!!!!!!

Come ON, freezing rain!!! Come ON, baby!!! Come fall on Woodbridge all night in our cool 27-degree temperatures!!!

Give us some fresh ICE!!!!!

Please move east and expand that beautiful moisture plume right on top of Woodbridge, Virginia!!! Cascade trillions of tons of freezing rain and sleet down upon the Dale City/Woodbridge region tonight!!! Please don't wait til 5 am to do it!!! Start the steady moderate freezing rain at 1 or 2 am right through Tuesday as freezing rain, with some nice sleet mixed in for good measure!!!!

I am ready for a power outage!!! I'll catch up on these obs on Thursday!!! I have 25 big thick blankets in my home!!! I am ready for 2 inches of freezing rain!!! I want them really bad!!!!

I would gladly fork over half a year's wages just to have 36 hours' worth of freezing rain and sleet in 25-degree temperatures here through Tuesday night!!!

BRING IT!!!! BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!!

I don't want Plain Rain!!!!

I want Freezing Rain and Sleet!!!!! I want more fun, enjoyable Ice-filled jebwalks!!!!!! Hey, its early February!!! It's time for this!!!!!

BRING IT NOW!!!!! BRING IT ON!!!!!!!


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

1220am..........................

We are now 26 degrees and 21 degree dewpoint, which means we now have 80 percent humidity.

Again, NO dry air here in N VA tonight. This is a very moist airmass here. The column should not have to moisten up too much, so lets see all that freezing rain cascade down onto Dale City/Woodbridge, Virginia tonight into tomorrow!!!

This is one storm that will not be eaten up by dry air at all!!!!!!!!!!!!

-Jeb

[Anonymous]

110am Feb 3........................

Well folks we are 26 degrees with a 21 degree dewpoint which is 80 percent humidity.

We won't be wasting precious frzra trying to moisten that column tonight.

What scares the dickens outa me is that I am stark scared that my precious freezing rain won't start early enough for me to get my ice accumulation that I want so badly.I have spent 8 hours tonight staring at radars and water vapor loops. I can not recall ever doing so much of that as I have this winter and having so little winter precip to show for it, which is heartbreaking.

There is a light ESE wind occasionally puffing a 5 mph wind once in a while.

I fervently hope the temps get down to about 22 degrees.

Here is the regional radar.

The precip is of course taking it's sweet time getting here. I wanted it so badly to fall tonight when air temps and ground temps would have supported some decent ice accumulations. I never expected any snow from this, only some nice freezing rain and perhaps a sleet pellet or two thrown in for good measure.

Of course the precip will wait til daytime for......

1) The solar insolation thru the clouds, and
2) The temps to rise up above freezing.

Thus, although we cooled to 26 degrees overnight and we were cool enough to enjoy freezing rain AND we had a nice moist column with 80 percent humidity overnight......................

We will see a plain rain event. This is why we will not see so much as a brief 5 second light freezing rain shower overnight.

I have seen many radars like the radar I linked to above, and I have had my heart broken time and time again this winter. Now we have cool enough temperatures AND a moist column, only to suffer a recalcitrant precipitation shield that does not want to move in until after sunrise when temps will rapidly warm above freezing thus setting the stage for an all-day steady plain rain event.

The storms all winter have in many respects performed much like the Washington Redskins did this past football season................The Redskins always found a way to lose the game, much like the winter storms over N VA this winter season always seem to find a way to........

1) Change to plain rain;
2) Track too far North;
3) Track too far South;
4) Dry out so much as they "move in" that they deliver about 30 to 50% of the promised snow.

Like the beleaguered Redskins this past football season, the winter storms over N VA this winter are often "very close events", or "near-misses".

Tonight's winter storm is yet another agonizing example of a "near-miss".
The precip is so close, and its 26 degrees with a 21 degree DP and 80% humidity, yet the precip refuses to move in tonight and grant me my humble freezing rain. Not that if the frzra hit us tonight, that it would shut N VA down, because Tuesday's high temp of 39 degrees plus 9 hours of steady plain rain would wash away all of the accumulated ice as well as snuff out our poor thin snowpack, which is not inconveniencing anyone, not one little bit. I could understand it if we had 24 inches of snow on the ground and we needed some of it to melt, but this is only a small 2 to 3 inch snowpack that Tuesday's rain will wash away in probably three hours maximum time and thaw out the ground besides.

This has been an agonizing winter in N VA. We look forward to more of the same on Tuesday and again on Thursday through Saturday which will be another agonizing near-miss for the Redskins...er....Old Man Winter lol.


-Jeb

[Craig286]

Jeb that was a depressing post

But then I saw all the stuff in your signature...makes it better

Only the biggest weather weenies stay up this late

[arlwx]

Up here at 6:05 am in Arlington VA, the driveway observations:

Not a speck, not a drop yet. The generic 31 degrees.

However, the television showed some poor weatherbabe getting drenched in sleet and FZRA in Warrenton, and the radar indicates it is coming for us too.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

29 degrees in Howard County,MD...getting some light sleet right now...

[Lowpressure]

28 degrees in Alexandria with some light freezing rain mixing with light sleet. Looks like it will be mostly rain here soon.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Getting icy here...temp currently at 32...and I have remained below freezeing all morning. Currently have 0.09" of ice so far.

[Anonymous]

1130am Feb 3..............................



We did not get anything til about 7am this morning. I think we had a very, very small amount of freezing rain then we went over to all plain rain.

That was very, very tough.

But we are pretty much done with the rain, we are down to just a heavy drizzle. The temperature is 32 degrees. If this was snow we would all be crying foul with the end of the precip, because originally the precip was supposed to continue through 6pm this evening. However that will not happen; the plain rain is winding down and it is only steady drizzle now.

The snowpack is still here folks.

I am very, very glad for that. Maybe tonight I will still have a nice snow-related jebwalk, maybe the eastern Potomac Mills parking lot is still a snowy, slippery gulag and I'll have a good jebwalk after all tonight.

I just went outside and checked things. We picked up three-quarters of an inch of rainwater in the rain bucket. We have 2 to 2.5 inches of snow with an ice layer on top. The snowpack is looking really good, considering the rain. We got away with a 4 to 5 hour light to moderate plain rain event with temps in the low 30s. The snow cover is really continuous, not patchy or real thin like I expected. I had thought we might even lose all of the snow today to rain and 40 degree temps, but we are still looking pretty good.

Guess I can still say I am looking forward to my snowy jebwalk tonight. With all the water around that will turn to ice, that gulag will be very slippery after all!!!!!!!!

Of course folks, we still have a sunny 43-degree day to get through tomorrow. Yeah I think we might take a hit there, but at least things get a chance to freeze up good overnight as we slide down to a more comfortable 25 degrees. Ahhhhhhh...............................

The ground is still cold and likely still frozen if a little wet, and we can expect the snow tomorrow in shaded spots and on the northern sides of objects to hang tough. But that 43 degree high tomorrow will blast exposed snow to no end, then tomorrow night we hit 20 for a low (not bad!)

Then maybe we catch a break here in the MA on Thursday/Friday with a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain. I'll take that freezing rain/sleet over plain rain anytime, together with highs in the upper 20s to near 30.

Anything is better than plain rain!

Okay lets see if we can hold on to this drizzle and clouds thru 3pm, then we need clearing to cool down tonight to the mid and maybe the low 20s overnight. Come on slush and pools of water on that frozen ground!! Freeze up really good for us!!! Let's get ready for this 43-degree heat onslaught tomorrow!!! Maybe we'll catch a break with some stratocumulus tomorrow afternoon, blunt that darn sun and stay down in the mid 30s!!!

Yeah, we got the plain rain...................but we didn't do too badly at all.........I am really surprised...........



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!