New ETA

[mdguy25]

NOT good at all..

for anyone

[Heady Guy]

It was expected.

[yoda]

I am hoping this run is a hiccup.... but we will have to see what the GFS/GGEM do...

[Stormsfury]

00z ETA actually still looks good for Coastal Carolinas ... but it's developing the low further offshore ...

[yoda]

SF... could the 0z ETA Run be a model hiccup? Or will we not know until we see the new 0z GFS and GGEM?

[Anonymous]

So much for any hopes of another January 2000. Looks like it's time to call this one off for good from the I-95 cities west, and if this run is right, even east of I-95 except for the immediate coastline.

[Heady Guy]

I really was not expecting much in my neck of the woods. It even looks iffy along the NJ coast in my opinon. Hopefully somebody gets a decent snow.

[hurricanedude]

then still looks good 4 VA BEACH!!!! I STILL GET HAMMERED EITHER WAY

[Craig286]

ETA still has the double low feature...That hardly ever happens

I'm waiting for the 0z GFS before i call this storm over.

[verycoolnin]

Man, you people live and die by the ETA. The storm hasn't even developed yet and alot of you seem to be throwing in the towel.

[Craig286]

Not just that...Kocin just came on and turned this into a non-event

[hurricanedude]

the current track still gives the NC outer banks and tidewater va a hefty dumping, KOCIN was referring to a non event for SNE not the MA

[Erica]

ETA still has the double low feature...That hardly ever happens

I'm waiting for the 0z GFS before i call this storm over.

Excellent point, and im not sure I believe the weak surface low idea either. If we look at the latest WV loop were already seeing the stream of sub-tropical moisture moving northeastward with the classic baroclinic leaf structure.



But, its the Stratocumulus deck located over the gulf stream that has me really worried, not just that the ETA's convectivly induced low multiple surface low pressure centers is incorrect, but also that the surface low may undergo bomb cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coast. Recall, the models prior to the January 25, 2000 Nor'easter had a weak surface low.

[mdguy25]

This one just aint in the cards
GGEm back well off shore as well

[verycoolnin]

But, its the Stratocumulus deck located over the gulf stream that has me really worried, not just that the ETA's convectivly induced low multiple surface low pressure centers is incorrect, but also that the surface low may undergo bomb cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coast. Recall, the models prior to the January 25, 2000 Nor'easter had a weak surface low.

wow, that went over my head.

[Craig286]

GFS coming in...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Anonymous]

GFS coming in...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _006.shtml

Yeah, will be interesting to see what it has to say, but realistically, how many times has the GFS been the first model to jump on a correct closer-to-coast solution? I believe with Jan 2000 it was the worst about shunting it out to sea, so if this run does show a hit we can really throw in the towel .

[Craig286]

Looks further east at 30 hours...

[Anonymous]

Noted.



-Jeb

[Anonymous]

00z GFS trends more positively tilted with the trough at 30hrs and pushes the precip shield east... it's over. This winter has had so many missed opportunities that I doubt we'll see anything the rest of Feb or March... bring on spring .