New ETA

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mdguy25
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New ETA

#1 Postby mdguy25 » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:38 pm

NOT good at all..

for anyone
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Heady Guy
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#2 Postby Heady Guy » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:40 pm

It was expected.
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#3 Postby yoda » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:41 pm

I am hoping this run is a hiccup.... but we will have to see what the GFS/GGEM do...
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:43 pm

00z ETA actually still looks good for Coastal Carolinas ... but it's developing the low further offshore ...
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#5 Postby yoda » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:44 pm

SF... could the 0z ETA Run be a model hiccup? Or will we not know until we see the new 0z GFS and GGEM?
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:44 pm

So much for any hopes of another January 2000. Looks like it's time to call this one off for good from the I-95 cities west, and if this run is right, even east of I-95 except for the immediate coastline.
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#7 Postby Heady Guy » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:46 pm

I really was not expecting much in my neck of the woods. It even looks iffy along the NJ coast in my opinon. Hopefully somebody gets a decent snow.
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#8 Postby hurricanedude » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:46 pm

then still looks good 4 VA BEACH!!!! I STILL GET HAMMERED EITHER WAY
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#9 Postby Craig286 » Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:52 pm

ETA still has the double low feature...That hardly ever happens

I'm waiting for the 0z GFS before i call this storm over.
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#10 Postby verycoolnin » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:03 pm

Man, you people live and die by the ETA. The storm hasn't even developed yet and alot of you seem to be throwing in the towel.
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#11 Postby Craig286 » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:04 pm

Not just that...Kocin just came on and turned this into a non-event :(
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#12 Postby hurricanedude » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:07 pm

the current track still gives the NC outer banks and tidewater va a hefty dumping, KOCIN was referring to a non event for SNE not the MA
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#13 Postby Erica » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:10 pm

Craig286 wrote:ETA still has the double low feature...That hardly ever happens

I'm waiting for the 0z GFS before i call this storm over.


Excellent point, and im not sure I believe the weak surface low idea either. If we look at the latest WV loop were already seeing the stream of sub-tropical moisture moving northeastward with the classic baroclinic leaf structure.

Image

But, its the Stratocumulus deck located over the gulf stream that has me really worried, not just that the ETA's convectivly induced low multiple surface low pressure centers is incorrect, but also that the surface low may undergo bomb cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coast. Recall, the models prior to the January 25, 2000 Nor'easter had a weak surface low.
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#14 Postby mdguy25 » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:18 pm

This one just aint in the cards
GGEm back well off shore as well
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#15 Postby verycoolnin » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:22 pm

But, its the Stratocumulus deck located over the gulf stream that has me really worried, not just that the ETA's convectivly induced low multiple surface low pressure centers is incorrect, but also that the surface low may undergo bomb cyclogenesis off the North Carolina coast. Recall, the models prior to the January 25, 2000 Nor'easter had a weak surface low.
wow, that went over my head.
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Craig286
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#16 Postby Craig286 » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:30 pm

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Anonymous

#17 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:34 pm


Yeah, will be interesting to see what it has to say, but realistically, how many times has the GFS been the first model to jump on a correct closer-to-coast solution? I believe with Jan 2000 it was the worst about shunting it out to sea, so if this run does show a hit we can really throw in the towel :lol:.
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#18 Postby Craig286 » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:44 pm

Looks further east at 30 hours... :(
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Anonymous

#19 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:44 pm

Noted.



-Jeb
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Anonymous

#20 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 16, 2004 10:45 pm

00z GFS trends more positively tilted with the trough at 30hrs and pushes the precip shield east... it's over. This winter has had so many missed opportunities that I doubt we'll see anything the rest of Feb or March... bring on spring :roll:.
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