Why does everyone change there mind w/ every model run?

molecules · #1 Postby **molecules** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:26 pm

It's amazing not really that much on this board, but on some boards on models goes opposite of last model 5 days out then every one is saying storm is cancelled. East coast storms are very complex systems and I think computer models have a hard time determining the track this far out. Why jump the 5 days away????? Relax be patient wait until 48-36 hours before the event takes place then you will have a better handle on this coastal Low or any coastal at that.

I just don't get it???? People change their view every run????

molecules · #2 Postby **molecules** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:27 pm

oops major typos w/ this post sorry!!! rough night last night....LOL

Lehigh · #3 Postby **Lehigh** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:30 pm

I agree with ya.

There is just no way to look beyond that 72 hour range.

Systems do change their track quickly.

Thanks for the comment.

Heady Guy · #4 Postby **Heady Guy** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:36 pm

Its over for DC and north. The latest GFS shows suppressed system. More in line with the euro from last night and other models. This storm never really had a chance to make it up the coast. To much going against it. I expect the euro which is oout shortly to continure with a suppressed track. This track is favorable for some members on this board.

molecules · #5 Postby **molecules** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:38 pm

Heady Guy wrote:Its over for DC and north. The latest GFS shows suppressed system. More in line with the euro from last night and other models. This storm never really had a chance to make it up the coast. To much going against it. I expect the euro which is oout shortly to continure with a suppressed track. This track is favorable for some members on this board.

Over?? It's 5 days out....I will wait until Sunday nights run then say if it's over north of DC.

Heady Guy · #6 Postby **Heady Guy** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:42 pm

5 days out ?

molecules · #7 Postby **molecules** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 5:44 pm

Heady Guy wrote:5 days out ?

The Low is 5 days away from here if you count today.

therock1811 · #8 Postby **therock1811** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 6:05 pm

I would say wait til the 0z...18z is not terribly reliable anyways...it's a run lite if you will...

#9 Postby **Erica** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 6:22 pm

Changing your mind with every model run (especially at this range) is not smart forecasting, in my opinion.

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 6:27 pm

Erica wrote:Changing your mind with every model run (especially at this range) is not smart forecasting, in my opinion.

100% Agreed!

#11 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 7:04 pm

with each model run is model hugging not forecasting. Forecasting is where you look at the models and say "gee, that's interesting" and then proceed to go with what YOU think will happen-not some mainframe's idea in a Central facility someplace.

Steve
8-)

Chris the Weather Man · #12 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 7:05 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:with each model run is model hugging not forecasting. Forecasting is where you look at the models and say "gee, that's interesting" and then proceed to go with what YOU think will happen-not some mainframe's idea in a Central facility someplace.

Steve

I agree, 100% Steve

cjh034 · #13 Postby **cjh034** » Sat Feb 21, 2004 11:26 pm

Amen everyone, if the 12z models tomorrow are like they were Friday, then all the model huggers here and on WW will be calling for a blizzard again in the MA. LOL!

Why does everyone change there mind w/ every model run?

Why does everyone change there mind w/ every model run?

Changing One's Minds

Re: Changing One's Minds

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