South Carib

[chadtm80]

Storms Firing this morning



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Lindaloo]

I agree!! Needs to be watched.

[cycloneye]

There is a broad low pressure area down there combined with a trough and divergence in the upper flow is creating that blob but there are no sign of a surface low there AT THIS TIME but if that area of convection persists for more than 24 hours as it formed early this morning then we have to take a second look.By the way some models are hinting of something forming down there but it is too early to conclude anything as more runs are needed to see consistency of them.

[Lindaloo]

Thanks Luis!!

[chadtm80]

Ditto.. Thanks for the insight Luis! BTW.. What models?

[chadtm80]

http://meteo.ec.gc.ca/data/satellite/go ... 70_100.jpg

https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/images/sa ... O8VS01.GIF

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG

[Guest]

Nice little blob,lots of shear though & its still early.

Lets see if it persist.

[ColdFront77]

Interesting... this going along with June and July being tranquil months.

[Anonymous]

Refer to my models thread...not a whole lot of change yet. Convection is firing on the other side of Central America too. Both areas are associated with the same 1007MB low ATTM.

[dixiebreeze]

Been watching that this morning. Maybe my prediction of a first Invest during the first two weeks of June will become a reality Still looks interesting as I speak:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[chadtm80]

Shots as of 1200pm EST

[lilbump3000]

Convection been looking healthy all morning. If this can presists over the next few days, we might have a storm before the season starts.

[dixiebreeze]

great images, Chad, thanks. This could get us started on the season if this blob persists 24 hours or more, as Luis noted.

[Rainband]

Great Images indeed. Dixie if this keeps up you may be right. We may see and invest. all the models I looked at last night..had a broad area. Time will tell

[MWatkins]

Hate to put a damper on this system with my thoughts on it...but here they are:

1. There is tons of shear down in the Caribbean...and this shear is forecast to persist for the next 7 days...although upper conditions are forecast to get a little more favorable south of 20N by days 6 and 7. Latest shear analysis from CIMMS suggests 20 to 30 knots at least:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

2. There are no indications that this convection is surface based...in fact all of the shear is creating some upper divergance which is enhancing thunderstorm activity down there.

3. If anything were to develop until it will probably result from the low in the EPAC. The UKMET does want to develop a TC in 5 days or so but it's entire possible that nothing gets going.

In any event...if a perfect confluence of events occurs and western Caribbean development does occur... strong shear past 20N means it will never become a problem for the US mainland.

Just my $0.02.

MW

[Dean4Storms]

Hate to put a damper on this system with my thoughts on it...but here they are:

1. There is tons of shear down in the Caribbean...and this shear is forecast to persist for the next 7 days...although upper conditions are forecast to get a little more favorable south of 20N by days 6 and 7. Latest shear analysis from CIMMS suggests 20 to 30 knots at least:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

2. There are no indications that this convection is surface based...in fact all of the shear is creating some upper divergance which is enhancing thunderstorm activity down there.

3. If anything were to develop until it will probably result from the low in the EPAC. The UKMET does want to develop a TC in 5 days or so but it's entire possible that nothing gets going.

In any event...if a perfect confluence of events occurs and western Caribbean development does occur... strong shear past 20N means it will never become a problem for the US mainland.

Just my $0.02.

MW

You beat me to the dampering, I had to go look into this system though shortly after seeing it on Sat. imagery. But you are right, we have a mid-UL trough and the divergence aloft is enhancing the convection along it. It should propogate westward and there are a couple models trying to develop this feature in a few days in the EPAC. But that is about all we can really look forward too with this feature. We will probably see the convection decrease throughout the day.

[dixiebreeze]

Mike, I always pay attention to your 2 cents worth I expect you are correct, but it might be fun to watch for a while. And, of course, stranger things have happened than to have a very early TS in this general area.

[Rainband]

The convection has decreased from earlier Images. We all want a system to watch. I appreciate the facts MW and Mike. Thats how we learn

[Anonymous]

The broad low is expected to split, one half going into the EPAC while the other sits in the SCARIB. All model data suggesting that there was a possibility of development didn't show anything until days 5-7. So if development would occur (simply by going along with models ) it's still a ways ahead. But based on climo you should expect the runs to change for the better with time. Today's NOGAPS continues to project a strong EPAC storm while the Caribbean low moves over land w/ no chance of development.

[chadtm80]

Yes, but there is just something about these Late may Blobs that gets my blood PUMPING.. lol