94L INVEST at 49 W 10 N -- CONVECTION......

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chadtm80

#21 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:11 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:FROM THE NHC TWO:
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.

What it means exactly?
"FAVORABLE PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE WAVE WESTWARD"



What they mean is the favorable pattern to produce showers and thunderstorms around the wave are going to follow it. Tropicaly speaking this wave is in to hostile of an enviroment to have any chance until it atleast gets into the western Carribean!


Exactly except the part about the Western carib.. Its not headed there
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#22 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:15 pm

HURAKAN wrote:FROM THE NHC TWO:
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.

What it means exactly?
"FAVORABLE PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE WAVE WESTWARD"



shear have been decreasing the last 24 hrs. :

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

i think that means the upper patter will allow the tw to sustain a good deal of convection. not saying it will develop but i wouldn't be surprised at all if it does!!
though i may be wrong in my interpretation of this!
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#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:16 pm

Tu estas bien en tu interpretacion Storms.

You are right in your interpretation Storms.
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#24 Postby *StOrmsPr* » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:Tu estas bien en tu interpretacion Storms.

You are right in your interpretation Storms.


well i have good teachers at S2K!!
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 15, 2004 2:26 pm

LOL !! :)
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#26 Postby abajan » Tue Jun 15, 2004 3:16 pm

The first batch of showers from this wave started affecting my house about 25 minutes ago.

Judging from the satellite pix, it appears that the heavier stuff will bypass Barbados and affect the islands to our north.

I'm signing off now (don't want to tie up my phone line) and will post more reports later.
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#27 Postby GalvestonDuck » Tue Jun 15, 2004 3:18 pm

Take care, Abajan! Report back when you can. :)
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 15, 2004 3:19 pm

abajan, in your location information you should also include the Solar System, and the Milky Way. 8-) :)
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#29 Postby The Cape Cod Storm » Tue Jun 15, 2004 4:36 pm

she'll have to be watched.
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#30 Postby abajan » Tue Jun 15, 2004 8:20 pm

There was a bit of distant thunder earlier but I haven't had much rain since my last report. Also, (again from looking at the satellite imagery) associated convection seems to have diminished significantly.
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#31 Postby abajan » Tue Jun 15, 2004 8:23 pm

HURAKAN wrote:abajan, in your location information you should also include the Solar System, and the Milky Way. 8-) :)


Indeed I should.

LOL
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Thanks

#32 Postby bevgo » Tue Jun 15, 2004 9:29 pm

Thanks Abajan for your reports from your area. I always forget that there are those of you that are affected from the islands also. Stay safe.
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#33 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 15, 2004 9:35 pm

It's just a tropical wave now. About 60-70 such waves traverse the tropical Atlantic each season. Less than 10% actually develop into a named storms, and that might be a generous estimate for early season and late season waves. Wind shear appears too high for development for the next few days at least. Perhaps if/when it reaches the central to western Caribbean in 4-6 days there might be a 10% chance of development. Nothing to get excited about. Alex won't form until August, most likely (at least I hope!). :wink:
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:02 pm

Is the wave moving westward? Don't worry! because the shear will also move westward! Development? At this point I will say, very slim.

Image

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#35 Postby abajan » Wed Jun 16, 2004 5:01 am

From looking at the ground outside I can state with some degree of certainty that there were few (if any) gusty winds and very little rain here overnight. However the sky does look like it will yeild some showers later.
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#36 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Jun 16, 2004 1:11 pm

Honestly I dont see any chance for development in the Atlantic basin for several days.
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