Caribbean area

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I found it by looking at the loops of the caribbean area and around 10n-81w there may be some weak rotation however it may be nothing significant.But folks dont jump quickly to say it will develop because many things have to occur and it has a very long way to go if it does at all but at least there is some convection in the area so let's see what happens there as it is at warm waters.Will it cross into the EPAC or will it stay in the caribbean is the question.

[CaluWxBill]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

I found it by looking at the loops of the caribbean area and around 10n-81w there may be some weak rotation however it may be nothing significant.But folks dont jump quickly to say it will develop because many things have to occur and it has a very long way to go if it does at all but at least there is some convection in the area so let's see what happens there as it is at warm waters.Will it cross into the EPAC or will it stay in the caribbean is the question.

Stormchaser noted it in his thread http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=33087

however just to the west in the EPAC is a system that is really being picked up by the AVN and possibly other models.

[Stormchaser16]

Yes, i have already pointed this out in a thread that i started... thanks Caluwxbill

Cycloneye: It's good to know tho, that at least i just wasnt seeing things LOL

Right now, the circulation appears to be along the coast, maybe headed inland, it is a pretty broad area and its quite hard to tell tho....... nonetheless it is yet another feature to watch

[Anonymous]

Strong easterly steering flow at the mid to low levels...EPAC bound.

[Stormchaser16]

Hmmmm yea true, didnt notice that, because it appeared to be going NNW, but yea it does look as if it will turn into the EPAC. Right now it is moreso being terrain steered.

[cycloneye]

Unless low flow weakens it will cross into the EPAC.

[Anonymous]

Hmmmm yea true, didnt notice that, because it appeared to be going NNW, but yea it does look as if it will turn into the EPAC. Right now it is moreso being terrain steered.

A lot of that energy is probably upper level...as the steering flow is more SErly in the 200-700MB layer of the atmosphere due to a ridge weakness aloft. However, whatever is at the low to mid levels will be carried W into the EPAC...where the global models have been indicating the development of another TC over the past few days.

[CaluWxBill]

Hmmmm yea true, didnt notice that, because it appeared to be going NNW, but yea it does look as if it will turn into the EPAC. Right now it is moreso being terrain steered.

A lot of that energy is probably upper level...as the steering flow is more SErly in the 200-700MB layer of the atmosphere due to a ridge weakness aloft. However, whatever is at the low to mid levels will be carried W into the EPAC...where the global models have been indicating the development of another TC over the past few days.

Yes this system is already forming and is west of the current system in discussion. I see definite potential in the wave in the coming days. Within 48 hours I think we will have a TS on our hands, and if it really gets organized we are looking at a possible Hurricane in the EPAC

[The Dark Knight]

I can't wait to see where this thing goes.....

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Well the convection has hanged on overnight north of Panama but we need more time for it to persist 24 hours and then we will see if the convection is still there.

[caneman]

This looks to be the area to watch. Looks to be pushing WNW to NW to me. What say you? Could be pretty quiet until the 26th as according to what I've heard, there have been only 7 named storms during this stretch in the past 100 years.

[cycloneye]

Some of the upper clouds are moving north but basicly it is not moving too much at this point.

[caneman]

Really surprised that there isn't more comment on this feature. Is it still forecasted to drift into E.Pac? I agree with you Cyc in that it seems to be sitting still as it is basically in the same area as yestrday. It Is persisiting. Am I missing something? BTW. Nice current shot from TWC.

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/sat ... large.html

[cycloneye]

Really surprised that there isn't more comment on this feature. Is it still forecasted to drift into E.Pac? I agree with you Cyc in that it seems to be sitting still as it is basically in the same area as yestrday. It Is persisiting. Am I missing something? BTW. Nice current shot from TWC.

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/sat ... large.html

I am very sure that they are monitering the area but they are waiting for more time to see plenty of data from stations in the area and from ships.

[Weatherboy1]

I'll tell you ... that area of disturbed weather sure looks more interesting tonight. I'm surprised the NHC didn't at least give it a mention.

A couple of surface stations to the W of that wave were reporting N and NNW winds and the surface pressures are fairly low:

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_a ... BASSETERRE

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_a ... BASSETERRE

Plus, there is an upper high building in the area, protecting it from some of the shear (though the area to the NW is less favorable):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Moreover, there is a break in the subtropical ridge to the N of the area (these CIMSS analyses show the steering currents for storms of various strength levels):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

So it seems we have a tropical wave in a relatively favorable environment with lots of convection and a potential path to the N (though this thing could still get swept up toward the EPAC). Is there something that augurs against development here that I'm missing?

[Dean4Storms]

It does look interesting just east of Nic. on visible loops. Will have to see if it sustains overnite and if it remains over water. I don't see much movement currently by this and it is in the same place as yesterday. I would expect a WNW to NW movement but anything is possible if it sits there and a low forms and deepens.

[caneman]

I agree. It's hung around for a couple days. Seems to be moving slowly NW. To me it is an area to watch. Yet eveyone ones to talk about a few clouds in the GOM. Would really like to see an analysis on this from Robb, TWW or MWatkins.

[TS Zack]

The system has sustained itself for 2 days now. It has move some mainly farther in the Carribbean. Just have to wait and see what happens. Everything looks to be right.
Jut like he said is their something I am missing too except for a little shear.

[Anonymous]

I agree. It's hung around for a couple days. Seems to be moving slowly NW. To me it is an area to watch. Yet eveyone ones to talk about a few clouds in the GOM. Would really like to see an analysis on this from Robb, TWW or MWatkins.

Hey caneman ...an upper trough is creating a lot of shear in that area. Model guidance doesn't show much of anything within the next few days. The low level steering flow should force the bulk of the moisture westward into Central America.

[rbaker]

persistance is the key alright, have seen some waning and refiring and a more nw movement in last 24 hr. wv image shows a ridge overhead from about Honduras south, but believe the tutt or upper low may retrograde to west, and even help with some outflow on north side of thunderstorm activity. If this system hangs together and moves up into the nw caribbean with shear lessening in that area this could get into the gom, and the trough coming down the east coast could be a path to the north or ne