Alex Advisories

[Stormsfury]

Actually, since 91L isn't an immediate threat to any landmass, they have the luxury of waiting on convective trends, and continued organization ... it could go either way at 11 pm tonight ...

T2.0 number do equate to 35 mph ... according to the Dvorak Satellite interpretation chart ...

SF

[Bane]

000
URNT12 KNHC 030119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0119Z
B. 32 DEG 29 MIN N
78 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1303 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NM
F. 044 DEG 62 KT
G. 321 DEG 010 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 17 C/ 1547 M
J. 21 C/ 1559 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 0.5/1.0 NM
P. AF866 0701A ALEX OB 08
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NW QUAD 0116Z.

[Stormsfury]

Whoa, the eyewall is down to 10 NM ... that's a significant contraction to the eyewall ...

SF

[Bane]

The pressure is down another MB. Closed eyewall 10 NM wide. Flight level winds 62 KT.

32.3 78.1

[WXBUFFJIM]

987 mb as of 0119Z 9:19 PM EDT. Eyewall remains closed. By 11 PM EDT, Alex potentially could be upgraded to minimal hurricane status. Keep an eye out, especially in the Outer Banks from Hatteras to Okracoke. Drumm Inlet may get a taste of this and likewise the Atlantic Beach/Cedar Island area. The worse quadrant, the northeast quadrant should remain offshore, thus minimal impact.

Again pressure is being shown at 987 mb, which means further strengthening, possibly to minimal hurricane status by 11 PM.

Jim

[ncweatherwizard]

Granted RECON did determine 987mb, but flight level winds were 62kts in the NW quadrant, which is currently the strongest portion of the storm; therefore, I will keep a tropical storm initially for this forecast...but hurricane likely soon.

Otherwise, nothing much new; a northeastward movement and out to sea.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /alex.html

[Stormsfury]

987 mb as of 0119Z 9:19 PM EDT. Eyewall remains closed. By 11 PM EDT, Alex potentially could be upgraded to minimal hurricane status. Keep an eye out, especially in the Outer Banks from Hatteras to Okracoke. Drumm Inlet may get a taste of this and likewise the Atlantic Beach/Cedar Island area. The worse quadrant, the northeast quadrant should remain offshore, thus minimal impact.

Again pressure is being shown at 987 mb, which means further strengthening, possibly to minimal hurricane status by 11 PM.

Jim

Also the compact size of Alex is helping as well ..

Not only the pressure down to 987 mb, the eyewall is still closed and contracted 15 NM (it's down to a 10 Nautical Mile Wide Eye now)

SF

[Pebbles]

Now the really question is..how long will it keep intensifying this round? Thoughts?

[NorthGaWeather]

Just from studing nexrad tonight it is on a NNE motion and if it continues this motion the Western eyewall will come dang close to Carteret County and the Outer Banks will get a nice taste of the Right quad.

[Stormsfury]

Now the really question is..how long will it keep intensifying this round? Thoughts?

The small compact size of Alex makes it very susceptible to its surrounding environment ... when shear begins to really impinge on the system, Alex is very likely to respond very quickly to that ... we still have a continued opportunity for further strengthening tonight before SW shear levels Alex off and reverses the trend.

SF

[SacrydDreamz]

987 mb as of 0119Z 9:19 PM EDT. Eyewall remains closed. By 11 PM EDT, Alex potentially could be upgraded to minimal hurricane status. Keep an eye out, especially in the Outer Banks from Hatteras to Okracoke. Drumm Inlet may get a taste of this and likewise the Atlantic Beach/Cedar Island area. The worse quadrant, the northeast quadrant should remain offshore, thus minimal impact.

Again pressure is being shown at 987 mb, which means further strengthening, possibly to minimal hurricane status by 11 PM.

Jim

If the storm is moving NE I would expect the SE quadrant to be the strongest with the NW quadrant the weakest.... the most additive effect occurs 90° to the storm's heading

[Valkhorn]

If the storm is moving NE I would expect the SE quadrant to be the strongest with the NW quadrant the weakest.... the most additive effect occurs 90° to the storm's heading

Are you tacking on the forward speed to the sustained winds? That's usually a blunder - and it's a myth. Sustained wind speeds are measured while the system is moving already. Wherever the recon finds the strongest winds, that's where they are. Direction has usually no bearing on the strongest part of a storm, and the northeast quandrant - whether the storm is moving east or west - is usually the strongest.

[Valkhorn]

So, that translates to possibly 65mph winds with the next advisory. Once the wind speeds match the pressure drop, it'll likely be a minimal hurricane - definately by the 5am advisory.

[Brent]

Sweet.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012004.html


kept this as a 60KT tropical storm, right on the border of cane intensity. going to be a close call

[SacrydDreamz]

If the storm is moving NE I would expect the SE quadrant to be the strongest with the NW quadrant the weakest.... the most additive effect occurs 90° to the storm's heading

Are you tacking on the forward speed to the sustained winds? That's usually a blunder - and it's a myth. Sustained wind speeds are measured while the system is moving already. Wherever the recon finds the strongest winds, that's where they are. Direction has usually no bearing on the strongest part of a storm, and the northeast quandrant - whether the storm is moving east or west - is usually the strongest.

Myth and blunder? No... check out some resources from the NHC and other credible sites. What I'm saying is that you cannot simply add 80mph and 18mph to get 98mph... but generally speaking the area of strongest winds are found at ~90° to the right of the storm's heading. Why do you think the area 90° to the right of the storm's heading generally sees the highest surge?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marinersguide.pdf Page 9

[bevgo]

I know this is not a cat 5 but I know all too well how bad even a minimal hurricane can be. You guys in the path of the rain and wind stay safe! I will keep all of you in my prayers.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Bane]

You must have missed it. It's been posted in another thread.

[HurricaneLover]

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on August 2, 2004


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alex...which is located about 95 miles south of
Wilmington North Carolina.
A strong tropical wave...accompanied by a well-defined low pressure
system...is centered about 680 miles east of the Windward Islands.
This system continues to become better organized and a tropical
depression could form on Tuesday as it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely
monitor the progress of the system over the next few days.
An area of low pressure...associated with another tropical wave...is
passing just south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Thunderstorm activity has become less organized this evening...and
cool waters immediately ahead of this system may limit development
over the next couple of days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
Forecaster Stewart