Alex Advisories
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- Stormsfury
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000
URNT12 KNHC 030119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0119Z
B. 32 DEG 29 MIN N
78 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1303 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NM
F. 044 DEG 62 KT
G. 321 DEG 010 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 17 C/ 1547 M
J. 21 C/ 1559 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 0.5/1.0 NM
P. AF866 0701A ALEX OB 08
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NW QUAD 0116Z.
URNT12 KNHC 030119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0119Z
B. 32 DEG 29 MIN N
78 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1303 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NM
F. 044 DEG 62 KT
G. 321 DEG 010 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 17 C/ 1547 M
J. 21 C/ 1559 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 0.5/1.0 NM
P. AF866 0701A ALEX OB 08
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NW QUAD 0116Z.
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- Stormsfury
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987 mb closed eyewall
987 mb as of 0119Z 9:19 PM EDT. Eyewall remains closed. By 11 PM EDT, Alex potentially could be upgraded to minimal hurricane status. Keep an eye out, especially in the Outer Banks from Hatteras to Okracoke. Drumm Inlet may get a taste of this and likewise the Atlantic Beach/Cedar Island area. The worse quadrant, the northeast quadrant should remain offshore, thus minimal impact.
Again pressure is being shown at 987 mb, which means further strengthening, possibly to minimal hurricane status by 11 PM.
Jim
Again pressure is being shown at 987 mb, which means further strengthening, possibly to minimal hurricane status by 11 PM.
Jim
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- Professional-Met
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Alex #7...same track...will keep a tropical storm for now
Granted RECON did determine 987mb, but flight level winds were 62kts in the NW quadrant, which is currently the strongest portion of the storm; therefore, I will keep a tropical storm initially for this forecast...but hurricane likely soon.
Otherwise, nothing much new; a northeastward movement and out to sea.
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /alex.html
Otherwise, nothing much new; a northeastward movement and out to sea.
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /alex.html
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- Stormsfury
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Re: 987 mb closed eyewall
WXBUFFJIM wrote:987 mb as of 0119Z 9:19 PM EDT. Eyewall remains closed. By 11 PM EDT, Alex potentially could be upgraded to minimal hurricane status. Keep an eye out, especially in the Outer Banks from Hatteras to Okracoke. Drumm Inlet may get a taste of this and likewise the Atlantic Beach/Cedar Island area. The worse quadrant, the northeast quadrant should remain offshore, thus minimal impact.
Again pressure is being shown at 987 mb, which means further strengthening, possibly to minimal hurricane status by 11 PM.
Jim
Also the compact size of Alex is helping as well ..
Not only the pressure down to 987 mb, the eyewall is still closed and contracted 15 NM (it's down to a 10 Nautical Mile Wide Eye now)
SF
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- Stormsfury
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Pebbles wrote:Now the really question is..how long will it keep intensifying this round? Thoughts?
The small compact size of Alex makes it very susceptible to its surrounding environment ... when shear begins to really impinge on the system, Alex is very likely to respond very quickly to that ... we still have a continued opportunity for further strengthening tonight before SW shear levels Alex off and reverses the trend.
SF
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- SacrydDreamz
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Re: 987 mb closed eyewall
WXBUFFJIM wrote:987 mb as of 0119Z 9:19 PM EDT. Eyewall remains closed. By 11 PM EDT, Alex potentially could be upgraded to minimal hurricane status. Keep an eye out, especially in the Outer Banks from Hatteras to Okracoke. Drumm Inlet may get a taste of this and likewise the Atlantic Beach/Cedar Island area. The worse quadrant, the northeast quadrant should remain offshore, thus minimal impact.
Again pressure is being shown at 987 mb, which means further strengthening, possibly to minimal hurricane status by 11 PM.
Jim
If the storm is moving NE I would expect the SE quadrant to be the strongest with the NW quadrant the weakest.... the most additive effect occurs 90° to the storm's heading
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If the storm is moving NE I would expect the SE quadrant to be the strongest with the NW quadrant the weakest.... the most additive effect occurs 90° to the storm's heading
Are you tacking on the forward speed to the sustained winds? That's usually a blunder - and it's a myth. Sustained wind speeds are measured while the system is moving already. Wherever the recon finds the strongest winds, that's where they are. Direction has usually no bearing on the strongest part of a storm, and the northeast quandrant - whether the storm is moving east or west - is usually the strongest.
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Evening Alex Forecast now out, cane soon
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012004.html
kept this as a 60KT tropical storm, right on the border of cane intensity. going to be a close call
kept this as a 60KT tropical storm, right on the border of cane intensity. going to be a close call
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- SacrydDreamz
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Valkhorn wrote:If the storm is moving NE I would expect the SE quadrant to be the strongest with the NW quadrant the weakest.... the most additive effect occurs 90° to the storm's heading
Are you tacking on the forward speed to the sustained winds? That's usually a blunder - and it's a myth. Sustained wind speeds are measured while the system is moving already. Wherever the recon finds the strongest winds, that's where they are. Direction has usually no bearing on the strongest part of a storm, and the northeast quandrant - whether the storm is moving east or west - is usually the strongest.
Myth and blunder? No... check out some resources from the NHC and other credible sites. What I'm saying is that you cannot simply add 80mph and 18mph to get 98mph... but generally speaking the area of strongest winds are found at ~90° to the right of the storm's heading. Why do you think the area 90° to the right of the storm's heading generally sees the highest surge?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marinersguide.pdf Page 9
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- dixiebreeze
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- HurricaneLover
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Alex still a storm and 91L still a wave!
Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on August 2, 2004
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alex...which is located about 95 miles south of
Wilmington North Carolina.
A strong tropical wave...accompanied by a well-defined low pressure
system...is centered about 680 miles east of the Windward Islands.
This system continues to become better organized and a tropical
depression could form on Tuesday as it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely
monitor the progress of the system over the next few days.
An area of low pressure...associated with another tropical wave...is
passing just south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Thunderstorm activity has become less organized this evening...and
cool waters immediately ahead of this system may limit development
over the next couple of days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
Forecaster Stewart
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alex...which is located about 95 miles south of
Wilmington North Carolina.
A strong tropical wave...accompanied by a well-defined low pressure
system...is centered about 680 miles east of the Windward Islands.
This system continues to become better organized and a tropical
depression could form on Tuesday as it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely
monitor the progress of the system over the next few days.
An area of low pressure...associated with another tropical wave...is
passing just south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Thunderstorm activity has become less organized this evening...and
cool waters immediately ahead of this system may limit development
over the next couple of days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
Forecaster Stewart
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