Bonnie Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#521 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:08 pm

rainstorm wrote:
i think you are forgetting this is a message board. have fun!!


And BTW...to each his own. How do you know that making fun of bad wannabe forecasters is not my idea of having fun? :D
0 likes   

rainstorm

#522 Postby rainstorm » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:11 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
rainstorm wrote:
i think you are forgetting this is a message board. have fun!!


And BTW...to each his own. How do you know that making fun of bad wannabe forecasters is not my idea of having fun? :D


awesome!!! :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#523 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:19 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:
lilbump3000 wrote:I still say they are turning this system way to early. You can clearly see that this system is basicly moveing due west. But only time will tell.


BINGO! The system is still moving west, because IMO the system isn't well-stacked and doesn't appear to have a well-defined LLC to be pulled northward by UL winds. I'm afraid that if it stays rather weak as it is, it will continue further west and possibly blow away all forecasts making it to the W. Caribbean as a tropical wave.


Ugh..then it blows up and is certain for a landfall somewhere... :eek:
0 likes   

ColdFront77

#524 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:19 pm

When they move too slow we here comments like, "It is moving to slow to develop." Now it moves "too" fast and and will dissipate. :roll:
0 likes   

ColdFront77

#525 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:21 pm

Tropical depressions, even tropical waves and mesoscale convective systems fall apart and redevelop and at least become minimal tropical storms.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Wed Aug 04, 2004 4:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

ColdFront77

#526 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:25 pm

Remember: This does not mean this system is going to move out to sea.

1.) It is a forecast model, same goes, of course with those models that have multiple tracks.

2.) There have been plenty of features that take a WNW, NNW and N turn than turn back toward the west moving at least closer to the Caribbean and/or U.S. east coast.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#527 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:29 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Remember: This does not mean this system is going to move out to sea.

1.) It is a forecast model, same goes, of course with those models that have multiple tracks.

2.) There have been plenty of features that take a WNW, NNW and N turn than turn back toward the west moving at least closer to the Caribbean and/or U.S. east coast.


We know dude. :roll:

Nice map.
0 likes   
#neversummer

ColdFront77

#528 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:30 pm

Brent why am I getting these type of feelings from you, first in the chatroom, now here (again)?

Many people see this sort of turn and figure it is going out to sea.
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#529 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:31 pm

Thanks Chad - it looks good!
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros

Guest

#530 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:49 pm

Great Map Chad.
0 likes   

User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:

TD#2 8 P.M.

#531 Postby lilbump3000 » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:52 pm

000
WTNT32 KNHC 032344
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE AUG 03 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...HEAVY SQUALLS WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE
...DOMINICA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF ST. LUCIA.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 230 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER
MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER SOUTH.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 57.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145318
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#532 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:53 pm

It is racing westbound and that is good news for me here as further west goes less impact Puerto Rico will have.But further west and if center reforms more south then it may be a player for the US.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#533 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:56 pm

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER
MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER SOUTH.


Uh oh. That delays the turn even more. :eek:
0 likes   
#neversummer

Guest

#534 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 03, 2004 6:59 pm

Yeah that is good for you Luis. However as i am sure you already know this does look to affect you in one way or another. Just a question of how much will it affect you.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#535 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 03, 2004 7:02 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Brent why am I getting these type of feelings from you, first in the chatroom, now here (again)?

Many people see this sort of turn and figure it is going out to sea.


If that track verifies, it WILL go out to sea.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

TD maybe a bit furthur South and possible Implications?

#536 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 03, 2004 7:06 pm

NHC indicated at 8pm that the LLC may be reforming furthur S. If this is the case and its continued to move due west there is an increasing chance that when Bonnie is picked up and turns NW then N she could be quite a bit furthur west(ala Cleo in '64 I think) which *could* make all the difference. If this scenario played out the turn could be delayed until she reaches the central/west carribean where then she heads NW then N and potentially affects the entire east coast from Florida N. Just something to think about...
0 likes   

caneman

Re: TD#2 8 P.M.

#537 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 03, 2004 7:07 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:000
WTNT32 KNHC 032344
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE AUG 03 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...HEAVY SQUALLS WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE
...DOMINICA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF ST. LUCIA.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 230 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER
MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER SOUTH.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...13.5 N... 57.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
Well this should change all the prognostications. Curious to see the next model mpas
0 likes   

Rainband

#538 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 03, 2004 7:07 pm

Time will tell if this system has an impact on the CONUS. Until then, it's wait and see :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#539 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Aug 03, 2004 7:08 pm

If that center relocates farther south, the present tracking maps are already obsolete. This is far more likely to become a player somewhere around the Florida Keys and possibly even the GOM eventually.
0 likes   

caneman

#540 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 03, 2004 7:08 pm

Yep, can't wait to see the new model runs. Should be interesting if this happens.
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests