Bonnie Advisories

[zoeyann]

warm water would certainly help it, but I think it needs to slow a bit before anything could develop. I don't know if there is anything that will slow it down. This one may give people some headaches trying to figure it out

[Anonymous]

Of course one thing against it if this track shows true....look at the Islands it will be crossing over....it would be toast!

[BayouVenteux]

Sounds plausible, but I have never heard of a mama trough digging so far down south. Has anyone ever heard of sucha anamoly?

A CONUS trof dropping deep into the tropics during the first week of August...let alone PANAMA!? That'd be a seriously anomalous anomaly.

[Storm Man]

Here's The New TD2 Models Notice: BAMM & UKMET Both Have It
Named In 12 hrs & Not making the north turn.What do you think?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[HURAKAN]

WNW turn right now doesn't seem very logical, and about the naming I'm still skeptical.

[Brent]

Throw them out. TD 2 is going to be an open wave at 11am. No Bonnie at least for a couple of days.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022004forecast.html


its a wave

[Guest]

I think this site gives a little bit more clearer picture.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite2/hurr ... girjpg.htm

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 04, 2004

...Watches and warnings discontinued as poorly-organized depression
continues rapidly westward...

At 11 am AST...1500z...all tropical storm watches and warnings have
been discontinued.

A tropical storm watch may be required for the Dominican Republic
and Haiti later today.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude
62.7 west or about 390 miles...625 km...southeast of San Juan
Puerto Rico.

The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. A
gradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-
northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Martinique reported sustained winds of 35 mph as the
depression passed by this morning. The depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if it
can maintain a closed wind circulation. However...if the
depression continues westward at its present motion...it could
dissipate later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Squalls in the windward and southern Leeward Islands will be
diminishing today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...13.8 N... 62.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.

[yoda]

You beat me to posting it by a few seconds Brent!!!

[yoda]

Derek... NHC disagrees with you and says its still there.. but barely.

[Air Force Met]

Guess they want to see if the center reforms under the mid level low, recon is done...they're going home.

[yoda]

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 04, 2004

...Watches and warnings discontinued as poorly-organized depression
continues rapidly westward...

At 11 am AST...1500z...all tropical storm watches and warnings have
been discontinued.

A tropical storm watch may be required for the Dominican Republic
and Haiti later today.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude
62.7 west or about 390 miles...625 km...southeast of San Juan
Puerto Rico.

The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. A
gradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-
northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Martinique reported sustained winds of 35 mph as the
depression passed by this morning. The depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if it
can maintain a closed wind circulation. However...if the
depression continues westward at its present motion...it could
dissipate later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Squalls in the windward and southern Leeward Islands will be
diminishing today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...13.8 N... 62.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.

What I find fascinating in this statement are 3 things which we can elaborate on later...

1.) Winds ARE STILL 35 mph
2) The depression STILL has a chance to become a TS.
3.) The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. Agradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.

Hmmm....

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 04, 2004

...Watches and warnings discontinued as poorly-organized depression
continues rapidly westward...

At 11 am AST...1500z...all tropical storm watches and warnings have
been discontinued.

A tropical storm watch may be required for the Dominican Republic
and Haiti later today.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude
62.7 west or about 390 miles...625 km...southeast of San Juan
Puerto Rico.

The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. A
gradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-
northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Martinique reported sustained winds of 35 mph as the
depression passed by this morning. The depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if it
can maintain a closed wind circulation. However...if the
depression continues westward at its present motion...it could
dissipate later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Squalls in the windward and southern Leeward Islands will be
diminishing today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...13.8 N... 62.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.

What I find fascinating in this statement are 3 things which we can elaborate on later...

1.) Winds ARE STILL 35 mph
2) The depression STILL has a chance to become a TS.
3.) The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. Agradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.

Hmmm....

they are doing that IN CASE the LLC holds together. If it does and it slows down, it very well could be Bonnie soon.

[caneman]

They current location is already West of these locations. Looks it will head thru the Bahamas or West assuming it stays together.

[Dan]

I would think that the constant firing of convection is the only real reason why the NHC wants to offically keep this as a TD. This storm is actually like Alex in the fact that the system is small. In result, if the LLC could become more defined, it could quickly get its act together and become a player.

[yoda]

New tracking maps at 11 take TD#2 right over DR.. which would rip this to shreds...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[Thunder44]

How can you say it can become a tropical storm in the 24 hours and say at the same time it could dissapate later today

[Derek Ortt]

actaully, there is no circ based upon recon. If I have to restart updates later, I will.

I guarantee you best track will have the feature as a wave at the present time, proving me correct. This was continued for continuity only

[yoda]

Tropical depression center located near 13.8n 62.7w at 04/1500z
position accurate within 60 nm

present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 22 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1011 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.8n 62.7w at 04/1500z
at 04/1200z center was located near 13.7n 61.7w

forecast valid 05/0000z 14.5n 65.4w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 15.6n 68.2w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 06/0000z 17.5n 70.5w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 20.0n 71.5w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 25.0n 72.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 30nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 08/1200z 29.0n 71.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Outlook valid 09/1200z 34.0n 68.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.8n 62.7w

next advisory at 04/2100z