Bonnie Advisories
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- BayouVenteux
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 775
- Age: 63
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 3:26 pm
- Location: Ascension Parish, Louisiana (30.3 N 91.0 W)
A CONUS trof dropping deep into the tropics during the first week of August...let alone PANAMA!?alxfamlaw wrote:Sounds plausible, but I have never heard of a mama trough digging so far down south. Has anyone ever heard of sucha anamoly?


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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
- Storm Man
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 64
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:48 pm
- Location: Coast Of Fla
- Contact:
TD#2 (Bonnie}
Here's The New TD2 Models Notice: BAMM & UKMET Both Have It
Named In 12 hrs & Not making the north turn.What do you think?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
Named In 12 hrs & Not making the north turn.What do you think?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
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I think this site gives a little bit more clearer picture.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite2/hurr ... girjpg.htm
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite2/hurr ... girjpg.htm
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-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
11 A.M. TD 2: Not dead, but on life support
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 04, 2004
...Watches and warnings discontinued as poorly-organized depression
continues rapidly westward...
At 11 am AST...1500z...all tropical storm watches and warnings have
been discontinued.
A tropical storm watch may be required for the Dominican Republic
and Haiti later today.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude
62.7 west or about 390 miles...625 km...southeast of San Juan
Puerto Rico.
The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. A
gradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-
northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Martinique reported sustained winds of 35 mph as the
depression passed by this morning. The depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if it
can maintain a closed wind circulation. However...if the
depression continues westward at its present motion...it could
dissipate later today.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Squalls in the windward and southern Leeward Islands will be
diminishing today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...13.8 N... 62.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 04, 2004
...Watches and warnings discontinued as poorly-organized depression
continues rapidly westward...
At 11 am AST...1500z...all tropical storm watches and warnings have
been discontinued.
A tropical storm watch may be required for the Dominican Republic
and Haiti later today.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude
62.7 west or about 390 miles...625 km...southeast of San Juan
Puerto Rico.
The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. A
gradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-
northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Martinique reported sustained winds of 35 mph as the
depression passed by this morning. The depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if it
can maintain a closed wind circulation. However...if the
depression continues westward at its present motion...it could
dissipate later today.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Squalls in the windward and southern Leeward Islands will be
diminishing today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...13.8 N... 62.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
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#neversummer
-
- Military Met
- Posts: 4372
- Age: 56
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
- Location: Roan Mountain, TN
- yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Re: 11 A.M. TD 2: Not dead, but on life support
Brent wrote:Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 04, 2004
...Watches and warnings discontinued as poorly-organized depression
continues rapidly westward...
At 11 am AST...1500z...all tropical storm watches and warnings have
been discontinued.
A tropical storm watch may be required for the Dominican Republic
and Haiti later today.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude
62.7 west or about 390 miles...625 km...southeast of San Juan
Puerto Rico.
The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. A
gradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-
northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Martinique reported sustained winds of 35 mph as the
depression passed by this morning. The depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if it
can maintain a closed wind circulation. However...if the
depression continues westward at its present motion...it could
dissipate later today.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Squalls in the windward and southern Leeward Islands will be
diminishing today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...13.8 N... 62.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
What I find fascinating in this statement are 3 things which we can elaborate on later...
1.) Winds ARE STILL 35 mph
2) The depression STILL has a chance to become a TS.
3.) The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. Agradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.
Hmmm....

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-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: 11 A.M. TD 2: Not dead, but on life support
yoda wrote:Brent wrote:Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 04, 2004
...Watches and warnings discontinued as poorly-organized depression
continues rapidly westward...
At 11 am AST...1500z...all tropical storm watches and warnings have
been discontinued.
A tropical storm watch may be required for the Dominican Republic
and Haiti later today.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.8 north...longitude
62.7 west or about 390 miles...625 km...southeast of San Juan
Puerto Rico.
The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. A
gradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-
northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Martinique reported sustained winds of 35 mph as the
depression passed by this morning. The depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours if it
can maintain a closed wind circulation. However...if the
depression continues westward at its present motion...it could
dissipate later today.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Squalls in the windward and southern Leeward Islands will be
diminishing today.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...13.8 N... 62.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
What I find fascinating in this statement are 3 things which we can elaborate on later...
1.) Winds ARE STILL 35 mph
2) The depression STILL has a chance to become a TS.
3.) The depression is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr. Agradual reduction in forward speed with a turn to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours.
Hmmm....
they are doing that IN CASE the LLC holds together. If it does and it slows down, it very well could be Bonnie soon.
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#neversummer
- Dan
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 93
- Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2003 11:04 am
- Location: Marion North Carolina
- Contact:
I would think that the constant firing of convection is the only real reason why the NHC wants to offically keep this as a TD. This storm is actually like Alex in the fact that the system is small. In result, if the LLC could become more defined, it could quickly get its act together and become a player.
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- yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
New tracking maps at 11 take TD#2 right over DR.. which would rip this to shreds...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html
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- yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
Tropical depression center located near 13.8n 62.7w at 04/1500z
position accurate within 60 nm
present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 22 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1011 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 13.8n 62.7w at 04/1500z
at 04/1200z center was located near 13.7n 61.7w
forecast valid 05/0000z 14.5n 65.4w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 05/1200z 15.6n 68.2w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 06/0000z 17.5n 70.5w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 06/1200z 20.0n 71.5w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 07/1200z 25.0n 72.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 30nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 08/1200z 29.0n 71.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
Outlook valid 09/1200z 34.0n 68.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.8n 62.7w
next advisory at 04/2100z
position accurate within 60 nm
present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 22 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1011 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 13.8n 62.7w at 04/1500z
at 04/1200z center was located near 13.7n 61.7w
forecast valid 05/0000z 14.5n 65.4w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 05/1200z 15.6n 68.2w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 06/0000z 17.5n 70.5w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 06/1200z 20.0n 71.5w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Forecast valid 07/1200z 25.0n 72.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 30nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 08/1200z 29.0n 71.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
Outlook valid 09/1200z 34.0n 68.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.8n 62.7w
next advisory at 04/2100z
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