Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 6
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 04, 2004
...Depression degenerates to a tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean Sea...
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft this morning...and
satellite imagery this afternoon...indicate that Tropical
Depression Two has lost its surface circulation and has degenerated
into a tropical wave.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the remnants of Tropical Depression Two were
located near latitude 13.5 north...longitude 63.5 west or about 380
miles...610 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.
The remnants of the depression are moving toward the west near 23
mph ...37 km/hr. A west-northwest motion is expected over the next
24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds associated with the wave are near 35 mph...
55 km/hr...with higher gusts. This system still has the potential
to bring gusty winds and heavy rains to Hispaniola over the next
couple of days. An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow morning for signs
of regeneration.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.5 N... 63.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs.
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 04, 2004
we gave the depression the benefit of the doubt this morning when
the reconnaissance aircraft couldn't close off a center. This
afternoon the convection has become elongated east-west and less
concentrated...and there is no reason to believe the system has
re-developed a surface circulation. Given the lack of a center
this morning and the observed convective trends since then...
advisories are being discontinued at this time.
Model guidance has changed since this morning. The GFDL...which
earlier strengthened the depression and took it northwest and then
north...now takes the system west and dissipates it. The GFS also
now agrees with this scenario. The major threat from this system
would be if it moved far enough north to bring rainfall to
Hispaniola.
An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate
the remnants of the depression tomorrow morning...if necessary.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 04/2100z 13.5n 63.5w 30 kt...dissipating
12hr VT 05/0600z...dissipated
Just so I don't eat crow again. I say this becomes a Cat2 cane and hits Mississippi 
JK. 
