Bonnie Advisories

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ColdFront77

#721 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:31 pm

c5Camille wrote:because the "whole environment" was moving at the same speed...

kind of like staking cards while sitting in a winabego
doing 65 down the freeway

Yup. :)

Brent wrote:When Claudette was classified at first, recon had BARELY closed off a center. In fact, they really really really didn't. It was a stretch. The reason they went ahead and upgraded was because it was producing tropical storm force winds. It took them 7 hours to find it as they were leaving as well, meaning it had likely just barely closed off while they were there.

Yup. :)
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Thunder44
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#722 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:42 pm

Brent wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:Do we actually know why what became Claudette developed nicely moving 20 to 25 miles per hour when "she" was moving into and through the Caribbean Sea?


When Claudette was classified at first, recon had BARELY closed off a center. In fact, they really really really didn't. It was a stretch. The reason they went ahead and upgraded was because it was producing tropical storm force winds. It took them 7 hours to find it as they were leaving as well, meaning it had likely just barely closed off while they were there.


I disagree. Just because they took a long time to find the LLC doesn't make it any less real. Unlike this morning, they DID closed of a center and it was much better organzied than "TD 2" was now. If they didn't close of a center, they wouldn't have issue classify as a TC, but they would of probably sent another plane soon afterwards.
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Derek Ortt

#723 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:44 pm

Its being sheared. Take a look at the west winds across the Carib. This environment is not favorable at all
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#724 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:47 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
Brent wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:Do we actually know why what became Claudette developed nicely moving 20 to 25 miles per hour when "she" was moving into and through the Caribbean Sea?


When Claudette was classified at first, recon had BARELY closed off a center. In fact, they really really really didn't. It was a stretch. The reason they went ahead and upgraded was because it was producing tropical storm force winds. It took them 7 hours to find it as they were leaving as well, meaning it had likely just barely closed off while they were there.


I disagree. Just because they took a long time to find the LLC doesn't make it any less real. Unlike this morning, they DID closed of a center and it was much better organzied than "TD 2" was now. If they didn't close of a center, they wouldn't have issue classify as a TC, but they would of probably sent another plane soon afterwards.


Claudette was defintely more organized. It looked like a tropical storm before it hit the islands(and wasn't official until the next day).
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NorthGaWeather

#725 Postby NorthGaWeather » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:48 pm

The environment right now is favorable maybe not in 24 hrs.
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#726 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:50 pm

Everything is upside down, Alex was supposed to weaken and it has intensified to 105 mph, TD #2 was expected to intensify to TS Bonnie but it looks to have downgraded to a tropical wave.
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Guest

#727 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 04, 2004 2:54 pm

Hurakan, ever heard of polar shifts. Could be it be that the north is getting warmer and the south colder. Who knows, I jsut decided to throw something out there. hehehee
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TD 2 Convection blooming.....

#728 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:22 pm

this afternoon, in spite of shear. Don't think I'll write this one off quite yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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ColdFront77

#729 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:23 pm

I don't think any of us are writing Tropical Depression #2 off. Even if it is downgraded before a potential upgrade to Tropical Depression and higher status.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#730 Postby TS Zack » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:25 pm

Banding features to the North.
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Guest

#731 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:25 pm

Man that thing is really moving along, by the end of this weekend we should at least know what part of the US will likely affected?
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TD 2 T# still at 1.5/2.5.........

#732 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:26 pm

seems to indicate something is still stirring -- alex a 5.0/5.0
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Rainband

#733 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:27 pm

When you posted that I was thinking shear induced convection. I just looked and thats not the case. Maybe this is going to be a season of surprises :eek: Just so I don't eat crow again. I say this becomes a Cat2 cane and hits Mississippi :lol: JK. 8-)
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#734 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:28 pm

:lol: Yes, Rainband, this convection seems for real for sure.
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#735 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:31 pm

Hmmmmmm.... :)
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Guest

#736 Postby Guest » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:33 pm

Okay, yes I am green as the jolly green giant, but what the hell is "eating crow."?
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5 P.M.: TD 2 has passed away

#737 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:34 pm

:cry:

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 6

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 04, 2004

...Depression degenerates to a tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean Sea...

Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft this morning...and
satellite imagery this afternoon...indicate that Tropical
Depression Two has lost its surface circulation and has degenerated
into a tropical wave.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the remnants of Tropical Depression Two were
located near latitude 13.5 north...longitude 63.5 west or about 380
miles...610 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.

The remnants of the depression are moving toward the west near 23
mph ...37 km/hr. A west-northwest motion is expected over the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds associated with the wave are near 35 mph...
55 km/hr...with higher gusts. This system still has the potential
to bring gusty winds and heavy rains to Hispaniola over the next
couple of days. An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow morning for signs
of regeneration.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.5 N... 63.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs.

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 04, 2004

we gave the depression the benefit of the doubt this morning when
the reconnaissance aircraft couldn't close off a center. This
afternoon the convection has become elongated east-west and less
concentrated...and there is no reason to believe the system has
re-developed a surface circulation. Given the lack of a center
this morning and the observed convective trends since then...
advisories are being discontinued at this time.

Model guidance has changed since this morning. The GFDL...which
earlier strengthened the depression and took it northwest and then
north...now takes the system west and dissipates it. The GFS also
now agrees with this scenario. The major threat from this system
would be if it moved far enough north to bring rainfall to
Hispaniola.
An Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate
the remnants of the depression tomorrow morning...if necessary.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/2100z 13.5n 63.5w 30 kt...dissipating
12hr VT 05/0600z...dissipated
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#738 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:37 pm

Given the fast west motion, one would figure this depression has at least temporarily lost it's life if not permanently.
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#739 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:40 pm

It's been downgraded to a wave. It's over, at least for now.
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NorthGaWeather

#740 Postby NorthGaWeather » Wed Aug 04, 2004 3:45 pm

I seriously doubt its gone permanently.
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