Bonnie Advisories
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- yoda
- Category 5
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True. But, If it were to develop, where would it go? Latest model runs as of 12 UTC paint a picture of either the Yucutan as the BAMD says, or into the GOM, which the A98E and the BAMM suggest. If you extrapolate what the A98E and BAMD say, then you could see a TC landfall somewhere in the Central Gulf soon, but not for another 5 days or so. This will have to be watched though...
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- hurricanemike
- Professional-Met
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Derek Ortt wrote:It doesn't look impressive to me. Just looks like a flare up that will likely die down in a few hours. Plus, it is being sheared fairly heavily at the present time
Hate to say this, but I agree. Last night it did the exact same thing only to completely fall apart within 6 hours. If this holds together today and tonight, maybe something can get going, if not, no.
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#neversummer
- dixiebreeze
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- dixiebreeze
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- dixiebreeze
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- Trader Ron
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- Category 5
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- Hyperstorm
- Category 5
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Hmmm...There is still a jet of strong (+25kts) westerly winds cutting straight into the center of the system.
So no....no evasion of shear today...Sorry.
So no....no evasion of shear today...Sorry.
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Category 5
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Agreed hyperstorm....... this system is not evading the shear, as shear is all over the Caribbean today.... it is maintaining good convection, but just taking a look at the western side of the convection tells you that there is very strong shear. Also, ANY llc is unlikely to be underneath it, it would be exposed out to the western edge.
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Look at the water vapor image loop. The big high pressure system over the southeast looks like it is starting to bridge north of the islands. This should roll the shear rapidly west as an ULL. The more favorable conditions are already in the official forecast. Warmer SST's near Jamaica should also help fuel development. The trough looks like it is arriving a little too early to deflect the storm east. Any of you pros with better eyes see a deeper second impulse that I'm missing?
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The trof will stall over centeral florida this weekend for who knows how long.Nimbus wrote:Look at the water vapor image loop. The big high pressure system over the southeast looks like it is starting to bridge north of the islands. This should roll the shear rapidly west as an ULL. The more favorable conditions are already in the official forecast. Warmer SST's near Jamaica should also help fuel development. The trough looks like it is arriving a little too early to deflect the storm east. Any of you pros with better eyes see a deeper second impulse that I'm missing?

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- dixiebreeze
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"Look at the water vapor image loop. The big high pressure system over the southeast looks like it is starting to bridge north of the islands. This should roll the shear rapidly west as an ULL. The more favorable conditions are already in the official forecast."
Good points, Nimbus. Conditions will soon be more favorable.
Good points, Nimbus. Conditions will soon be more favorable.
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