Bonnie Advisories

yoda · #801 Postby **yoda** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:48 am

True. But, If it were to develop, where would it go? Latest model runs as of 12 UTC paint a picture of either the Yucutan as the BAMD says, or into the GOM, which the A98E and the BAMM suggest. If you extrapolate what the A98E and BAMD say, then you could see a TC landfall somewhere in the Central Gulf soon, but not for another 5 days or so. This will have to be watched though...

zoeyann · #802 Postby **zoeyann** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:54 am

The NHc doesn't seem to be impressed with it this morning on the discussion, but it looks healthier to me

#803 Postby **hurricanemike** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:56 am

Too early to say where it could go....ultimately...anywhere from the Yucutan/GOM to S Florida.

c5Camille · #804 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 9:49 am

IMO they won't call it anything untill a plane
checks it out... they don't want this thing popping
on and off the board without the data to support
it...

Derek Ortt · #805 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 9:55 am

It doesn't look impressive to me. Just looks like a flare up that will likely die down in a few hours. Plus, it is being sheared fairly heavily at the present time

Website · #806 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:01 am

Derek Ortt wrote:It doesn't look impressive to me. Just looks like a flare up that will likely die down in a few hours. Plus, it is being sheared fairly heavily at the present time

Hate to say this, but I agree. Last night it did the exact same thing only to completely fall apart within 6 hours. If this holds together today and tonight, maybe something can get going, if not, no.

#807 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:49 am

the shear pretty well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

c5Camille · #808 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:52 am

this girl is coming to the GOM....
it's just a matter of what condition
she's in when she arrives....
if the shear lets up she's gonna
explode

#809 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:54 am

I agree, Camille. It looks like she has snuck under the shear in pretty good fashion. Shades of Elena?

c5Camille · #810 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:55 am

elana was a pingpong ball....
we surfed the swells from that
storm for a solid week!

and my dad lost his house in that one...

Guest · #811 Postby **Guest** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 10:58 am

I don't know about you goys and gals but "I AM GETTING SCARED." j/k

#812 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:01 am

Never scared, alx, just alert. That's the ticket.

c5Camille · #813 Postby **c5Camille** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:02 am

make sure you have your board waxed and
ready to go!

pray for waves!

#814 Postby **Trader Ron** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:05 am

My Board is ready. I don't know about my body. lol..

...j/k..

Stormchaser16 · #815 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:07 am

Still strong westerly/SWrly shear over ex TD2

Hyperstorm · #816 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:14 am

Hmmm...There is still a jet of strong (+25kts) westerly winds cutting straight into the center of the system.

So no....no evasion of shear today...Sorry.

Stormchaser16 · #817 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:15 am

Agreed hyperstorm....... this system is not evading the shear, as shear is all over the Caribbean today.... it is maintaining good convection, but just taking a look at the western side of the convection tells you that there is very strong shear. Also, ANY llc is unlikely to be underneath it, it would be exposed out to the western edge.

Nimbus · #818 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:28 am

Look at the water vapor image loop. The big high pressure system over the southeast looks like it is starting to bridge north of the islands. This should roll the shear rapidly west as an ULL. The more favorable conditions are already in the official forecast. Warmer SST's near Jamaica should also help fuel development. The trough looks like it is arriving a little too early to deflect the storm east. Any of you pros with better eyes see a deeper second impulse that I'm missing?

Rainband · #819 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:31 am

Nimbus wrote:Look at the water vapor image loop. The big high pressure system over the southeast looks like it is starting to bridge north of the islands. This should roll the shear rapidly west as an ULL. The more favorable conditions are already in the official forecast. Warmer SST's near Jamaica should also help fuel development. The trough looks like it is arriving a little too early to deflect the storm east. Any of you pros with better eyes see a deeper second impulse that I'm missing?

The trof will stall over centeral florida this weekend for who knows how long. :eek:

#820 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 11:33 am

"Look at the water vapor image loop. The big high pressure system over the southeast looks like it is starting to bridge north of the islands. This should roll the shear rapidly west as an ULL. The more favorable conditions are already in the official forecast."

Good points, Nimbus. Conditions will soon be more favorable.

Bonnie Advisories

Looks like ex-TD 2 is evading......

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