Gray downgrades numbers a tad

[hurricanetrack]

Dr. Gray took the overall numbers down to 13 7 3

While-

Tropical storm risk RAISED their numbers to roughly 14 8 3

Bottom line: knarly hurricane season looks likely even with a weak El Nino possible.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 4/aug2004/

[HURAKAN]

Every year the same thing, because the season has not being active, he may have said, let just lower a little bit the forecast. Also, every year he may say, "Well, I was out just by 3 or 4 tropical systems, which makes my forecast right".

[stormcloud]

Acknowledging an 'explosion' of storms is possible, lowering the the number of storms makes sense. We are beginning to run out of time to get the original number forecasted by Dr. Gray.

[jlauderdal]

Dr. Gray took the overall numbers down to 13 7 3

While-

Tropical storm risk RAISED their numbers to roughly 14 8 3

Bottom line: knarly hurricane season looks likely even with a weak El Nino possible.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 4/aug2004/

[abajan]

His teams present prediction is exactly what they stated on December 5, 2003. Maybe they should have just made that one prediction and take a vacation!

LOL

[jlauderdal]

His teams present prediction is exactly what they stated on December 5, 2003. Maybe they should have just made that one prediction and take a vacation!

LOL

Exactly, spend the money on something more productive like intensity forecasting. Now that could make a difference.

[Trader Ron]

Exactly what i predicted for Dr Gray's update.
I'm taking my numbers down to 11/5/2 from 12/6/2. I think i'm still high. We'll see.

[Derecho]

Always mystified why Gray, of all people, making quite clear, easily verified predictions on a regular schedule, who has been a real pioneer in the science, and who fairly clearly demonstrates actual skill in what he foreceasts, seems to generate such hostility and contempt.

[Derecho]

Acknowledging an 'explosion' of storms is possible, lowering the the number of storms makes sense. We are beginning to run out of time to get the original number forecasted by Dr. Gray.

Could have nothing form for two weeks and easily make those numbers.

[Trader Ron]

One more thing. I'm surprised Dr Gray didn't take his numbers down more. If Shear persists, it will be a very quiet Hurricane season.

[Trader Ron]

I thought we were going to be "Inundated" by storms. I'm still waiting.lol..

Dr Dray and The NHC work together. Dr Gray is "Brilliant" J.M.O.

[Hyperstorm]

I still don't understand the amount of weight people put into what someone else says? It's like you don't have your own opinion and/or view of things. Everyone knew since the beginning of the season that the majority of the factors will be favorable for development and just because Dr. Gray lowers his numbers by "1", the season will end up being inactive? I just knew this was going to happen.

Of course, here we're talking about a quite respected forecaster who has been doing this for years, but does that mean he's ALWAYS right? Honestly this forecast doesn't make me lose my sleep. Why? This is the same strategy Dr. Gray uses ALMOST EVERY single year. Since 1995, you can barely count the number of times he has kept his initial forecast the same and/or raise the numbers in the August update. This is done only to be proven otherwise when the season ends.

Here's what I mean, since 1995 almost every season gets the numbers lowered in the August update and we end up having more activity than what he had even predicted at the beginning of the forecast. In VERY rare times, is his final forecast over what we have for the year. Just wait and you'll see.

Just as Derecho said, there's still plenty of time left in the season hence we can easily reach the original numbers he predicted, even if we stay in a quiet period for a few weeks.

[Brent]

PEOPLE! It is Early August! The peak of hurricane season is not for 5 weeks.

[jlauderdal]

Always mystified why Gray, of all people, making quite clear, easily verified predictions on a regular schedule, who has been a real pioneer in the science, and who fairly clearly demonstrates actual skill in what he foreceasts, seems to generate such hostility and contempt.

I think some people view at as a so what if he predicts 5,10 or 15. Does it really matter? What do people actually do with the info except for write articles about it? Maybe someone can justify why the number really matters. Now if he could pinpoint exact locations than we would be on to something but that would be an awfully big expectation to fill.

[Agua]

His numbers could have immense value for actuaries, if they become accepted as having reliability. Does anyone know if any underwriters presently use his (or anyone else's) numbers?

[Lindaloo]

IMO, he should stick to his first numbers of the season. If he busts, he busts.

[jlauderdal]

His numbers could have immense value for actuaries, if they become accepted as having reliability. Does anyone know if any underwriters presently use his (or anyone else's) numbers?

My rates for hurricane insurance are set long before he releases his forecast. So we are still searching for a good reason for these predictions?

[Guest]

so if some forecasts snow for YOU 48 hrs in advanced... but then warm comes in and it turns to ice or rain.... that forecast should NOT be updated?

ohhhhkay....

IMO, he should stick to his first numbers of the season. If he busts, he busts.

[Agua]

His numbers could have immense value for actuaries, if they become accepted as having reliability. Does anyone know if any underwriters presently use his (or anyone else's) numbers?

My rates for hurricane insurance are set long before he releases his forecast. So we are still searching for a good reason for these predictions?

It wouldn't have to do with setting your current rates as much as determining how much the carriers should set aside as reserve in anticipated losses for a given risk, which, ultimately helps determine what the insurer can pocket as profit.

[Lindaloo]

so if some forecasts snow for YOU 48 hrs in advanced... but then warm comes in and it turns to ice or rain.... that forecast should NOT be updated?

ohhhhkay....

IMO, he should stick to his first numbers of the season. If he busts, he busts.

This is totally different! If you are going to put yourself out there with numbers then you should stick to them. You should be able to understand the busts though right DT?