Bonnie Advisories

[Pileus]

Sorry try that again. What happened to Tex and La being possible targets?
Thats all Ive heard until now.

[Stormcenter]

O.K. maybe I'm jumping the gun here but this
baby looks like she is Bonnie in the making.
Make sure you speed up the frames to view
the organization better.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=16

[Anonymous]

Yes, it is really close to being upgraded imo. Im getting more and more worried as this thing gets stronger.

[freeport_texas2005]

i still say its going towards la/tx...but if im wrong it wont be the first time

[Anonymous]

Its timing thats everything...This trough better hurry up if it wants turn this and push it into the northern gulf coast (ALA, MIS, FLA). Its already clearing the Yucatan and emerging into the gulf.

[Brent]

WOW... seems to be moving quicker than I thought. Defintely looks like Bonnie.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Please calm down....there isn't even a sign of a surface circulation based on visible satellite pictures...just barely a mid-level circulation.

It may develop...just not now....especially with 12 hours of any sustainable deep-ish convection...there needs to be at least 24-36.

[Anonymous]

Eh.. I think it looks pretty good right now... I can see a spin, and this radar suggest it also...

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

[Brent]

Please calm down....there isn't even a sign of a surface circulation based on visible satellite pictures...just barely a mid-level circulation.

It may develop...just not now....especially with 12 hours of any sustainable deep-ish convection...there needs to be at least 24-36.

It could put down an LLC VERY quickly with the rate of explosive development that is going on now.

[Derek Ortt]

OK OK

A flare up of convection does not mean an increase in organization. There is no surface center. Development is possible, though initially it will likely be slow

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Houstoner: The spin is clearly at the mid-levels, and it is very weak as well.

Brent: I understand what you may think, however, we do not know if this "explosion" of convection is just because of afternoon convectivity or not. As far as we know, it could easily go back down overnight.

If it does persist overnight and through tomorrow, however, you can expect a greater possibility of development.

[Rainband]

Good points derek and DocHurricane!!

[MGC]

I am not buying into the sharp right hand turn the models are forecasting. Here is why: The models are handeling the front that is coming down typical of a frontal system of say October. Typically, fronts are oriented SW-NW during late fall. However, weak fronts typical of summer are usually oriented W-E as they stall in the northern GOM. Therefor steering currents do not support a sharp right turn.....MGC

[Rainband]

Nothing has been typical this year!!

[Guest]

[chadtm80]

Better view?

[bkhusky2]

What about the Cancun radar? I've saved the last few images and manually looped them and there does appear to be some spin at the surface. It's not well defined, but there is some surface rotation.

[HouTXmetro]

I am not buying into the sharp right hand turn the models are forecasting. Here is why: The models are handeling the front that is coming down typical of a frontal system of say October. Typically, fronts are oriented SW-NW during late fall. However, weak fronts typical of summer are usually oriented W-E as they stall in the northern GOM. Therefor steering currents do not support a sharp right turn.....MGC

Well on the latest map it looks like a traditional front, SW-NE. So maybe the models are right?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Radars can pick up mid-level rotations as well...especially at the longer distances required to reach 02L.

[jlauderdal]

What about the Cancun radar? I've saved the last few images and manually looped them and there does appear to be some spin at the surface. It's not well defined, but there is some surface rotation.

That cancun radar site must be on a 14.4 connection.