Bonnie Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
washington
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

#1461 Postby washington » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:31 pm

Bonnie should start to see to feel the effects of the through coming down and should start moving to the north.
0 likes   

Rainband

#1462 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:31 pm

The NHC says wnw. I say wnw :wink:
0 likes   

SCUBAdude
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Joined: Fri May 28, 2004 10:40 pm
Location: Gulf Shores, Alabama

#1463 Postby SCUBAdude » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:31 pm

I just keep it simple. I go with the NHC forecast for where and when. IMO they have been a right a whole lot more often than wrong in the last few years. I read this forum to get more insight as to why a system might or might not do a certain thing. It also give's me a heads up before any official changes might be made to a forecast. Plus I love all the cool links provided here.
But when it comes down to the pucker factor, I go with the NHC.
And yes I do agree, it seems like anyone can conjure up any sort of argument as to why a storm will hit their area, despite official forecasts.
0 likes   

washington
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

#1464 Postby washington » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:32 pm

Good point it needs to turning soon because if it does not shift the track to the west.
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#1465 Postby NorthGaWeather » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:33 pm

The turn to a NE motion should occur tommorrow then a more North motion after that before it makes landfall.
0 likes   

Josephine96

#1466 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:34 pm

The quicker it moves to the North.. the quicker it turns NE.. and depending on it's latitude.. the further East or even SE it makes landfall..

Us here in the Peninsula still need to keep a close eye on it..
0 likes   

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

#1467 Postby Agua » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:34 pm

Wouldn't the WNW track give the front that is going to shunt it east time to get further south, and thus, potentially move Bonnie further to the east?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145322
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1468 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:35 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 101823
97779 18234 30236 89700 15200 22029 18112 /2542 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 08

They are still flying around Bonnie.23.6n-89.7w

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:

#1469 Postby MWatkins » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:36 pm

MdWx wrote:
Stormchaser16 wrote:But didnt you say "its headed into mexico as a weak TD.... woopie" ???????? in another thread? Sorry dave, not attacking you here, but i cannot validate your remarks


I find it funny how many "indepedent" casters on here had it a Hurricane twisting out to sea last week before it was even named.


So did the NHC. Their 120 hour verification stats could be 600NM or more off.

Once again proving how little is known about intensity forecasting.

You would be better off betting on football games than trying to guess intensity.

MW
0 likes   
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack

Josephine96

#1470 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:37 pm

Agua.. I'm not an expert.. But I will risk being bashed and state that I believe so.. Where the trough picks it up is the key..

All I hear all day is that Charley is going to be a bigger potential concern for me than Bonnie.. Yes that may be true.. But its like they're writing Bonnie off..

Could be very interesting..
0 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

#1471 Postby Frank P » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:40 pm

GOES sat loop show almost a slow NNW or even N motion.... Its not moving all that fast at the moment and it will not take much to turn this little system, the approaching front will start to have effect on it within the next 24 hours or less... It is eventually going to go N, then NNE then NE... I think there is little doubt about that scenario, models are in good agreement as well and have been for several runs... also follow the cloud pattern in the northern GOM.... every thing seem to be channeling into the PC/Big Bend area.... system is also elongating from NE to SW, and indication of the path to follow... bottom line - If I was a betting man, I'd bet a lot on the N to NE scenario...
0 likes   

Josephine96

#1472 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:42 pm

Well Frank.. are you a betting man? lol.. I'm not.. but I'm still thinking between Cedar Key and Tampa lol
0 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

#1473 Postby Frank P » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:48 pm

Not much, but I do go to the Casinos on the coast and eat them buffets... I just bet my wife I won't get sick... hehe

she usually wins though.....

You never REALLY know about these systems and they always want to fool ya... But I think, as it stands right now, the eye will be east of Pensacola, near the PC area... if it survives the shear that has been pounding the stew out of the little storm... recon shows its weaken someone from last report... could be a phase, a pulse.... who the heck knows.. it's already surprised a lot of the experts who said it would not even regenerate...
0 likes   

User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:

#1474 Postby The Dark Knight » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:48 pm

LOL...
0 likes   

Josephine96

#1475 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:52 pm

what's so funny lol
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#1476 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 10, 2004 1:56 pm

URNT11 KNHC 101830
97779 18304 30170 74900 57300 04022 56//1 /4588
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 12

17.0 N 74.9 W. They are getting closer.

140 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica. 385 miles NW of Charley.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Bonnie Making Turn?

#1477 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:09 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Zoom in and look at the last 3 frames. Seems the LLC has turned due North? Or am I seeing things?

~Chris
0 likes   

tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

#1478 Postby tallywx » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:11 pm

Bonnie has turned. 18z NHC models were initialized at 0 degrees at 4 kts. In other words, due north.
Last edited by tallywx on Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

Josephine96

#1479 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:12 pm

I don't believe you're seeing things.. I could be wrong.. but the Northward turn may be starting..

Hence if it is.. that means the trough will sling it NE but possibly SE of where it's forecast to go..
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#1480 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:12 pm

Now that I look at it, perhaps a little bit of just East of due north movement as well

~Chris
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests