Bonnie Advisories

[washington]

Bonnie should start to see to feel the effects of the through coming down and should start moving to the north.

[Rainband]

The NHC says wnw. I say wnw

[SCUBAdude]

I just keep it simple. I go with the NHC forecast for where and when. IMO they have been a right a whole lot more often than wrong in the last few years. I read this forum to get more insight as to why a system might or might not do a certain thing. It also give's me a heads up before any official changes might be made to a forecast. Plus I love all the cool links provided here.
But when it comes down to the pucker factor, I go with the NHC.
And yes I do agree, it seems like anyone can conjure up any sort of argument as to why a storm will hit their area, despite official forecasts.

[washington]

Good point it needs to turning soon because if it does not shift the track to the west.

[NorthGaWeather]

The turn to a NE motion should occur tommorrow then a more North motion after that before it makes landfall.

[Josephine96]

The quicker it moves to the North.. the quicker it turns NE.. and depending on it's latitude.. the further East or even SE it makes landfall..

Us here in the Peninsula still need to keep a close eye on it..

[Agua]

Wouldn't the WNW track give the front that is going to shunt it east time to get further south, and thus, potentially move Bonnie further to the east?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 101823
97779 18234 30236 89700 15200 22029 18112 /2542 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 08

They are still flying around Bonnie.23.6n-89.7w

[MWatkins]

But didnt you say "its headed into mexico as a weak TD.... woopie" ???????? in another thread? Sorry dave, not attacking you here, but i cannot validate your remarks

I find it funny how many "indepedent" casters on here had it a Hurricane twisting out to sea last week before it was even named.

So did the NHC. Their 120 hour verification stats could be 600NM or more off.

Once again proving how little is known about intensity forecasting.

You would be better off betting on football games than trying to guess intensity.

MW

[Josephine96]

Agua.. I'm not an expert.. But I will risk being bashed and state that I believe so.. Where the trough picks it up is the key..

All I hear all day is that Charley is going to be a bigger potential concern for me than Bonnie.. Yes that may be true.. But its like they're writing Bonnie off..

Could be very interesting..

[Frank P]

GOES sat loop show almost a slow NNW or even N motion.... Its not moving all that fast at the moment and it will not take much to turn this little system, the approaching front will start to have effect on it within the next 24 hours or less... It is eventually going to go N, then NNE then NE... I think there is little doubt about that scenario, models are in good agreement as well and have been for several runs... also follow the cloud pattern in the northern GOM.... every thing seem to be channeling into the PC/Big Bend area.... system is also elongating from NE to SW, and indication of the path to follow... bottom line - If I was a betting man, I'd bet a lot on the N to NE scenario...

[Josephine96]

Well Frank.. are you a betting man? lol.. I'm not.. but I'm still thinking between Cedar Key and Tampa lol

[Frank P]

Not much, but I do go to the Casinos on the coast and eat them buffets... I just bet my wife I won't get sick... hehe

she usually wins though.....

You never REALLY know about these systems and they always want to fool ya... But I think, as it stands right now, the eye will be east of Pensacola, near the PC area... if it survives the shear that has been pounding the stew out of the little storm... recon shows its weaken someone from last report... could be a phase, a pulse.... who the heck knows.. it's already surprised a lot of the experts who said it would not even regenerate...

[The Dark Knight]

LOL...

[Josephine96]

what's so funny lol

[HURAKAN]

URNT11 KNHC 101830
97779 18304 30170 74900 57300 04022 56//1 /4588
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 12

17.0 N 74.9 W. They are getting closer.

140 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica. 385 miles NW of Charley.

[chris_fit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Zoom in and look at the last 3 frames. Seems the LLC has turned due North? Or am I seeing things?

~Chris

[tallywx]

Bonnie has turned. 18z NHC models were initialized at 0 degrees at 4 kts. In other words, due north.

[Josephine96]

I don't believe you're seeing things.. I could be wrong.. but the Northward turn may be starting..

Hence if it is.. that means the trough will sling it NE but possibly SE of where it's forecast to go..

[chris_fit]

Now that I look at it, perhaps a little bit of just East of due north movement as well

~Chris