Bonnie Advisories

#1641 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:36 pm

Brent wrote:Dixie... you need to monitor Charley VERY VERY closely. The NHC track takes it directly over you on Saturday. Bonnie is looking like it's on life support.

Brent, I agree, Charley is very ominous for Florida west coast.

NorthGaWeather · #1642 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:37 pm

Thunderstorms starting to return to Bonnie. Pressure has started to fall again.

#1643 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:40 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 102224
97779 22244 30167 67708 58500 13023 57603 /4588
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 23

Plane still making passes thru the system but more east now.That was at 16.7n-67.7w

Scott_inVA · #1644 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:44 pm

MGC wrote:That darn shear just won't go away......MGC

Shear likely will diminish overnight and Wednesday...at least until the evening.

She'll begin running out of time but I would not blow off this storm.

Scott

Guest · #1645 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:45 pm

Wow thats to cool

#1646 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:45 pm

URNT12 KNHC 102217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2217Z
B. 24 DEG 42 MIN N
90 DEG 30 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1454 M
D. 25 KT
E. 322 DEG 16 NM
F. 051 DEG 32 KT
G. 323 DEG 013 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 19 C/ 1524 M
J. 24 C/ 1521 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 20
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 1842Z.

No headlines comming from this message that is important to note other than to say it is a sick system.

#1647 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 5:47 pm

Luis, she sure looks sick on radar.

HurricaneBill · #1648 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:14 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:Maybe he can't remember TC Tracy in 1974 off the coast of Australia. That storm had TS force winds extending AFAR..........yeah right!.........20 Nautical Miles!

Apparently, all 20 nautical miles passed over Darwin.

Cyclone Tracy is the smallest TC on record. However, she was a very powerful one.

I have a question. How strong was Tracy at landfall on Darwin?

I thought it was probably Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. But I read in a book that she was a Category 5 with a barometric pressure of 27.00 inches (914 mb).

Baytown Bug · #1649 Postby **Baytown Bug** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:20 pm

I agree that time is running out on Bonnie. If she doesn't have some convection fire up overnight, IMO she's toast. Very unimpressive right now.

Stormchaser16 · #1650 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:26 pm

I know DT..... but you said "a weak TD or minimal TS headed into MEXICO is no big deal..... woopie"

Im not trying to attack you, just trying to say that i cant agree that TPC jumped the gun with Bonnie

Janie34 · #1651 Postby **Janie34** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:32 pm

Well, its been said that we can expect some major fluctuations in Bonnie's strength before she makes landfall, and its probable that this is one of those fluctuations. I'm not writing her off.

Stormsfury · #1652 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 6:32 pm

MWatkins wrote:
MdWx wrote:
Stormchaser16 wrote:But didnt you say "its headed into mexico as a weak TD.... woopie" ???????? in another thread? Sorry dave, not attacking you here, but i cannot validate your remarks

I find it funny how many "indepedent" casters on here had it a Hurricane twisting out to sea last week before it was even named.

So did the NHC. Their 120 hour verification stats could be 600NM or more off.

Once again proving how little is known about intensity forecasting.

You would be better off betting on football games than trying to guess intensity.

MW

Exactly ... last night, I posted that I didn't really expect Bonnie to be real significant, but since it's such a small cyclone, that it would be susceptible to any miniscule changes either way ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=35935

hurricanedude · #1653 Postby **hurricanedude** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:39 pm

OK....yes...Charley is the bigger and badder of the 2 storms....but if you read the 5pm discussion on bonnie, it mentioned that sinse she is so small she is capaple of doing exactly what charlie has done...EXPLODE..just because she hasnt yet dont mean she want/cant....all I can say is treat this thing as if it were going to become a cane because it very well could. and to be truthfull...if it were not for charley....everyone would be all over bonnie...just food for thought

ColdFront77 · #1654 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:40 pm

Great point, Mike. It wasn't too many hours ago the forecast for Bonnie was calling for a minimal hurricane.

Rainband · #1655 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:40 pm

Bonnie looks bad Mike, I am not saying she is done for but she isn't as important as the system threatening the caribbean right now :eek:

hurricanedude · #1656 Postby **hurricanedude** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:42 pm

Im talking about the possibilities...in 24 hours...bonnie could be the big news.......you never know...thats my whole point

Rainband · #1657 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:42 pm

I agree, many little storms turned out to be BIG news!!! :eek:

Guest · #1658 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:45 pm

sorry this isnt so... the weakening trend has been going on for 24 hrs and without any convection to speak off.... to say you never know is really reaching

hurricanedude wrote:Im talking about the possibilities...in 24 hours...bonnie could be the big news.......you never know...thats my whole point

hurricanedude · #1659 Postby **hurricanedude** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:47 pm

and to say Im reaching is unprofessional...just my thought.....dont need you to criticize me...ok..thank you

tallywx · #1660 Postby **tallywx** » Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:48 pm

No convection...ah, except the convection firing right over the center. Don't count anything out. Just because Charley may be the bigger story of the hour doesn't mean that it will remain the only story.

Bonnie Advisories

The message from Bonnie is nothing impressive

BONNIE

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