Frances Advisories
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- cycloneye
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SSD T numbers for Frances=2.5 at 11.8n-41.1w
25/2345 UTC 11.8N 41.1W T2.5/2.5 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean
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I've said all along that I thought the NE Islands would see this one. Just don't see the ridge backing down that aggresively as the models have been progging.
You could see a Cat.2 very near PR. and then the SE CONUS will have to keep a close eye on this one.
You could see a Cat.2 very near PR. and then the SE CONUS will have to keep a close eye on this one.
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- crazycajuncane
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We may be in trouble or close to it by Monday morning
I agree with Wx57 and Cicloneye. The later the model the further left. Not good. And the trend this season has been for storms to track low, fast and west. And climatologically this is one of the worst weeks for the Northeast Caribbean in terms of severe hurricanes, the last week of August/first of September. If Frances is moving faster than the models have it and the trof is moving south at a slower pace, the nw turn will occur later than expected. Slow enough to at least give us a good scare.
Trof get here and get here fast!
Trof get here and get here fast!
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00Z models. More and more west
Check out the 00Z models. The BAM models, LBAR and now even the A98 take Frances into the Islands. Watch out
<RICKY>
http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm
Click on TD 6
<RICKY>
http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm
Click on TD 6
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- cycloneye
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00:00 UTC Tropical Model Suite=Tracks of them to islands
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 0000 040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 41.1W 12.7N 43.6W 13.9N 45.6W 15.0N 47.6W
BAMM 11.7N 41.1W 12.7N 43.3W 13.8N 45.2W 14.8N 47.0W
A98E 11.7N 41.1W 12.2N 43.9W 12.8N 46.6W 13.5N 49.2W
LBAR 11.7N 41.1W 12.6N 43.8W 13.8N 46.4W 14.9N 48.7W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 0000 040829 0000 040830 0000 040831 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 49.3W 16.9N 52.3W 16.9N 55.6W 16.9N 59.7W
BAMM 15.7N 48.6W 16.4N 51.4W 16.4N 54.4W 16.6N 58.3W
A98E 14.1N 51.5W 14.8N 55.9W 14.8N 60.3W 13.8N 65.0W
LBAR 15.7N 50.7W 16.5N 53.6W 16.3N 56.9W 16.2N 60.8W
SHIP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS
DSHP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 41.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 38.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 35.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM
Now let's see how the global models later tonight at the 00z run respond..
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 0000 040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 41.1W 12.7N 43.6W 13.9N 45.6W 15.0N 47.6W
BAMM 11.7N 41.1W 12.7N 43.3W 13.8N 45.2W 14.8N 47.0W
A98E 11.7N 41.1W 12.2N 43.9W 12.8N 46.6W 13.5N 49.2W
LBAR 11.7N 41.1W 12.6N 43.8W 13.8N 46.4W 14.9N 48.7W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 0000 040829 0000 040830 0000 040831 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 49.3W 16.9N 52.3W 16.9N 55.6W 16.9N 59.7W
BAMM 15.7N 48.6W 16.4N 51.4W 16.4N 54.4W 16.6N 58.3W
A98E 14.1N 51.5W 14.8N 55.9W 14.8N 60.3W 13.8N 65.0W
LBAR 15.7N 50.7W 16.5N 53.6W 16.3N 56.9W 16.2N 60.8W
SHIP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS
DSHP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 41.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 38.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 35.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM
Now let's see how the global models later tonight at the 00z run respond..
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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At least here in Puerto Rico I may say no concern as of yet but the TV mets say to watch the storms track in case it deviates from the projected one by NHC.
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- cycloneye
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In terms of the islands more concern of a direct hit or a brush just north but for the US it is too early to especulate what track it will take and more where it may make landfall.
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Obxhurricane the Gfdl is putting it at 39.8 west? It is already at 41.1 west as of one hour ago.
Based on SSD
Here is my thinking
6 hours...10:45pm pst/1:45am est... 12.2/42.3
12 hours...4:45am pst/7:45am est... 12.7/43.3
18 hours...10:45am pst/1:45pm est.. 13.35/44.2
24 hours...4:45pm pst/7:45pm est.. 13.40/45.0
That is my thinking at this time.
Based on SSD
Here is my thinking
6 hours...10:45pm pst/1:45am est... 12.2/42.3
12 hours...4:45am pst/7:45am est... 12.7/43.3
18 hours...10:45am pst/1:45pm est.. 13.35/44.2
24 hours...4:45pm pst/7:45pm est.. 13.40/45.0
That is my thinking at this time.
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- cycloneye
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Well the global models haved been so far away from the actual track so they haved not handled it well.About the tropical model suite the BAMD is the best of that suite and has done a good job with this system.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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