Frances Advisories

#221 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 7:20 pm

25/2345 UTC 11.8N 41.1W T2.5/2.5 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

Guest · #222 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 7:24 pm

that GFS run has Frances recurving off the East coast and not landfalling.

#223 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 7:25 pm

I've said all along that I thought the NE Islands would see this one. Just don't see the ridge backing down that aggresively as the models have been progging.

You could see a Cat.2 very near PR. and then the SE CONUS will have to keep a close eye on this one.

#224 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 7:53 pm

I think it's going to go whereever it wants to. Anyone wanna make a bet on that?

PuertoRicoLibre · #225 Postby **PuertoRicoLibre** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 7:54 pm

I agree with Wx57 and Cicloneye. The later the model the further left. Not good. And the trend this season has been for storms to track low, fast and west. And climatologically this is one of the worst weeks for the Northeast Caribbean in terms of severe hurricanes, the last week of August/first of September. If Frances is moving faster than the models have it and the trof is moving south at a slower pace, the nw turn will occur later than expected. Slow enough to at least give us a good scare.

Trof get here and get here fast!

Guest · #226 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 7:58 pm

that is the truth, the storm decides where it goes, not us.

#227 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:01 pm

Check out the 00Z models. The BAM models, LBAR and now even the A98 take Frances into the Islands. Watch out

<RICKY>

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

Click on TD 6

Aquawind · #228 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:02 pm

So what is the latest they saying on the Islands? Fishy odors in the air or are they getting concerned?

#229 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:02 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 0000 040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 41.1W 12.7N 43.6W 13.9N 45.6W 15.0N 47.6W
BAMM 11.7N 41.1W 12.7N 43.3W 13.8N 45.2W 14.8N 47.0W
A98E 11.7N 41.1W 12.2N 43.9W 12.8N 46.6W 13.5N 49.2W
LBAR 11.7N 41.1W 12.6N 43.8W 13.8N 46.4W 14.9N 48.7W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 0000 040829 0000 040830 0000 040831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.9N 49.3W 16.9N 52.3W 16.9N 55.6W 16.9N 59.7W
BAMM 15.7N 48.6W 16.4N 51.4W 16.4N 54.4W 16.6N 58.3W
A98E 14.1N 51.5W 14.8N 55.9W 14.8N 60.3W 13.8N 65.0W
LBAR 15.7N 50.7W 16.5N 53.6W 16.3N 56.9W 16.2N 60.8W
SHIP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS
DSHP 63KTS 75KTS 79KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 41.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 38.3W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 35.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 40NM

Now let's see how the global models later tonight at the 00z run respond..

#230 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:03 pm

I guess you and I posted the 00Z models at the same time. What do you think this means for the islands and the US, Cycloneye?

<RICKY>

#231 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:04 pm

At least here in Puerto Rico I may say no concern as of yet but the TV mets say to watch the storms track in case it deviates from the projected one by NHC.

caribepr · #232 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:05 pm

We in the islands are always concerned with cape verde stomrs until they fish or fizzle

#233 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:05 pm

In terms of the islands more concern of a direct hit or a brush just north but for the US it is too early to especulate what track it will take and more where it may make landfall.

Matthew5 · #234 Postby **Matthew5** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:07 pm

Obxhurricane the Gfdl is putting it at 39.8 west? It is already at 41.1 west as of one hour ago.

Based on SSD
Here is my thinking
6 hours...10:45pm pst/1:45am est... 12.2/42.3
12 hours...4:45am pst/7:45am est... 12.7/43.3
18 hours...10:45am pst/1:45pm est.. 13.35/44.2
24 hours...4:45pm pst/7:45pm est.. 13.40/45.0

That is my thinking at this time.

Guest · #235 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:07 pm

The Ships model weakens it after 96 hours...

#236 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:07 pm

Which of the models do you find more trustworthy in terms of having the best handle on Frances so far?

<RICKY>

Renata · #237 Postby **Renata** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:08 pm

In Barbados, TV weather news tonight says it will bypass the islands and be no threat to land.

They usually use a crystal ball.

LOL

Website · #238 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:12 pm

nikolai wrote:The Ships model weakens it after 96 hours...

WOW, 1 whole knot. :lol:

#239 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:13 pm

Well the global models haved been so far away from the actual track so they haved not handled it well.About the tropical model suite the BAMD is the best of that suite and has done a good job with this system.

Aquawind · #240 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 25, 2004 8:14 pm

Renata wrote:In Barbados, TV weather news tonight says it will bypass the islands and be no threat to land.

They usually use a crystal ball.

LOL

TV is not to be trusted imho..

Frances Advisories

SSD T numbers for Frances=2.5 at 11.8n-41.1w

We may be in trouble or close to it by Monday morning

00Z models. More and more west

00:00 UTC Tropical Model Suite=Tracks of them to islands

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