Frances Advisories

[Guest]

Has a storm ever stayed below the 25n mark all the way to Mexico or S. Tex from the last model position?

Wishcaster

[Valkhorn]

Looks like a couple of models are out to lunch. Either way I think the NHC forecast is spot on, and a more W or due W turn is in the offing towards the end of the track.

What are your thoughts?

[Valkhorn]

As a side note, in the first map, the extrapolated path may actually average to be correct if it does go WNW or slightly NW and back W.

It's not every day that an extrapolated path ends up to be fairly close.

[dixiebreeze]

26/1615 UTC 13.3N 45.2W T4.0/4.0 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

[Brent]

If that XTRAP is right it'll be threatening the Bahamas and Florida in 5 days.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm sure plenty have....Also we are so far out from Frances even being any kind of threat weather it be Brownsville or Maine...

[dhweather]

thanks for the graphics

[dhweather]

I'm sure plenty have....Also we are so far out from Frances even being any kind of threat weather it be Brownsville or Maine...

Frances, bring your @$@#$ to me!

[x-y-no]

Can't say I care for where the extrapolated path points.

Looks like a couple of models are out to lunch. Either way I think the NHC forecast is spot on, and a more W or due W turn is in the offing towards the end of the track.

Yeah, what's with that A98E path? LOL.

The GFS and the BAM tracks seem to be clustered in a fairly convincing direction.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

She really is intensifying rapidly.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy I hope they are aware that a major cane is east of that island in 2 days although it looks like it will bypass but you never know.

[Windsong]

Hi Dixie,

Channel 9's Tom Terry just showed a graphic depicting Frances going more westward after Tuesday. He said he doesn't like that...(nor will most Floridians) The graph did show the system north of the islands, however. The voice inflection he used when explaining her projected strength spoke volumes...

Check your supplies and replace what was depleted by Charley everyone. Frances or not, it's always a good idea.

[WeatherEmperor]

I would be more concerned if I lived in North Carolina and north.

<RICKY>

[dixiebreeze]

Hi Dixie,

Channel 9's Tom Terry just showed a graphic depicting Frances going more westward after Tuesday. He said he doesn't like that...(nor will most Floridians) The graph did show the system north of the islands, however. The voice inflection he used when explaining her projected strength spoke volumes...

Check your supplies and replace what was depleted by Charley everyone. Frances or not, it's always a good idea.

Excellent advice, Windsong and thanks for the local Met info.
BTW, Wind Song used to be my favorite perfume.

[cinlfla]

Channel 9's Tom Terry just showed a graphic depicting Frances going more westward after Tuesday. He said he doesn't like that...(nor will most Floridians) The graph did show the system north of the islands, however. The voice inflection he used when explaining her projected strength spoke volumes...

We live close to the Space center, I just watched the same thing on Channel 9. I really thought for sure this system would travel to the Gulf and still possibly could but from the looks of things it will be somewhere on the East coast that has to deal with Frances.
Cindy[/quote]

[chadtm80]

for Florida --- or entire SE Coast for that matter:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Im going to train you to use our resources before this season is over.. lol http://www.storm2k.org/projected.html

[Josephine96]

I didn't see Tom's report.. But he always speaks volumes when a storm may be headed this way

[Mattie]

I did read somewhere today that as long as it is traveling slow (<35k) that it is unlikely that it will be directed to the East Coast, or if so, will weaken significantly because of the weather conditions it encounters off the east coast. (Just a novice being a parrot). . .

Wonder what history can substantiate that statement if any.

[Josephine96]

If the extrapolated path holds up.. There could be more trouble for us Floridians here

[Josephine96]

If it keeps it's current track.. Frances will be the top story here in Florida probably by Saturday