Frances Advisories

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#521 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:14 pm

Has a storm ever stayed below the 25n mark all the way to Mexico or S. Tex from the last model position?

Wishcaster
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Latest Model Runs for Frances

#522 Postby Valkhorn » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:16 pm

Image

Image

Looks like a couple of models are out to lunch. Either way I think the NHC forecast is spot on, and a more W or due W turn is in the offing towards the end of the track.

What are your thoughts?
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#523 Postby Valkhorn » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:17 pm

As a side note, in the first map, the extrapolated path may actually average to be correct if it does go WNW or slightly NW and back W.

It's not every day that an extrapolated path ends up to be fairly close.
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Hurricane Frances T# 4.0/4.0...

#524 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:21 pm

26/1615 UTC 13.3N 45.2W T4.0/4.0 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean
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#525 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:22 pm

If that XTRAP is right it'll be threatening the Bahamas and Florida in 5 days.
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#526 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:23 pm

I'm sure plenty have....Also we are so far out from Frances even being any kind of threat weather it be Brownsville or Maine...
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#527 Postby dhweather » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:23 pm

thanks for the graphics
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#528 Postby dhweather » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:25 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:I'm sure plenty have....Also we are so far out from Frances even being any kind of threat weather it be Brownsville or Maine...


Frances, bring your @$@#$ to me!
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#529 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:26 pm

Can't say I care for where the extrapolated path points. :eek:

Looks like a couple of models are out to lunch. Either way I think the NHC forecast is spot on, and a more W or due W turn is in the offing towards the end of the track.


Yeah, what's with that A98E path? LOL.

The GFS and the BAM tracks seem to be clustered in a fairly convincing direction.
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983 MB & 70 kts for Hurricane Frances....

#530 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:26 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

She really is intensifying rapidly.
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#531 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:29 pm

Oh boy I hope they are aware that a major cane is east of that island in 2 days although it looks like it will bypass but you never know.
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#532 Postby Windsong » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:29 pm

Hi Dixie,

Channel 9's Tom Terry just showed a graphic depicting Frances going more westward after Tuesday. He said he doesn't like that...(nor will most Floridians) The graph did show the system north of the islands, however. The voice inflection he used when explaining her projected strength spoke volumes...

Check your supplies and replace what was depleted by Charley everyone. Frances or not, it's always a good idea.
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#533 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:34 pm

I would be more concerned if I lived in North Carolina and north.

<RICKY>
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#534 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:35 pm

Windsong wrote:Hi Dixie,

Channel 9's Tom Terry just showed a graphic depicting Frances going more westward after Tuesday. He said he doesn't like that...(nor will most Floridians) The graph did show the system north of the islands, however. The voice inflection he used when explaining her projected strength spoke volumes...

Check your supplies and replace what was depleted by Charley everyone. Frances or not, it's always a good idea.


Excellent advice, Windsong and thanks for the local Met info.
BTW, Wind Song used to be my favorite perfume.
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#535 Postby cinlfla » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:37 pm

Channel 9's Tom Terry just showed a graphic depicting Frances going more westward after Tuesday. He said he doesn't like that...(nor will most Floridians) The graph did show the system north of the islands, however. The voice inflection he used when explaining her projected strength spoke volumes...




We live close to the Space center, I just watched the same thing on Channel 9. I really thought for sure this system would travel to the Gulf and still possibly could but from the looks of things it will be somewhere on the East coast that has to deal with Frances.
Cindy[/quote]
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chadtm80

Re: 5 day forecast track not looking good....

#536 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:38 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:for Florida --- or entire SE Coast for that matter:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html


Im going to train you to use our resources before this season is over.. lol http://www.storm2k.org/projected.html
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Josephine96

#537 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:40 pm

I didn't see Tom's report.. But he always speaks volumes when a storm may be headed this way
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#538 Postby Mattie » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:41 pm

I did read somewhere today that as long as it is traveling slow (<35k) that it is unlikely that it will be directed to the East Coast, or if so, will weaken significantly because of the weather conditions it encounters off the east coast. (Just a novice being a parrot). . .

Wonder what history can substantiate that statement if any.
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Josephine96

#539 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:42 pm

If the extrapolated path holds up.. There could be more trouble for us Floridians here
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Josephine96

#540 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 4:43 pm

If it keeps it's current track.. Frances will be the top story here in Florida probably by Saturday :eek:
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