Frances Advisories

[Brent]

any specific track is rare. look at charley, it took a donna like track, and the last time that happened was 1960. isabel last year took a track that hadnt happened since 1933

Sorry Charley did not take a Donna type track.

The only similarities between Donna and Charley are the hit on SW Florida. If anything, Frances could do more of a Donna-type track(passing north of the islands and then turning back W to WNW).

[canegrl04]

Frances is starting to look very scary .I hope Florida isn't on the receiving end of her wrath. Charley was enough for one season

[Guest]

i don't want to think about this storm hitting anywhere .but if it must not Fla that state has had enough to last a life time.

[PurdueWx80]

Here comes the eye (sung to the tune of Here comes the bride): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[MWatkins]

Actually, I think it's fairly unlikely that millions will lose their homes if it strikes south Florida Even less likely the hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Building codes have been revised since Andrew in 1992, so it's unlikely we'll see as many "regular" homes destroyed. Yes, mobile homes will disappear, but those homes are not extremely high valued anyway. Of course, we can't forget losses that are not houses. However, I still think that's a little exaggerated.

I think there was a place that estimated how much a Cat. 5 hurricane will cost to south Florida and I believe they said something like $50-75 billion. Definitely catastrophic, but not to the point that you're expressing.

A greater disaster, I think, would be that same scenario you're describing for New Orleans...

Of course...this system could be the big one for any community that has to deal with it. But there is zero way to know for sure if any specific place will be threatened. It is just too far away...so I will avoid the main question but repond to the point listed above.

New building codes for SFL have been in place since 92...but goodness forbid if this system were to come in over some older...poorer constructed communities like Hialeah...where little retrofitting has occured.

MW

[rainstorm]

so has nc and va

[MWatkins]

Here comes the eye (sung to the tune of Here comes the bride): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

Man...looks just like a coiled snake or dragon in that image.

MW

[lilbump3000]

It all depends on the strength of the high pressure. If this become a strong high, then expect this system to make it across flordia and into the gulf of mexico. Now what can make this system go up the east coast is if this is not a strong enough high or there is some type of trough that comes down and weakens the ridge that will cause the system to turn. Thats what i see the system doing out of them 2 scenarios.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Here comes the eye (sung to the tune of Here comes the bride): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[Hyperstorm]

Actually, I think it's fairly unlikely that millions will lose their homes if it strikes south Florida Even less likely the hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Building codes have been revised since Andrew in 1992, so it's unlikely we'll see as many "regular" homes destroyed. Yes, mobile homes will disappear, but those homes are not extremely high valued anyway. Of course, we can't forget losses that are not houses. However, I still think that's a little exaggerated.

I think there was a place that estimated how much a Cat. 5 hurricane will cost to south Florida and I believe they said something like $50-75 billion. Definitely catastrophic, but not to the point that you're expressing.

A greater disaster, I think, would be that same scenario you're describing for New Orleans...

Of course...this system could be the big one for any community that has to deal with it. But there is zero way to know for sure if any specific place will be threatened. It is just too far away...so I will avoid the main question but repond to the point listed above.

New building codes for SFL have been in place since 92...but goodness forbid if this system were to come in over some older...poorer constructed communities like Hialeah...where little retrofitting has occured.

MW

Sure, there are many areas that have older structures/building codes, but IMO, it's unlikely the total will be "hundreds" of billions of dollars in damage...at least not in the near future for South Florida. Sometime in the future, yes...it will be more probable to see it as cost of living rises.

Of course, I'm no God to know what will or will not happen.

Stating the probabilities...

[Guest]

think of how big the population boom has been along along the sotheast coast. from the keys to norfolk, it all grown exponentially since fran, andrew and alot since even floyd. Imagine a hit like andrew except a hurricane that is alot wider, and a more dense population. And more people affected. This hurricane is bad news, especially if it hits a major metro area, assuming it hits the U.S.

[cape_escape]

So imagine if you will....<dramatic pause> ....some idiotic terrorist striking NYC and the convention....AND....a major storm hitting the EC of the US

That would be the absolute worst possible thing for our beloved country.

(and no...I'm not borrowing trouble here - it was just a thought that popped in my mind).

Wow! I would never have thought of a scenerio like that! YIKES!

[cape_escape]

Hope for the best for St. Maarten, that's for sure.

Ditto!!!!

[Hyperstorm]

think of how big the population boom has been along along the sotheast coast. from the keys to norfolk, it all grown exponentially since fran, andrew and alot since even floyd. Imagine a hit like andrew except a hurricane that is alot wider, and a more dense population. And more people affected. This hurricane is bad news, especially if it hits a major metro area, assuming it hits the U.S.

I understand your point. It could happen...someday as cost of living rises, but the probabilities of that happening now are practically too low to list...

Enough said...This will be my last post on this topic.

[Stormsfury]

The key, maybe is what is going on now off the South Carolina coast, and what happens IF this leaves something behind to create enough of a weakness for Frances to follow through ... much like Isabel did last year finding the weakness left behind in the wake of the remnants of Henri ...

Otherwise, this pattern shape up spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for someone on the EC.

Already a "corridor" that the first 3 TC's of the season have traversed should have the Southeast Coast keeping a very weary eye on Frances ...

[Derek Ortt]

Just have been looking at some recent GARP sat images from a relatively soomed in vantage point and there are two developments.

1. The eye has formed
2. The system is moving closer to 280 than 290

[Anonymous]

I think it is pretty safe to say that areas south of Palm Beach and North of Savannah should really watch this storm---it will either hit south florida and weaken before affecting people in central, N fla, and points north or Miss Fla and Ga all together, and hit the Carolinas---or go to sea harmlessly

[Brent]

Okay....so WHEN might Frances pay a call on the EC (if, in fact she decided to do so)? Are we talking about mid to late next week? I'm in NYC today - where it seems that everyone is getting ready for the RNC (security is EVERYWHERE).

So imagine if you will....<dramatic pause> ....some idiotic terrorist striking NYC and the convention....AND....a major storm hitting the EC of the US

That would be the absolute worst possible thing for our beloved country.

(and no...I'm not borrowing trouble here - it was just a thought that popped in my mind).

It would also probably cause me to have a breakdown since I will follow both events closely.

[Matthew5]

Interesting! How strong do you think it is Derek?

[MWatkins]

The key, maybe is what is going on now off the South Carolina coast, and what happens IF this leaves something behind to create enough of a weakness for Frances to follow through ... much like Isabel did last year finding the weakness left behind in the wake of the remnants of Henri ...

Otherwise, this pattern shape up spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for someone on the EC.

Already a "corridor" that the first 3 TC's of the season have traversed should have the Southeast Coast keeping a very weary eye on Frances ...

Good point storms...the GFS wanted to leave something hanging around last night but this current solution does not appear to affect the nose of the ridge much. Not sure for whom yet...but I do not like the way this deck is stacked.

MW