Frances Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#601 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:20 pm

MIA_canetrakker wrote:
rainstorm wrote:any specific track is rare. look at charley, it took a donna like track, and the last time that happened was 1960. isabel last year took a track that hadnt happened since 1933

Sorry Charley did not take a Donna type track.


The only similarities between Donna and Charley are the hit on SW Florida. If anything, Frances could do more of a Donna-type track(passing north of the islands and then turning back W to WNW).
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#602 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:20 pm

Frances is starting to look very scary .I hope Florida isn't on the receiving end of her wrath. Charley was enough for one season
0 likes   

Guest

#603 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:21 pm

i don't want to think about this storm hitting anywhere .but if it must not Fla that state has had enough to last a life time.
0 likes   

PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:

#604 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:21 pm

Here comes the eye (sung to the tune of Here comes the bride): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg
0 likes   

MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:

#605 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:22 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:Actually, I think it's fairly unlikely that millions will lose their homes if it strikes south Florida Even less likely the hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Building codes have been revised since Andrew in 1992, so it's unlikely we'll see as many "regular" homes destroyed. Yes, mobile homes will disappear, but those homes are not extremely high valued anyway. Of course, we can't forget losses that are not houses. However, I still think that's a little exaggerated.

I think there was a place that estimated how much a Cat. 5 hurricane will cost to south Florida and I believe they said something like $50-75 billion. Definitely catastrophic, but not to the point that you're expressing.

A greater disaster, I think, would be that same scenario you're describing for New Orleans...


Of course...this system could be the big one for any community that has to deal with it. But there is zero way to know for sure if any specific place will be threatened. It is just too far away...so I will avoid the main question but repond to the point listed above.

New building codes for SFL have been in place since 92...but goodness forbid if this system were to come in over some older...poorer constructed communities like Hialeah...where little retrofitting has occured.

MW
0 likes   

rainstorm

#606 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:23 pm

so has nc and va
0 likes   

MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:

#607 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:28 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Here comes the eye (sung to the tune of Here comes the bride): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg


Man...looks just like a coiled snake or dragon in that image.

MW
0 likes   

User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:

#608 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:28 pm

It all depends on the strength of the high pressure. If this become a strong high, then expect this system to make it across flordia and into the gulf of mexico. Now what can make this system go up the east coast is if this is not a strong enough high or there is some type of trough that comes down and weakens the ridge that will cause the system to turn. Thats what i see the system doing out of them 2 scenarios.
0 likes   

User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

#609 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:29 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Here comes the eye (sung to the tune of Here comes the bride): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg


Image

:eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#610 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:31 pm

MWatkins wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:Actually, I think it's fairly unlikely that millions will lose their homes if it strikes south Florida Even less likely the hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Building codes have been revised since Andrew in 1992, so it's unlikely we'll see as many "regular" homes destroyed. Yes, mobile homes will disappear, but those homes are not extremely high valued anyway. Of course, we can't forget losses that are not houses. However, I still think that's a little exaggerated.

I think there was a place that estimated how much a Cat. 5 hurricane will cost to south Florida and I believe they said something like $50-75 billion. Definitely catastrophic, but not to the point that you're expressing.

A greater disaster, I think, would be that same scenario you're describing for New Orleans...


Of course...this system could be the big one for any community that has to deal with it. But there is zero way to know for sure if any specific place will be threatened. It is just too far away...so I will avoid the main question but repond to the point listed above.

New building codes for SFL have been in place since 92...but goodness forbid if this system were to come in over some older...poorer constructed communities like Hialeah...where little retrofitting has occured.

MW


Sure, there are many areas that have older structures/building codes, but IMO, it's unlikely the total will be "hundreds" of billions of dollars in damage...at least not in the near future for South Florida. Sometime in the future, yes...it will be more probable to see it as cost of living rises.

Of course, I'm no God to know what will or will not happen.

Stating the probabilities...
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Guest

#611 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:31 pm

think of how big the population boom has been along along the sotheast coast. from the keys to norfolk, it all grown exponentially since fran, andrew and alot since even floyd. Imagine a hit like andrew except a hurricane that is alot wider, and a more dense population. And more people affected. This hurricane is bad news, especially if it hits a major metro area, assuming it hits the U.S.
0 likes   

User avatar
cape_escape
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 745
Age: 56
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:39 am
Location: Cape Coral Florida
Contact:

#612 Postby cape_escape » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:35 pm

LCfromFL wrote:
So imagine if you will....<dramatic pause> ....some idiotic terrorist striking NYC and the convention....AND....a major storm hitting the EC of the US

That would be the absolute worst possible thing for our beloved country.

(and no...I'm not borrowing trouble here - it was just a thought that popped in my mind).


Wow! I would never have thought of a scenerio like that! YIKES! :(
0 likes   

User avatar
cape_escape
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 745
Age: 56
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:39 am
Location: Cape Coral Florida
Contact:

#613 Postby cape_escape » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:37 pm

WXBUFFJIM wrote:Hope for the best for St. Maarten, that's for sure.


Ditto!!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#614 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:38 pm

nikolai wrote:think of how big the population boom has been along along the sotheast coast. from the keys to norfolk, it all grown exponentially since fran, andrew and alot since even floyd. Imagine a hit like andrew except a hurricane that is alot wider, and a more dense population. And more people affected. This hurricane is bad news, especially if it hits a major metro area, assuming it hits the U.S.


I understand your point. It could happen...someday as cost of living rises, but the probabilities of that happening now are practically too low to list...

Enough said...This will be my last post on this topic.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#615 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:38 pm

The key, maybe is what is going on now off the South Carolina coast, and what happens IF this leaves something behind to create enough of a weakness for Frances to follow through ... much like Isabel did last year finding the weakness left behind in the wake of the remnants of Henri ...

Otherwise, this pattern shape up spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for someone on the EC.

Already a "corridor" that the first 3 TC's of the season have traversed should have the Southeast Coast keeping a very weary eye on Frances ...

Image
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

the eye has formed

#616 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:41 pm

Just have been looking at some recent GARP sat images from a relatively soomed in vantage point and there are two developments.

1. The eye has formed
2. The system is moving closer to 280 than 290
0 likes   

Anonymous

#617 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:42 pm

I think it is pretty safe to say that areas south of Palm Beach and North of Savannah should really watch this storm---it will either hit south florida and weaken before affecting people in central, N fla, and points north or Miss Fla and Ga all together, and hit the Carolinas---or go to sea harmlessly
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#618 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:42 pm

LCfromFL wrote:Okay....so WHEN might Frances pay a call on the EC (if, in fact she decided to do so)? Are we talking about mid to late next week? I'm in NYC today - where it seems that everyone is getting ready for the RNC (security is EVERYWHERE).

So imagine if you will....<dramatic pause> ....some idiotic terrorist striking NYC and the convention....AND....a major storm hitting the EC of the US

That would be the absolute worst possible thing for our beloved country.

(and no...I'm not borrowing trouble here - it was just a thought that popped in my mind).


It would also probably cause me to have a breakdown since I will follow both events closely.
0 likes   
#neversummer

Matthew5

#619 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:42 pm

Interesting! How strong do you think it is Derek?
0 likes   

MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:

#620 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 26, 2004 6:42 pm

Stormsfury wrote:The key, maybe is what is going on now off the South Carolina coast, and what happens IF this leaves something behind to create enough of a weakness for Frances to follow through ... much like Isabel did last year finding the weakness left behind in the wake of the remnants of Henri ...

Otherwise, this pattern shape up spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for someone on the EC.

Already a "corridor" that the first 3 TC's of the season have traversed should have the Southeast Coast keeping a very weary eye on Frances ...

Image


Good point storms...the GFS wanted to leave something hanging around last night but this current solution does not appear to affect the nose of the ridge much. Not sure for whom yet...but I do not like the way this deck is stacked.

MW
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests