A NON-FLORIDA EVENT?

[Guest]

HERE'S THE DEAL...

From AlexiBlue:
"How about for once we have a reasonable discussion of the possibilities of a more Northern track of the Hurricane without name-calling, bashing, flaming or other issues?

It seems that it is impossible for anyone to discuss the theory of the storm taking a more northern track without it causing a flame war. Even if it is NOT a post from the-one-who-shall-not-be-named.

How about reasonable, thoughtful, explained responses to the whys and why nots of such a track shift?

Because I LIVE up here folks, and I would really like to see at least one reasonable discussion of the outside possibility!

I know everyone is in Florida panic mode, and YES, that is the most, most, most likely landfall - and where I personally believe it will go. But I don't think it is too much to ask for ONE thread with reasonable discussion of a more Northern track for us folks who aren't in Florida and have enough sense to at least keep our guard up and have perfectly reasonable worries about the unpredictable nature of hurricanes."

ORIGINAL POST:

CONCERNS ABOUT A NON-HIT TO FLORIDA GROWING....

I maybe wrong this morning by saying this, but I'm very concerned that Frances glances Florida and heads towards South Carolina. Here's why...

1. The storm has slowed down and is about even with the southern tip of Florida, so nay dramatic turn to the west will not happen until later in the game if it does at all.

2. Radar now shows the eye of the storm passing over the north shore of Eleuthera Island on a more north-northwest course.

3. The trough over Arkansas is lifting northeast and is actually blocking any westward advance of the storm. Check the cloud and moisture movement on the Water Vapor imagery.

4. Once the Arkansas trough lifts northeast, the ridge will re-build across the East in the advance of the western trough. The ridge axis in 48 hours will be from the eastern Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle. The storm will sense the axis and try to head towards the center point which will bring the storm towards South Carolina.

Look folks, this has been a concern all along. I know I have been bullish on a Florida hit, but as I have watched things evolve this morning, I'm growing more concerned that we have another Floyd type track. That's not to say that folks in Florida should head back home. They should continue prepare and follow local FEMA and EMA's directions.

The 12z model runs are about to come in

[seahawkjd]

Well if its going NW now its pretty much paralleling the coast of Florida. So I guess it depends on whether or not the approaching trough strenghens the ridge and pushes it west or weakens it and allows it to slip more north.

[wlfpack81]

I've been saying I could see at the most a s-ern hit on SC but that's as far north as I think it could get. I don't think this thing is going into NC as some say. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Guest]

Well if its going NW now its pretty much paralleling the coast of Florida. So I guess it depends on whether or not the approaching trough strenghens the ridge and pushes it west or weakens it and allows it to slip more north.

A ridge will "deflect" a system, right? If pressures are falling would that support the notion that the trough is weakening the ridge?

[krisj]

I'll be curious to see the new models and the update.

[seahawkjd]

Someone said something about there being an old front sitting off the coast still and that was causing the pressure drop. Is this still around and what effect would it have? We have questions, now we need the professionals like air force met or Mike if they're around to give some feedback.

[quickychick]

Ok, I'll shoot:

4. Once the Arkansas trough lifts northeast, the ridge will re-build across the East in the advance of the western trough.

What will determine how quickly the trough lifts?

[x-y-no]

Here's the part of this argument I don't understand:

The storm will sense the axis and try to head towards the center point which will bring the storm towards South Carolina.

Why would a storm wich is moving along the southern perimiter of a ridge suddenly decide to head for the center of that ridge just because the ridge gets stronger? Semms to me the opposite would happen, and it would steer more westerly just as all the models are saying.

[Guest]

Ok, I'll shoot:

4. Once the Arkansas trough lifts northeast, the ridge will re-build across the East in the advance of the western trough.

What will determine how quickly the trough lifts?

Good question! Also, what would determine whether or not the incoming trough weakens or strengthens the ridge?

[AlexiBlue]

Now I am a happy girl. Reasonable, intelligent discussion! Thank you CLTRDU!

Oh, and Hurricane Watch just extended North to the Georgia border. So this is now a very timely discussion...

[Guest]

Where are you Alexi?

I think Wlfpack81 is a met...

[AlexiBlue]

I am in Charleston, and I am NOT currently expecting Frances to come anywhere near here - not a "CarolinaCaster" so to speak, LOL. But part of why I enjoy this board so much is that people are willing to discuss and consider ALL the possibilities in a reasonable and intelligent manner.

And as long as everyone remembers to ALWAYS listen to the officials and ALWAYS keep on guard if they are in the cone of danger - I don't see why not we can't discuss outside possibilities such as this.

[Guest]

I'm not surprised about the GA border, it's so close to the edge of the system...

[seahawkjd]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=41152

[Guest]

Seahawkjd,

Thanks for the post. I think things are going pretty smoothly in here.

Peace,

[AlexiBlue]

Are the 12z model runs in and if so, can someone post a link? Um, a graphical representation if possible because I have trouble reading the other ones (still a newbie!).

[cswitwer]

Wow, thanks to everybody who is participating in this discussion. I'm in Charleston, too, and have been wanting this info and dialogue. Thanks a lot!

I'm concerned that in the VERY OUTSIDE far away low low chance that the SC coast ends up in danger and is evacuated, we may not have many places to go because so many Floridians had to come up this way. Knowing possibilities and thoughts on where Frances is heading helps me feel like I am informed, and prepared-- just in case.

And on that note, welcome to Charleston all you Floridians! I'm glad to see so many Florida license plates on Highway 17 this morning, as well as the Home Depot flatbeds with all the plywood on them. Glad everybody heeded the warnings in FL and got away from this monster.

Thanks again for the discussion-- I'll keep an eye on this thread throughout the day. Ya'll rock!

[Guest]

The NC Welcome Centers are helping Floridians find a places to sleep.

[Innotech]

I still dont see a Carolina hit here. synoptics still dont allow much leeway for it. in the itme frame were tlaking about here, the storm will go west and then possibly shoot north as it rounds theridge, but htat will be inland. that is why I think NHC modified their track to point more northward inside florida's peninsula.

[Novacane]

Okay CLTRDU, I'm afraid it's time to come clean.

Below, I have pasted in the exact post of Henry Margusity of Accu-weather from earlier this morning. Normally I wouldn't repost someone else's intellectual property, but I am doing so here because it appears as though you have posted his work as your own. If I am mistaken, or if you are indeed Mr. Margusity, I apologize for missing the reference you made to his work or the incredible coincidence that your thoughts and his are verbatim identical.


Here is Margusity's column:
CONCERNS ABOUT A NON-HIT TO FLORIDA GROWING....

I maybe wrong this morning by saying this, but I'm very concerned that Frances glances Florida and heads towards South Carolina. Here's why...

1. The storm has slowed down and is about even with the southern tip of Florida, so nay dramatic turn to the west will not happen until later in the game if it does at all.

2. Radar now shows the eye of the storm passing over the north shore of Eleuthera Island on a more north-northwest course.

3. The trough over Arkansas is lifting northeast and is actually blocking any westward advance of the storm. Check the cloud and moisture movement on the Water Vapor imagery.

4. Once the Arkansas trough lifts northeast, the ridge will re-build across the East in the advance of the western trough. The ridge axis in 48 hours will be from the eastern Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle. The storm will sense the axis and try to head towards the center point which will bring the storm towards South Carolina.

Look folks, this has been a concern all along. I know I have been bullish on a Florida hit, but as I have watched things evolve this morning, I'm growing more concerned that we have another Floyd type track. That's not to say that folks in Florida should head back home. They should continue prepare and follow local FEMA and EMA's directions.

The 12z model runs are about to come in and once they have I will let you know my thoughts...

Novacane here again. Of course, I suppose it's possible that he ripped off your thoughts. I anxiously await your reply.