12:00 Models for Ivan

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

12:00 Models for Ivan

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:48 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040904 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040904 1200 040905 0000 040905 1200 040906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.8N 38.1W 8.9N 40.6W 9.2N 43.2W 9.6N 45.8W
BAMM 8.8N 38.1W 8.8N 40.9W 9.1N 44.0W 9.5N 47.2W
A98E 8.8N 38.1W 8.6N 41.4W 8.7N 44.6W 8.9N 47.7W
LBAR 8.8N 38.1W 8.7N 41.2W 8.7N 44.5W 8.8N 47.9W
SHIP 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS 67KTS
DSHP 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040906 1200 040907 1200 040908 1200 040909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 48.5W 11.1N 54.1W 12.5N 59.1W 14.2N 63.4W
BAMM 10.0N 50.5W 10.6N 57.4W 11.5N 64.0W 12.5N 69.9W
A98E 9.0N 50.4W 9.7N 55.3W 10.8N 59.5W 12.4N 63.7W
LBAR 8.8N 51.5W 8.6N 58.4W 9.3N 64.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 73KTS 80KTS 85KTS 90KTS
DSHP 73KTS 80KTS 85KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 38.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.1N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 32.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 60NM

No change in the pressure nor the tracks from the BAMM and BAMD.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 738
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

#2 Postby Hurrilurker » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:00 am

Looks like very good agreement and they all keep him fairly well south (all under 15°N at the 60°W line). Certainly looks like it could be trouble for somebody between Mexico and Florida, though it's silly to get too obsessive about it for another 3-5 days at least, unless you happen to live in the islands.
0 likes   
Top
rainstorm

#3 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:01 am

wow, models have shifted way south
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol and 274 guests