12:00 Models for Ivan

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cycloneye
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12:00 Models for Ivan

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:48 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040904 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040904 1200 040905 0000 040905 1200 040906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.8N 38.1W 8.9N 40.6W 9.2N 43.2W 9.6N 45.8W
BAMM 8.8N 38.1W 8.8N 40.9W 9.1N 44.0W 9.5N 47.2W
A98E 8.8N 38.1W 8.6N 41.4W 8.7N 44.6W 8.9N 47.7W
LBAR 8.8N 38.1W 8.7N 41.2W 8.7N 44.5W 8.8N 47.9W
SHIP 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS 67KTS
DSHP 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040906 1200 040907 1200 040908 1200 040909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 48.5W 11.1N 54.1W 12.5N 59.1W 14.2N 63.4W
BAMM 10.0N 50.5W 10.6N 57.4W 11.5N 64.0W 12.5N 69.9W
A98E 9.0N 50.4W 9.7N 55.3W 10.8N 59.5W 12.4N 63.7W
LBAR 8.8N 51.5W 8.6N 58.4W 9.3N 64.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 73KTS 80KTS 85KTS 90KTS
DSHP 73KTS 80KTS 85KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 38.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.1N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 32.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 60NM

No change in the pressure nor the tracks from the BAMM and BAMD.
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#2 Postby Hurrilurker » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:00 am

Looks like very good agreement and they all keep him fairly well south (all under 15°N at the 60°W line). Certainly looks like it could be trouble for somebody between Mexico and Florida, though it's silly to get too obsessive about it for another 3-5 days at least, unless you happen to live in the islands.
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#3 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:01 am

wow, models have shifted way south
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