new frances forecast.. still 95 but 60 for gom

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Derek Ortt

new frances forecast.. still 95 but 60 for gom

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:03 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


that next large band may just clip me. hope to report on that and not have to restrict service, which I shouldnt have to do at this point
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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rainstorm

#2 Postby rainstorm » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:05 am

good luck
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B-Bear
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#3 Postby B-Bear » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:05 am

Bad link Derek.
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lilbump3000
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:05 am

Your link not working.
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#5 Postby NateFLA » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:06 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

he swapped the .html around ;)
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Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:13 am

link works now
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Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:35 am

well, I may not have brought this far enough into the GOM since this has shifted even farther to the left already
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#8 Postby Agua » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:43 am

Derek,

What will the environmental elements affecting reorganization and intensification in the Gulf look like?

[Edited to include the following:] I realize the SSTs should be favorable. Will there be enough shear to inhibit development, or is it a matter of not enough time over water, state of organization upon reemergence in the Gulf, etc?
Last edited by Agua on Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:45 am

Should a TS warning and Hurricane watch be up for the northern gulf coast at this point?
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Derek Ortt

#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:48 am

well, with the shear going on vacation, we could easily see the intensification I was expecting earlier in the week and it is not impossible for it to gain its current intensity in the GOM, especially if this more westerly track continues
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#11 Postby MSRobi911 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:48 am

Derek

Models show coming in over Pascagoula MS, what would your estimate of the winds be at that time?

Thanks
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#12 Postby Agua » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:50 am

Okay, thanks a ton Derek.
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#13 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:51 am

Now I'm getting alarmed...

The 11am NHC track brings it to 70 mph near Apalachicola Monday Morning. It could easily reach Cat 1 status with that track. If the track goes farther west, it will be even stronger.

The good news, for me, at least, is the track is a lot farther west and now takes it over Eastern Mississippi instead of Central Alabama.
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Derek Ortt

#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Sep 04, 2004 10:01 am

if the eye wall becomes better organized soon, then a cat 2 is not out of the question
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Matthew5

#15 Postby Matthew5 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 10:03 am

Derek it is trying to tighten a smaller eye off. The winds on one of the islands show that there is a smaller eye forming. This is going to get stronger.
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