France still VERY well organized

[Stormcenter]

Frances still looks very well organized as she marches across Florida.
I would NOT be surprised if she reintensifies into at least a 90 mph hurricane after she exits the GOM before making landfall again.


http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Anonymous]

Hell, it weakened more while it was over water two days ago.

[Brent]

I know. I just don't see how it'll weaken to 50 kt(60 mph) before re-emerging. It's only weakened 15 mph as of 11am and the eye has been onshore for 10-11 hours!

[btsgmdad]

Just when you think you have everything figured out, Frances goes and destroys all the myths once again.

[Opal storm]

I wonder how well organized Frances will be when it makes landfall in the panhandle,maybe the west side of the storm will become more active.

[Anonymous]

I think its something to do with its large circulation. Charley was small and fell completely apart while going over Florida, Andrew dropped considerably in mph (And it spent 6 hours over the southern tip).

[x-y-no]

Frances had already spread out into a broader, weaker wind field over the last couple of days - so there wasn't the same sharp gradient there to lose.

[wxman57]

Frances appears to be weakening rather quickly now, though its TS winds are expanding outward. With the current NW motion, only about half the circulation (if that much) will emerge into the extreme NE Gulf tonight. If that's the case, then Frances should be a strong TS for the 12hr period (or less) that it skirts the NE Gulf. I've been monitoring Florida obs closely and can't find any reports of hurricane-force winds inland. I suspect there are still a few pockets of hurricane-force winds in some of the heavier squalls, but Frances should weaken to a TS within the next 6 hours.

[Anonymous]

Despite the weakening, it still sure has a great look on satellite.

[Stormcenter]

Despite the weakening, it still sure had a great look on satellite.

Yes I agree!!!!

[caneman]

Despite the weakening, it still sure had a great look on satellite.

Yes I agree!!!!

I don't know if this is true or not but the Fox National Weather guy said it could actually start to intensify over land as it taps the warm Gulf waters. Any truth to this? We are concerned on the coast of Tampa as that as soon as it hits water it will blow up and give us a good backlash.

[Stormcenter]

Despite the weakening, it still sure had a great look on satellite.

Yes I agree!!!!

I don't know if this is true or not but the Fox National Weather guy said it could actually start to intensify over land as it taps the warm Gulf waters. Any truth to this? We are concerned on the coast of Tampa as that as soon as it hits water it will blow up and give us a good backlash.

Isn't that what Gaston did?

[Stormcenter]

Frances appears to be weakening rather quickly now, though its TS winds are expanding outward. With the current NW motion, only about half the circulation (if that much) will emerge into the extreme NE Gulf tonight. If that's the case, then Frances should be a strong TS for the 12hr period (or less) that it skirts the NE Gulf. I've been monitoring Florida obs closely and can't find any reports of hurricane-force winds inland. I suspect there are still a few pockets of hurricane-force winds in some of the heavier squalls, but Frances should weaken to a TS within the next 6 hours.

Actually moving wnw at 9mph. I think she will come out further south than the NHC has her coming out. I also still think she will be a hurricane
when she makes a second landfall.

[Cookiely]

Frances appears to be weakening rather quickly now, though its TS winds are expanding outward. With the current NW motion, only about half the circulation (if that much) will emerge into the extreme NE Gulf tonight. If that's the case, then Frances should be a strong TS for the 12hr period (or less) that it skirts the NE Gulf. I've been monitoring Florida obs closely and can't find any reports of hurricane-force winds inland. I suspect there are still a few pockets of hurricane-force winds in some of the heavier squalls, but Frances should weaken to a TS within the next 6 hours.

Actually moving wnw at 9mph. I think she will come out further south than the NHC has her coming out. I also still think she will be a hurricane
when she makes a second landfall.

I agree on the track and I think the likely hood of a backlash is significant in light of the fact Frances "the slug" likes to stall over the water.

[Storminole]

Subject: France still VERY well organized

Oh I think the country's been a mess since the French Revolution.