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patsmsg
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#581 Postby patsmsg » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:47 pm

I see what you mean. It looks like it's at a point in the cycle where it is getting better formed. The next recon will be interesting to see.
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#582 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:47 pm

INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


That's at landfall.

:eek: :(
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#583 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:47 pm

hurricanedude wrote:no..this is not flaming...she is just speculating.....she is not bashing anyone
after what the residents of florida have been through, I for one need some scientific explanation. That post will only scare the heeby jeebies out of folks. So why are you saying that helen??
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#584 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:48 pm

rainstorm wrote:what a great path. nothing like a cat 5 destroying
the state of florida


You are really exaggerating things here. :roll:
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#585 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:48 pm

:eek:
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#586 Postby nomolos » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:48 pm

we dont need this...florida doesnt need this. im hoping it goes out to sea
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#587 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:48 pm

she obviously mentioned it as a sarcastic remark, not a scientific remark...take it easy on Helen, shes a good s2k member
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#588 Postby LCfromFL » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:48 pm

Ivan go away!
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#589 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:49 pm

Yes at landfall near FT Myers on my.But this changes with every run so dont see this as a given.
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#590 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:49 pm

hurricanedude wrote:obviously someone dont know what the difference is in posting opinions and bashing members..her post is fine imo


opinion is one thing...but to these storm beaten people in Fla....comments like these without some know proof....are not neccesary.
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#591 Postby tracyswfla » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:49 pm

:cry: :(

Need I say more!
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#592 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:50 pm

come on guys....the cone clearly shows anywhere from the central gulf to FL is at risk...so her comment was backed up by scientific backings
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#593 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:50 pm

hurricanedude wrote:she obviously mentioned it as a sarcastic remark, not a scientific remark...take it easy on Helen, shes a good s2k member
never said she wasn't :wink: Just saying a lot of folks are on edge and that post will only serve to upset people. Thats all Mike :wink:
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12z GFDL moves it into EGOM.

#594 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:50 pm

Code: Select all

HURRICANE IVAN      09L

INITIAL TIME  12Z SEP  8

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            12.5             65.5           280./14.9
   6            13.0             66.8           290./13.5
  12            13.6             68.1           295./13.6
  18            14.1             69.5           292./14.9
  24            14.7             70.9           293./14.7
  30            15.3             72.2           294./14.3
  36            16.1             73.4           303./13.5
  42            16.8             74.5           305./12.5
  48            17.6             75.7           300./14.1
  54            18.1             76.8           295./11.6
  60            18.5             77.7           296./ 9.5
  66            18.9             78.7           293./ 9.6
  72            19.3             79.4           299./ 8.0
  78            19.8             80.1           304./ 7.7
  84            20.2             80.7           308./ 7.4
  90            20.8             81.3           310./ 8.5
  96            21.4             82.1           308./ 9.6
 102            21.8             82.9           300./ 8.2
 108            22.5             83.3           327./ 7.1
 114            23.0             83.8           316./ 7.1
 120            23.9             84.2           334./ 9.5
 126            24.8             84.5           344./10.2

That last plot doesn't have a landfall but it moves it into the EGOM.
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#595 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:51 pm

I don't know - I think by now, we all know that these models can change, the paths can change, and there's no certainty in ANY path or landfall area right now. People need to bear that in mind when reading these posts. I, for one, took no offense to her comment, although I did respond back good-naturedly :wink:
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Rainband

#596 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:51 pm

I saw that, too close for comfort. I hope the models shift way east!! :wink:
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#597 Postby TyphoonTim » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:51 pm

Yikes, that would be scary. But, from watching Frances last week it seemed like the UKMET was always the outlier more than 2 days out. I think it's way too soon to consider where it will make landfall.
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#598 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:52 pm

hurricanedude wrote:she obviously mentioned it as a sarcastic remark, not a scientific remark...take it easy on Helen, shes a good s2k member


so am i!! I am the last person to make such comments.... But i have seen post deleted for people making "landfall for sure" remarks just because she has 3000+ post that makes her immune?? If she had 3 post the post would be gone!
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Dude! Wheres Ivan Going?

#599 Postby Yankeegirl » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:52 pm

Just for fun... I love to hear you guys' thoughts on him! And I forgot to add Florida to the list... Sorry about that!
Last edited by Yankeegirl on Wed Sep 08, 2004 1:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#600 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:53 pm

offending someone and flaming someone is WAY different....SHE NEVER SAID ANYTHING BAD TO ANY ONE PERSON
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