Ivan Advisories

[patsmsg]

I see what you mean. It looks like it's at a point in the cycle where it is getting better formed. The next recon will be interesting to see.

[Brent]

INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

That's at landfall.

[Rainband]

no..this is not flaming...she is just speculating.....she is not bashing anyone

after what the residents of florida have been through, I for one need some scientific explanation. That post will only scare the heeby jeebies out of folks. So why are you saying that helen??

[Thunder44]

what a great path. nothing like a cat 5 destroying
the state of florida

You are really exaggerating things here.

[Canelaw99]

[nomolos]

we dont need this...florida doesnt need this. im hoping it goes out to sea

[hurricanedude]

she obviously mentioned it as a sarcastic remark, not a scientific remark...take it easy on Helen, shes a good s2k member

[LCfromFL]

Ivan go away!

[cycloneye]

Yes at landfall near FT Myers on my.But this changes with every run so dont see this as a given.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

obviously someone dont know what the difference is in posting opinions and bashing members..her post is fine imo

opinion is one thing...but to these storm beaten people in Fla....comments like these without some know proof....are not neccesary.

[tracyswfla]

Need I say more!

[hurricanedude]

come on guys....the cone clearly shows anywhere from the central gulf to FL is at risk...so her comment was backed up by scientific backings

[Rainband]

she obviously mentioned it as a sarcastic remark, not a scientific remark...take it easy on Helen, shes a good s2k member

never said she wasn't Just saying a lot of folks are on edge and that post will only serve to upset people. Thats all Mike

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

HURRICANE IVAN      09L

INITIAL TIME  12Z SEP  8

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            12.5             65.5           280./14.9
   6            13.0             66.8           290./13.5
  12            13.6             68.1           295./13.6
  18            14.1             69.5           292./14.9
  24            14.7             70.9           293./14.7
  30            15.3             72.2           294./14.3
  36            16.1             73.4           303./13.5
  42            16.8             74.5           305./12.5
  48            17.6             75.7           300./14.1
  54            18.1             76.8           295./11.6
  60            18.5             77.7           296./ 9.5
  66            18.9             78.7           293./ 9.6
  72            19.3             79.4           299./ 8.0
  78            19.8             80.1           304./ 7.7
  84            20.2             80.7           308./ 7.4
  90            20.8             81.3           310./ 8.5
  96            21.4             82.1           308./ 9.6
 102            21.8             82.9           300./ 8.2
 108            22.5             83.3           327./ 7.1
 114            23.0             83.8           316./ 7.1
 120            23.9             84.2           334./ 9.5
 126            24.8             84.5           344./10.2

That last plot doesn't have a landfall but it moves it into the EGOM.

[Canelaw99]

I don't know - I think by now, we all know that these models can change, the paths can change, and there's no certainty in ANY path or landfall area right now. People need to bear that in mind when reading these posts. I, for one, took no offense to her comment, although I did respond back good-naturedly

[Rainband]

I saw that, too close for comfort. I hope the models shift way east!!

[TyphoonTim]

Yikes, that would be scary. But, from watching Frances last week it seemed like the UKMET was always the outlier more than 2 days out. I think it's way too soon to consider where it will make landfall.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

she obviously mentioned it as a sarcastic remark, not a scientific remark...take it easy on Helen, shes a good s2k member

so am i!! I am the last person to make such comments.... But i have seen post deleted for people making "landfall for sure" remarks just because she has 3000+ post that makes her immune?? If she had 3 post the post would be gone!

[Yankeegirl]

Just for fun... I love to hear you guys' thoughts on him! And I forgot to add Florida to the list... Sorry about that!

[hurricanedude]

offending someone and flaming someone is WAY different....SHE NEVER SAID ANYTHING BAD TO ANY ONE PERSON