Ivan Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#2521 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:44 pm

chris_fit wrote:i dont see why the track was shifted so far west at 5


Me either. :roll:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
PanAmMIA
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:48 pm
Location: St. Cloud, FL; Islamorada, FL; Tortola, BVI

Re: Iván adds another record to its list!

#2522 Postby PanAmMIA » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:44 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Ivás has become the southernmost category five in record to have form in the Atlantic Ocean. Do we need more surprises?


Not sure if you're asking a rhetorical question or not :eek: Perhaps a Cat6?
Mike
0 likes   

Lebowsky

#2523 Postby Lebowsky » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:46 pm

Panic is not good, it gets in the way. We should hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Make a list of things that need doing. Figure out what you will do if the hurricane turns one way or another, it will effect evacuation plans. If your home might flood, get the valuable stuff up high. Clean out the freezer. Keep yourself busy getting prepared and you won't have to panic later.
0 likes   

das8929

#2524 Postby das8929 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:46 pm

Lol @ Cat 6. But really, this hurricane is insanely south. I mean, it brushed S America!
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3249
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#2525 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:46 pm

False sense of security for lots of Floridians. All the mets here kept saying THE TRACK SHFITED WEST THIS IS GOOD NEWS.

Ya ok
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#2526 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:46 pm

Im clueless as well. Do you guys think that the recent GFDL poop is temporary or a sign that perhaps south florida is under the gun more now?

<RICKY>
0 likes   

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#2527 Postby feederband » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:47 pm

Probably west cost of florida.
0 likes   

User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:

#2528 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:47 pm

Ahhhh. See the models have been smoking the GFS Wacky tobacky
0 likes   

Guest

Pressure back down to 920

#2529 Postby Guest » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:47 pm

963
URNT12 KNHC 092145
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2145Z
B. 15 DEG 03 MIN N
72 DEG 28 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2403 M
D. 060 KT
E. 227 DEG 027 NM
F. 330 DEG 111 KT
G. 235 DEG 005 NM
H. 920 MB
I. 11 C/ 3080 M
J. 17 C/ 3060 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/.5 NM
P. AF977 1109A IVAN OB 15
MAX FL WIND 144 KT NE QUAD 1835Z.
0 likes   

User avatar
huricanwatcher
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 65
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:09 pm
Location: Kirkwood NY
Contact:

#2530 Postby huricanwatcher » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:48 pm

that was an earlier model......... lets see the 20
0 likes   

User avatar
PanAmMIA
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:48 pm
Location: St. Cloud, FL; Islamorada, FL; Tortola, BVI

#2531 Postby PanAmMIA » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:49 pm

Hell, I'm just happy Ivan stayed as far south as it did. No one wants to wish a monster on someone else, but it if involves your life or your property, it's best to let someone else deal with it. Know what I mean.
Mike
0 likes   

Pileus
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 198
Joined: Sun May 11, 2003 5:47 pm
Location: Rock Hill S.C.

#2532 Postby Pileus » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:49 pm

Hugo Vet, here in the upstate the rivers are all still over bankfull. Runoff
downstream from the mountains is thunderous and that was from remnants of Frances. Local mets are worried over the latest tracks of
Ivan. Seems the westerlies love to steer remnants of tropical systems to
the NE if they come ashore in the Florida panhandle. Catastrophic
flooding here the term one met used.
0 likes   

User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

#2533 Postby jabber » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:49 pm

Same here.. I was very surprised they updated the track more west at the 5.
0 likes   

User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2128
Age: 48
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#2534 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:49 pm

Oy...
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherboy1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1189
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL

It's the TREND that matters

#2535 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:49 pm

First, thank goodness my cable was restored today. I don't know if I could go another day with no at-home access to Storm2k! :lol: Now, regarding the models, it's the TREND that matters. The eastern outlier, the GFS, has been slowly trending more westward, while the western outliers, the UKMET and CMC, have been slowly trending more eastward. Others (NOGAPS, ECMWF) have been relatively similar from run to run, with the NOGAPS showing a path N just off the west coast of Florida and the ECMWF plowing Ivan straight up the spine of the state. Another trend: Many models have started indicating more of a NE or NNE "hook" in the 120-hour period or so, as opposed to a move due N.

Put it all together, and you get a TREND toward a landfall somewhere between Tampa on the west coast of FL and Miami/Broward on the east coast (or possibly, a close miss to the east). I do believe that's what we'll eventually see, though as I've maintained in other posts, it truly is too early to tell.
0 likes   

User avatar
Travelgirl
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:20 pm

#2536 Postby Travelgirl » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:49 pm

Looks like a jog to due west in the lastest frame. I might be wrong.
0 likes   

User avatar
PanAmMIA
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:48 pm
Location: St. Cloud, FL; Islamorada, FL; Tortola, BVI

#2537 Postby PanAmMIA » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:50 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:Oy...


You forgot to add the Gevalt :lol:
0 likes   

SootyTern
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 316
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: NYC (formerly Homestead, FL)

#2538 Postby SootyTern » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:50 pm

Is it my misperception or did the models trend towards the E yesterday when the actual movement of Ivan was still mostly W; today between the 0500 and the 1700 advisories Ivan has gained more latitude than at any other time in his existence, yet the models/NHC forecast shifted W this evening. I'm also tracking this storm old-school on a tracking chart and the current direction of movement, if it continues without a serious left wobble, might take Ivan barely N of Jamaica.
0 likes   

Deana Cuevas

#2539 Postby Deana Cuevas » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:51 pm

Great! I'm in Tampa! The models show it going North of us. Any sugestions?
0 likes   

PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:

#2540 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:51 pm

this message is pretty old...we've known this for ~2 hours now.
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests