Ivan Advisories

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

...TWC

[Stormcenter]

First, thank goodness my cable was restored today. I don't know if I could go another day with no at-home access to Storm2k! Now, regarding the models, it's the TREND that matters. The eastern outlier, the GFS, has been slowly trending more westward, while the western outliers, the UKMET and CMC, have been slowly trending more eastward. Others (NOGAPS, ECMWF) have been relatively similar from run to run, with the NOGAPS showing a path N just off the west coast of Florida and the ECMWF plowing Ivan straight up the spine of the state. Another trend: Many models have started indicating more of a NE or NNE "hook" in the 120-hour period or so, as opposed to a move due N.

Put it all together, and you get a TREND toward a landfall somewhere between Tampa on the west coast of FL and Miami/Broward on the east coast (or possibly, a close miss to the east). I do believe that's what we'll eventually see,

though as I've maintained in other posts, it truly is too early to tell.

Thank you.

Like man the said it's too early to tell.

[ilmc172pilot]

seems like after lanfall in florida, the rest of the east coast gets nailed also

[Brent]

Yes... the vortex 2 hours ago showed that(144 kts). Translates to 150 mph(roughly) at the surface.

[btsgmdad]

That still leaves the storm at 150mph after taking 10% off for the surface winds.

[Brent]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html


Edit: Don't know why pressure didn't go to 920 based on recon.

[canegrl04]

Probably means 150 actual with Ivan

[Matthew5]

I would not be surprized if the next recon found pressures down around 918 or lower. With winds of 175 to 180 flight level. When is the next recon?

[Anonymous]

People...please don't get too concerned about what a model is predicting 5 days from now. You need to be concerned when the models start nailing landfall 3 days out, and even then, there is a 75 mile margin of error, to the right and to the left of a given track. Right now, it is pure insanity to think this storm is definitely going to hit a location near you.

[tailgater]

great discussion, Thanks Kennethb

[Air Force Met]

I think Tampa as a cat 3. Even though the H2O temps are 86 off the west coast of Florida...the TCHP is low due to Charley. Winds 115-125 mph. Cat 4 is not out of the question...but think the likelyhood is less than 30%.

Of course...cat 3 is bad enough.

[WeatherEmperor]

Ivan slowed down just a tad tad bit.

<RICKY>

[PanAmMIA]

Put it all together, and you get a TREND toward a landfall somewhere between Tampa on the west coast of FL and Miami/Broward on the east coast (or possibly, a close miss to the east). I do believe that's what we'll eventually see, though as I've maintained in other posts, it truly is too early to tell.[/quote]

This might be too geeky to talk about on a board directly related to weather but has anyone considered the effects Frances and now, potentially Ivan, are going to have on Florida agriculture? Does anyone in my old neck of the woods have an update as to how the sugar cane farmers have handled the winds? I hear the foliage and houseplant industry in east central Florida took a big hit. Don't be expecting cheap poinsiettas and other foliage anytime soon.
Mike

[huricanwatcher]

and ya all still thinking its gom storm?.....

hmmmmmmmm..

[Jetman]

000
URNT12 KNHC 092329
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2329Z
B. 15 DEG 09 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2429 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 067 DEG 129 KT
G. 324 DEG 013 NM
H. 924 MB
I. 9 C/ 3105 M
J. 18 C/ 3063 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 1109A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NW QUAD 2324Z.

;

[PurdueWx80]

000
URNT12 KNHC 092329
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2329Z
B. 15 DEG 09 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2429 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 067 DEG 129 KT
G. 324 DEG 013 NM
H. 924 MB
I. 9 C/ 3105 M
J. 18 C/ 3063 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 1109A IVAN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NW QUAD 2324Z.

Up to 924...good guess though

[canegrl04]

I expect Ivan to be back up to cat 5 by 11pm,or early morning

[Guest]

I would not be surprized if the next recon found pressures down around 918 or lower. With winds of 175 to 180 flight level. When is the next recon?

Last post tonight. Landfall in Jamacia just south of Kingston. Landfall in US Key West 2nd landfall Ft. Myers/ Lee county regardless of the wind it will a disastar for area previously hit by Charley IF this track verifies. Here's to hoping me and my track is on crack!

One last prediction.. another power surge tonight and 910 pressure 170 mph cane.

Purdue can I get link to your forecast?

[calidoug]

EWRC

[PanAmMIA]

I think Tampa as a cat 3. Even though the H2O temps are 86 off the west coast of Florida...the TCHP is low due to Charley. Winds 115-125 mph. Cat 4 is not out of the question...but think the likelyhood is less than 30%.

Of course...cat 3 is bad enough.

Of course a minimum Cat1 would wipe Cedar Key in Levy County off the map.
Mike