Ivan Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- huricanwatcher
- Category 3
- Posts: 893
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:09 pm
- Location: Kirkwood NY
- Contact:
The Euro was so bad with Charley that a blindfolded chimp would have done better. I am still waiting for the Galveston landfall. I don't even consider the Euro model.
The hurricane models are based off of the GFS; therefore, I have set them aside since I have some questions regarding the GFS initial conditions
The hurricane models are based off of the GFS; therefore, I have set them aside since I have some questions regarding the GFS initial conditions
0 likes
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
The Galveston landfall was only a couple runs, then after that, the landfall was nailed. More importantly, it nailed Frances almost down to the street while most other models moved north. This is 6 runs in a row and it follows the GFS to some degree. I find it tough to argue with models that are obviously initiallizing the low in the east Atlantic well if you look at the water vapor. You very well could be right, but I find it hard to believe that you discount two models that are designed to handle mid latitude systems and it is mid latitude systems that will be steering this hurricane.
0 likes
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
Yes, apparently they are taking the "slight move to the right" forecast very seriously. My family in Punta Gorda are coming here this weekend -- they've had enough! Of course, so have we
after Frances.
Our county was bumper-to-bumper traffic going north today and we're 1 1/2 hours N. of Tampa Bay!

Our county was bumper-to-bumper traffic going north today and we're 1 1/2 hours N. of Tampa Bay!
0 likes
- huricanwatcher
- Category 3
- Posts: 893
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 6:09 pm
- Location: Kirkwood NY
- Contact:
- AL Chili Pepper
- Category 3
- Posts: 873
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:15 pm
- Location: Mobile, AL
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6684
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Derek Ortt wrote:graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html
This forecast is RIGHT of NOGAPS, CMC, near UKMET, and right of GFDN (version of GFDL we probably should be using)
I hope you keep on going further right with each forecast. Hopefully you'll have your track out to sea over the Atlantic.

Anyway I'll buy into your forecast track, as matter fact I'll buy into any reasonable forecast. I can't believe we still have several more days of waiting. I personally would like to see him pick up speed and get it over with. The Ivan story is getting old quickly. Is it Florida or not?
0 likes
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 34
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: Pensacola News Journal
If the storm hits near Mobile, Ala., Pensacola would have major damage.
We have many long bridges over waterways.
If it hit at it's current strength, I fear chunks of the bridges would fall in the water.
This would mean over 50-mile detours with little gas.
If the storm hits Tallassee, this area would have less damage.
We have many long bridges over waterways.
If it hit at it's current strength, I fear chunks of the bridges would fall in the water.
This would mean over 50-mile detours with little gas.
If the storm hits Tallassee, this area would have less damage.
0 likes
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
Canelaw99 wrote:TY Dixie - I think we all need to pray for all Floridians at this point.... what a season it's been so far...geez.... :)
I've heard it said that hurricanes are one example of Mother Nature's way of rejuvenating herself.
Kinda seems like Florida's getting a facelift with a sandblaster, though. Overkill. Good luck, Jamaica, Cuba, and....
0 likes
LYONS: Miami Looking Less Likely
Tonight he said we are looking at a Charley scenario setting up,maybe people as far away as Mobile,AL will have to watch this 

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests