Ivan Advisories

[logybogy]

It could pass north of Jamaica if this keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Guest]

Hello everyone . answer this question for me. why do you have negative things to say about the experts at the nhc.twc.& accuweather ?You must be checking their sites or watching them on TV to make statements on what they have predicted so if you donot believe them why do you check it out???? Just a question

[jdray]

29.5N 83.0W is right in the Big Bend area of Florida.

Well north of Punta Gorda.

[c5Camille]

it's just you...

looks 290 to 300 to me, my protractor
and my strait edge...

[yoda]

It will be VERY close.. but depending if it passes north or south of the island will make a big difference in Ivan's futute path...

[Matthew5]

Yes very interesting...We will have to see

[calidoug]

0315Z currently:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

EWRC almost done...

[mobilebay]

Watch recon fixes to judge movements, Not ir frame to frame.

[wxwatcher2]

Watching the Weather Channel is like reading USA Today to get local
news.....Real generic and vanilla....I hate to sound harsh for any Weather Channel lovers but there are so many other and better sources

Much better sources for the internet but not on Cable TV.
TWC is it........
I agree with the generic weather comment.
They basicly just give you an overview of the general weather patterns.
Add in a pretty face and you have TWC

[Matthew5]

Yeah this hurricane is about ready to bomb with in the next 6 hours. Very bad for Jamaica!

[Guest]

Yeah this hurricane is about ready to bomb with in the next 6 hours. Very bad for Jamaica!

Why do you say this system is going to bomb???

[Storminole]

If the 11 pm NHC tracks plays out as predicted, it means a direct hit for Tampa/St. Pete, especially the Pinellas County coastal area. No doubt also a big surge up into Tampa Bay as Ivan passes. If that happens, Charley and Frances will be remembered as mere warm-up drills for the big one yet to come.

Final landfall on this track seems to come in further north, around Cedar Key--an isolated Gulf outpost that's a quaint throwback to the days before developers ruled Florida. It's sad to think about Cedar Key taking a hit, but then I'm sure they've weathered many a storm in the past. In recent years though I can't remember anything menacing them since Elena surprisingly bounced away toward MS in 1985.

[Stormsfury]

RECON indicated on its way out, that the ERC may have completed as they were leaving, but they also noted that another wind maxima on the northern semicircle has also begun, indicating that another ERC was about to take place ...

SF

[B-Bear]

It's a good discussion. There is one thing though that I'm not sure I agree with. I don't believe the mountains of Jamaica are significant enough--either in height or width--to destroy Ivan. They indeed could affect his intensity some, but I seriously doubt they have the ability to destroy him. In fact, if Ivan tracks along the southern edge of Jamaica, I doubt they will even disrupt his intensity much because his core is still rather compact.

Just my 2 cents. But, again, nice discussion.

[jacindc]

Geez, Elena, I remember spending that weekend in Gainesville in 1985 waiting for the damn thing, and then she turned. (as you can imagine, college students far inland had quite the parties lined up)

And then I *really* was mad a few months later when Kate headed toward Tallahassee and nixed my trip up there to see R.E.M.!

[montrealboy]

60 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 695_50.gif

84 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 133_50.gif

96 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 134_50.gif

108 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 135_50.gif

120 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 136_50.gif

144 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdd_50.gif

168 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hde_50.gif

[AL Chili Pepper]

Dang....it's not gonna give an inch, is it?

[mobilebay]

Canadian holding steady. The new GFS for about the 5th straight run is more west and south through42 H.

[Sanibel]

If you noticed, a larger red donut similar to the one from last night has reappeared. If I am interpreting this improvement in structure correctly we have no reason not to believe another increase up to category 5 hasn't commenced.

How this plays out in relation to Jamaica depends on several factors including environmental disruption or more frequent cycling. However, this behavior leaves open the possibility of an even stronger core about to enter an intensification phase. If Ivan follows previous behavior Jamaica could encounter the tail-end of a category 5 strengthening phase. I believe this present improvement would at least guarantee category 4 intensity as it crosses the island...

[Mister Popps]

Cedar Key was affected by the 1993 storm of the century with storm surge.