Ivan Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

#3081 Postby gboudx » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:56 am

B-Bear wrote:Yeah, he also said that the Bush administration has developed technology which enables us to make hurricanes go where we want them to go, and that we're sending them to Cuba to punish them.

If only it were true...


Obviously he's wrong. But we do have the technology to send a missile from thousands of miles away to hit a target within about 3 ft of accuracy.
0 likes   

EverythingIsEverything
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 107
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:18 pm
Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
Contact:

#3082 Postby EverythingIsEverything » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:56 am

ColdWaterConch wrote:I can't see a conch going past Miami....they for sure are not going past Orlando, b/c they want to get back to the islands ASAP.

Actually, I just spoke to my father...he is trying to board up best that he can (he ordered storm shutters after Charley...but they have a 2 mo backorder). He said that everyone down there is spooked and is getting out.



I pray your father will be just fine!
0 likes   

User avatar
alicia-w
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 2:55 pm
Location: Tijeras, NM

#3083 Postby alicia-w » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:58 am

http://www.cubaweather.org/

Looks like they've issued a Hurricane Warning , according that site.
0 likes   

Ziplock48

If (when) Ivan

#3084 Postby Ziplock48 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:59 am

When Ivan muscles that big bunch of convection to the SE of the eye around and to the NE and then wraps it in, I think we will see very rapid stregnthening.

It is as if he is winding up to throw a shotput...the windup and weight are the potential energy...and since he will keep that energy close in, physics suggests that the speed must increase.

I'm afraid to say it, but that looks very bad for Jamaica in the next 6 hours or so.
Zip
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#3085 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:59 am

BlueNole wrote:Thanks. But does "bomb" generally describe strengthening? Or does it describe some monumental occurance?

[/quote]

That is actually a meteorological term we use to denote explosive deepening. We use the same terms for extratropical systems that deepen really rapidly...usually at a rate of 1mb/hour for 24 horus (in extratropical). We call them "bombs."
0 likes   

ColdWaterConch
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Thu Sep 18, 2003 12:08 pm
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (formerly KW, FL)

#3086 Postby ColdWaterConch » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:00 am

TX...he will be fine...probably suffer some loss to his business, but otherwise ok (his condo has shutters; his office not yet...but it is in one of the highest elevations on the island....a whole 12'!). He is taking his computers with him and bagging everything else.

We lived through Andrew in a closet, and vowed never to do that again...
0 likes   

DoctorHurricane2003

#3087 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:00 am

I believe this is a continued ERC from yesterday. They typically run 20-30 hours, Frances's rapid ERCs were something to note.........as they generally went less than 20 hours which cause instability in the system.

Ivan is just normal. :)
0 likes   

User avatar
wxwatcher2
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 282
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:51 pm
Location: Central Florida

#3088 Postby wxwatcher2 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:01 am

B-Bear wrote:Yeah, he also said that the Bush administration has developed technology which enables us to make hurricanes go where we want them to go, and that we're sending them to Cuba to punish them.

If only it were true...


Yea right, like we are sending 3 storms to florida in a month at the cost of billions of dollars.

The people of Cuba are great people. It's Fidel who is out to lunch.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Morning Ivan forecast... only slightly right

#3089 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:01 am

but basically the same as last evening


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

and yes, this is a serious threat to the florida keys
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#3090 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:02 am

the models have no clue intensity changes
0 likes   

inotherwords
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 773
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:04 pm
Location: Nokomis, FL

#3091 Postby inotherwords » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:03 am

Derek, are you feeling pretty secure about Miami not being a direct target? I'm thinking about evacuating over there.

I know most anything can happen, but from what I've read the past few days, it seems the west coast and eastern Gulf are pretty consistently mentioned as track targets.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxwatcher2
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 282
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:51 pm
Location: Central Florida

#3092 Postby wxwatcher2 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:03 am

Lots of people using the power of prayer to weaken Ivan or at least lessen his affects on Jamaica.
0 likes   

HugoCameandLeft
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:42 am
Location: Charleston, SC

Emergence in Atlantic - Then what?

#3093 Postby HugoCameandLeft » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:03 am

Assuming Ivan does what the models are saying, and re-emerges in the Atlantic, what does guidance and expertise (I certainly don't have the latter) suggest about its path from there? I realize its hard to say, but what factors will come into play with it then?

I suppose my real question is what will cause it, if anything, to turn back to the west towards the Carolinas?
0 likes   

flair
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:46 pm

#3094 Postby flair » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:04 am

The Carolinas are going to be hit no matter what. An eastern track with a second landfall in SC/NC with the storm in a somewhat weakened state would actually be the better event as far as the Carolinas is concerned, I think. The GFDL and NOGAPS western track would be a disaster of epic proportions in western NC, similar to Floyd/Dennis in the eastern part in 1999. Anybody seen the news the last two days?
0 likes   

Anonymous

5 Models Converge

#3095 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:04 am

Which model do you support?

LBAR - Shows SW Fla Hit with travel over Lake Ocheechobe and out over West Palm Beach

NHCA9BE- Shows SW Fla Hit with travel North of Lake Ocheechobe and East North of WPB

BAMM- SW Fla hit with exit on East coast at Fort Pierce

BAMD - SW Fla hit with exit on East coast around Daytona

UKMET- SW Fla hit with exit on East coast South of Jacksonville

GFDL- Tampa direct hit and then due North into GA

NHC- Tampa direct hit and then due North into GA

5 models support East Coast exit...which model do you agree with and why? I have my own theory but will open it up to you all first.
0 likes   

User avatar
shaner
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:02 am
Location: Calgary, AB

#3096 Postby shaner » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:05 am

x-y-no wrote:
mrschad wrote:I would like to know what all those A to P stats represent. Is there a link somewhere that can explain this vortex thing to me? Thanks.
...Jennifer...


http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.htm
Thank you.
0 likes   

Matt
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 29
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:55 am
Location: Norwood, MA

#3097 Postby Matt » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:05 am

Not an expert, but hasn't this weekening gone on too long to be an ERC?
It looks like some clasic shear to me
0 likes   

tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#3098 Postby tracyswfla » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:06 am

I am evacuating to Macon GA there are hardly any rooms there. I don' think anywhere in FL is safe!
0 likes   

Guest

#3099 Postby Guest » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:06 am

UKMET looks more like the correct path to me, but noone knows.
0 likes   

HugoCameandLeft
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 45
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:42 am
Location: Charleston, SC

#3100 Postby HugoCameandLeft » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:06 am

keep an eye on A98E, I expect him to get back on the rock today and start projecting landfall in Cancun, after visiting Houston.
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests