Ivan Advisories

[gboudx]

Yeah, he also said that the Bush administration has developed technology which enables us to make hurricanes go where we want them to go, and that we're sending them to Cuba to punish them.

If only it were true...

Obviously he's wrong. But we do have the technology to send a missile from thousands of miles away to hit a target within about 3 ft of accuracy.

[EverythingIsEverything]

I can't see a conch going past Miami....they for sure are not going past Orlando, b/c they want to get back to the islands ASAP.

Actually, I just spoke to my father...he is trying to board up best that he can (he ordered storm shutters after Charley...but they have a 2 mo backorder). He said that everyone down there is spooked and is getting out.

I pray your father will be just fine!

[alicia-w]

http://www.cubaweather.org/

Looks like they've issued a Hurricane Warning , according that site.

[Ziplock48]

When Ivan muscles that big bunch of convection to the SE of the eye around and to the NE and then wraps it in, I think we will see very rapid stregnthening.

It is as if he is winding up to throw a shotput...the windup and weight are the potential energy...and since he will keep that energy close in, physics suggests that the speed must increase.

I'm afraid to say it, but that looks very bad for Jamaica in the next 6 hours or so.
Zip

[Air Force Met]

Thanks. But does "bomb" generally describe strengthening? Or does it describe some monumental occurance?

[/quote]

That is actually a meteorological term we use to denote explosive deepening. We use the same terms for extratropical systems that deepen really rapidly...usually at a rate of 1mb/hour for 24 horus (in extratropical). We call them "bombs."

[ColdWaterConch]

TX...he will be fine...probably suffer some loss to his business, but otherwise ok (his condo has shutters; his office not yet...but it is in one of the highest elevations on the island....a whole 12'!). He is taking his computers with him and bagging everything else.

We lived through Andrew in a closet, and vowed never to do that again...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I believe this is a continued ERC from yesterday. They typically run 20-30 hours, Frances's rapid ERCs were something to note.........as they generally went less than 20 hours which cause instability in the system.

Ivan is just normal.

[wxwatcher2]

Yeah, he also said that the Bush administration has developed technology which enables us to make hurricanes go where we want them to go, and that we're sending them to Cuba to punish them.

If only it were true...

Yea right, like we are sending 3 storms to florida in a month at the cost of billions of dollars.

The people of Cuba are great people. It's Fidel who is out to lunch.

[Derek Ortt]

but basically the same as last evening


http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

and yes, this is a serious threat to the florida keys

[Derek Ortt]

the models have no clue intensity changes

[inotherwords]

Derek, are you feeling pretty secure about Miami not being a direct target? I'm thinking about evacuating over there.

I know most anything can happen, but from what I've read the past few days, it seems the west coast and eastern Gulf are pretty consistently mentioned as track targets.

[wxwatcher2]

Lots of people using the power of prayer to weaken Ivan or at least lessen his affects on Jamaica.

[HugoCameandLeft]

Assuming Ivan does what the models are saying, and re-emerges in the Atlantic, what does guidance and expertise (I certainly don't have the latter) suggest about its path from there? I realize its hard to say, but what factors will come into play with it then?

I suppose my real question is what will cause it, if anything, to turn back to the west towards the Carolinas?

[flair]

The Carolinas are going to be hit no matter what. An eastern track with a second landfall in SC/NC with the storm in a somewhat weakened state would actually be the better event as far as the Carolinas is concerned, I think. The GFDL and NOGAPS western track would be a disaster of epic proportions in western NC, similar to Floyd/Dennis in the eastern part in 1999. Anybody seen the news the last two days?

[Anonymous]

Which model do you support?

LBAR - Shows SW Fla Hit with travel over Lake Ocheechobe and out over West Palm Beach

NHCA9BE- Shows SW Fla Hit with travel North of Lake Ocheechobe and East North of WPB

BAMM- SW Fla hit with exit on East coast at Fort Pierce

BAMD - SW Fla hit with exit on East coast around Daytona

UKMET- SW Fla hit with exit on East coast South of Jacksonville

GFDL- Tampa direct hit and then due North into GA

NHC- Tampa direct hit and then due North into GA

5 models support East Coast exit...which model do you agree with and why? I have my own theory but will open it up to you all first.

[shaner]

I would like to know what all those A to P stats represent. Is there a link somewhere that can explain this vortex thing to me? Thanks.
...Jennifer...

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.htm

Thank you.

[Matt]

Not an expert, but hasn't this weekening gone on too long to be an ERC?
It looks like some clasic shear to me

[tracyswfla]

I am evacuating to Macon GA there are hardly any rooms there. I don' think anywhere in FL is safe!

[Guest]

UKMET looks more like the correct path to me, but noone knows.

[HugoCameandLeft]

keep an eye on A98E, I expect him to get back on the rock today and start projecting landfall in Cancun, after visiting Houston.