Ivan Advisories
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- FloridaDiver
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Re: Ivan will miss Jamaica
Stormcenter wrote:Well folks please explain to me to me why Ivan "looks"
like he will easily past south of Jamaica...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Interesting, take a peek at wxrisk's latest forcast track, looks like he may have this one for now... down the road I'm still thinking its a bit to much on the east side...
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS:
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- feederband
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12Z NOGAPS..... Still Panhandle.........
We now have the FSU Superensemble, CMC, NOGAPS coming toward the Panhandle with the GFDL, UKMET trending that way as well. I think my weekend is getting planned for me, crap!
NOGAPS.....
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation
NOGAPS.....
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation
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My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Ivan Experiencing Significant Shear
my last thread got bumped because I made a joke in the title
at any rate...to repeat, Ivan's NW quad has drastically reduced outflow, almost nonexistent, strong westerlies lie about 5 degrees N of the core of the storm...notice exagerrated outflow channel to his NE, this is not the set-up for a RIC, though some small, short-term intensification will occur before he gains more latitude, we'll have to see if this unexpected shear is the harbinger of his demise
I don't THINK I said anything worthy of censorship in this post
at any rate...to repeat, Ivan's NW quad has drastically reduced outflow, almost nonexistent, strong westerlies lie about 5 degrees N of the core of the storm...notice exagerrated outflow channel to his NE, this is not the set-up for a RIC, though some small, short-term intensification will occur before he gains more latitude, we'll have to see if this unexpected shear is the harbinger of his demise
I don't THINK I said anything worthy of censorship in this post
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Ivan forecast analysis 4 p.m....slight shift to the west
After weakening overnight and this morning due to eyewall replacement and the hurricane moving over cooler (less TCHP) waters, this afternoon both satellite imagery and reconnisance date indicate Ivan is strengthening...as it encounters warmer sst's and TCHP near Jamaica.
It appears the hurricane will pass near or over the southern coast of Jamaica tonight....as an extremely intense hurricane...at least 150 mph, and possibly even stronger. Afterwords, Ivan will IMO move toward the Cayman Islands then western Cuba, passing over the island near Havana....on a track eerily similar to hurricane Charley. Intensification is likely as the hurricane passes over an area west of Jamaica with extremely high oceanic heat content...high octane fuel for a hurricane. I'm currently forecasting Ivan to reach 170 mph (150 kt) over the northwest Caribbean before reaching Cuba....and that might be conservative....especially since the hurricane may pass far enough south of Jamaica to avoid major disruptions to the core circulation.
As for U.S. landfall.....it's almost a certainty that hurricane Ivan will impact the U.S. coastline as a powerful hurricane. I'm currently forecasting the hurricane to pass near or just west of Key West and the lower Florida Keys, then inland along the Florida west coast between Sarasota and Naples...in the same area where Charley impacted only a month ago.
However, Ivan has a larger core of destructive winds than Charley....so landfall in the Captiva Island to Port Charlotte area would also mean major hurricane conditions in Sarasota county as well as the Fort Myers/ Naples area.
Please listen to all advice and warnings by your local and state emergency management officials...and if ordered to evacuate, please do so without delay.
For my complete 20z (4 pm edt) forecast track, please click here:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts
It appears the hurricane will pass near or over the southern coast of Jamaica tonight....as an extremely intense hurricane...at least 150 mph, and possibly even stronger. Afterwords, Ivan will IMO move toward the Cayman Islands then western Cuba, passing over the island near Havana....on a track eerily similar to hurricane Charley. Intensification is likely as the hurricane passes over an area west of Jamaica with extremely high oceanic heat content...high octane fuel for a hurricane. I'm currently forecasting Ivan to reach 170 mph (150 kt) over the northwest Caribbean before reaching Cuba....and that might be conservative....especially since the hurricane may pass far enough south of Jamaica to avoid major disruptions to the core circulation.
As for U.S. landfall.....it's almost a certainty that hurricane Ivan will impact the U.S. coastline as a powerful hurricane. I'm currently forecasting the hurricane to pass near or just west of Key West and the lower Florida Keys, then inland along the Florida west coast between Sarasota and Naples...in the same area where Charley impacted only a month ago.
However, Ivan has a larger core of destructive winds than Charley....so landfall in the Captiva Island to Port Charlotte area would also mean major hurricane conditions in Sarasota county as well as the Fort Myers/ Naples area.
Please listen to all advice and warnings by your local and state emergency management officials...and if ordered to evacuate, please do so without delay.
For my complete 20z (4 pm edt) forecast track, please click here:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts
Last edited by SouthernWx on Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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