Ivan Advisories

[calidoug]

Apparently, Dennis told us Frances would make landfall as a TS....

[FloridaDiver]

Well folks please explain to me to me why Ivan "looks"
like he will easily past south of Jamaica...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Interesting, take a peek at wxrisk's latest forcast track, looks like he may have this one for now... down the road I'm still thinking its a bit to much on the east side...

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS:

[cycloneye]

I say 140 mph.

[chris_fit]

145

[yoda]

I agree with 140 mph.. but if the next vortex shows the pressure dropping more, I may need to change...

[feederband]

145

[yoda]

It's like a bouncy ball

LOL!! and

[kevin]

Please, if you want a cool smile feel free to use my version =D << you can't get much happier than that. Emoticons use up bandwidth, or so it is said.

=D =D =D =D =D oh look a cyclopse! +D and a fish <*}}}>< and a letter V..

[Dean4Storms]

We now have the FSU Superensemble, CMC, NOGAPS coming toward the Panhandle with the GFDL, UKMET trending that way as well. I think my weekend is getting planned for me, crap!

NOGAPS.....

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation

[Anonymous]

Who voted over 155 mph?

[Brent]

I'm torn between 140 and 145.

I voted 145 based mostly on the fact that the pressure has dropped.

[meteorjosh]

my last thread got bumped because I made a joke in the title
at any rate...to repeat, Ivan's NW quad has drastically reduced outflow, almost nonexistent, strong westerlies lie about 5 degrees N of the core of the storm...notice exagerrated outflow channel to his NE, this is not the set-up for a RIC, though some small, short-term intensification will occur before he gains more latitude, we'll have to see if this unexpected shear is the harbinger of his demise
I don't THINK I said anything worthy of censorship in this post

[TyphoonTim]

Yikes! Doesn't look good for the panhandle or us in Atlanta either.

[chris_fit]

All i see is a ULL in the Bahamas venting it.


I still dont see any shear, yet. but ok.

[calidoug]

There's no shear right now.

[Brent]

There's no shear.

[canegrl04]

The elusive phantom shear

[SouthernWx]

After weakening overnight and this morning due to eyewall replacement and the hurricane moving over cooler (less TCHP) waters, this afternoon both satellite imagery and reconnisance date indicate Ivan is strengthening...as it encounters warmer sst's and TCHP near Jamaica.

It appears the hurricane will pass near or over the southern coast of Jamaica tonight....as an extremely intense hurricane...at least 150 mph, and possibly even stronger. Afterwords, Ivan will IMO move toward the Cayman Islands then western Cuba, passing over the island near Havana....on a track eerily similar to hurricane Charley. Intensification is likely as the hurricane passes over an area west of Jamaica with extremely high oceanic heat content...high octane fuel for a hurricane. I'm currently forecasting Ivan to reach 170 mph (150 kt) over the northwest Caribbean before reaching Cuba....and that might be conservative....especially since the hurricane may pass far enough south of Jamaica to avoid major disruptions to the core circulation.

As for U.S. landfall.....it's almost a certainty that hurricane Ivan will impact the U.S. coastline as a powerful hurricane. I'm currently forecasting the hurricane to pass near or just west of Key West and the lower Florida Keys, then inland along the Florida west coast between Sarasota and Naples...in the same area where Charley impacted only a month ago.
However, Ivan has a larger core of destructive winds than Charley....so landfall in the Captiva Island to Port Charlotte area would also mean major hurricane conditions in Sarasota county as well as the Fort Myers/ Naples area.

Please listen to all advice and warnings by your local and state emergency management officials...and if ordered to evacuate, please do so without delay.

For my complete 20z (4 pm edt) forecast track, please click here:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

[Derek Ortt]

I believe that the reason for the NW quad looking the way it does is due to the downslope flow off of the mountains, producing very dry air. Many topographic studies have indicated that this does in fact occur

[Matthew5]

So Derek doe's this mean that Ivan is not going to gets its act together?