Ivan Advisories
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I have a hard time wongering how the ridge is falling apart when Ivan is moving now @ 14.14 mph.basic geometry will get you through it
(.1 x.1 =.01 + .7 x .7 =.49)=.50 [ then take the sq. foot of .50]=.707
next .707 x 60 = 42.42miles 42.42/3 = 14.14 miles per hr.
The storm is speeding up ridge is still in place and possibly stronger.Ivan has slapped the NHC many times so far.Eric there will be N turn it is later
and not sooner.
(.1 x.1 =.01 + .7 x .7 =.49)=.50 [ then take the sq. foot of .50]=.707
next .707 x 60 = 42.42miles 42.42/3 = 14.14 miles per hr.
The storm is speeding up ridge is still in place and possibly stronger.Ivan has slapped the NHC many times so far.Eric there will be N turn it is later
and not sooner.
Last edited by Javlin on Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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I believe the strong ull to the ne of charley is having the effect of this more west track. Water vapor shows clearley the outflow to the north over the bahamas is clearly being flattened. So not is it just the ull but the ridge being strong, is shearing the clouds to the north of ivan, but ivan is far enough south to have no effect on its intensity but direction. The further it delays its nw track or sutle turn the more it takes it a little further westward on the track, and the models and the tpc are seeing this. How long will this continue, good question, esp with ivan slowing down now to 8 mph.
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I would say guys FSU model maybe.Ivan has been moving at 14 mph for the last 6hrs.The ULL in the Atlantic as much as it is suppose to collapse the high is moving it WSW moving Ivan even more to the W.I notice something else last night the 5 day forcast here along the coast hardly no change.We have very little rain forcasted and no change in tem.This makes me wonder how strong is this troff.
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- cycloneye
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8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w
cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html
No big changes.
It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w
caneman wrote:cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html
No big changes.
It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.
I was referring to the winds the no changes and about the track you will see wobbles as it moves slowly but the big thing to watch will be the definitive turn to the north in what longitud it will take place.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w
caneman wrote:cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html
No big changes.
It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.
Here is another thing notice how they inidicate 78.4. Go click on the NASA image and put the pointer over the eye. The eye is indeed at 17.7, however, it isn't at 78.4 it is at 78.1
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Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w
caneman wrote:caneman wrote:cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html
No big changes.
It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.
Here is another thing notice how they inidicate 78.4. Go click on the NASA image and put the pointer over the eye. The eye is indeed at 17.7, however, it isn't at 78.4 it is at 78.1
IMHO you will see a NW track indicated at 11.
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Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w
caneman wrote:caneman wrote:caneman wrote:cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html
No big changes.
It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.
Here is another thing notice how they inidicate 78.4. Go click on the NASA image and put the pointer over the eye. The eye is indeed at 17.7, however, it isn't at 78.4 it is at 78.1
IMHO you will see a NW track indicated at 11.
It suppose to go NW but the problem is it's now ONLY moving at 8mph.
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I know this is hard to hear for some. EVERY single model that has ran at 06 (the only models ran after the west jog) has shifted much further west, the new BAMM is near Panama City. This and the GFS has been Eastern outliers and they have shifted west. When the 12Z models run, they will be further west.IMO. These models have been right of track. As for as the slowdown, yes the NHC has said it will slow that's because the models are forecasting it.
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definitely a west shift in models
The GFDL now has landfall between Apalachicola and Pensacola in 114hrs. (I think that comes to midnight between wed 15th and thurs 16th.)
The 06Z GFDL has run and as of 0916Z the vortex data is running behind the model!
ftp://anonymous@ftp.nhc.noaa.gov//pub/products/nhc/model/2004091111.mdl
I checked the last vortex message and compared it to the model points.
Model Start 00Z= 17.4N 77.6W 1200z=17.7N 78.5W
~ expected movement in 6 hours .3N .9W
vortex data at 0947Z=17.5N 77.95W
~ actual movement in 3.75 hours .1N .35W
The 1200Z LBAR, BAMM and BAMD all start - 17.7N 78.4W
and cluster around the same endpoint as GFDL.
The 06Z GFDL has run and as of 0916Z the vortex data is running behind the model!
ftp://anonymous@ftp.nhc.noaa.gov//pub/products/nhc/model/2004091111.mdl
I checked the last vortex message and compared it to the model points.
Model Start 00Z= 17.4N 77.6W 1200z=17.7N 78.5W
~ expected movement in 6 hours .3N .9W
vortex data at 0947Z=17.5N 77.95W
~ actual movement in 3.75 hours .1N .35W
The 1200Z LBAR, BAMM and BAMD all start - 17.7N 78.4W
and cluster around the same endpoint as GFDL.
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First, thank you for all of the wonderful info on this site. I am a long time reader, first post.
I live in Atlanta but have a new house on Cape San Blas, FL. (about 25 miles west of Apalachicola)
I found the storm surge map for the Cape and it doesn't look good if a hurricane comes our way. When should I think about boarding up?
About the Cape...it is a "finger" thats sticks out on the point in the panhandle
Sat. Image here
http://www.visitgulf.com/PhotoAlbumDisp ... egory_ID=3
Here is our storm surge maphttp://www.gulfcountygovernment.com/hurr_zone.pdf
A strong hurricane here would cut the Cape off from the mainland and threaten the ecosystem of St. Joseph Bay.
I live in Atlanta but have a new house on Cape San Blas, FL. (about 25 miles west of Apalachicola)
I found the storm surge map for the Cape and it doesn't look good if a hurricane comes our way. When should I think about boarding up?
About the Cape...it is a "finger" thats sticks out on the point in the panhandle
Sat. Image here
http://www.visitgulf.com/PhotoAlbumDisp ... egory_ID=3
Here is our storm surge maphttp://www.gulfcountygovernment.com/hurr_zone.pdf
A strong hurricane here would cut the Cape off from the mainland and threaten the ecosystem of St. Joseph Bay.
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