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soonertwister
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#4081 Postby soonertwister » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:02 am

BIG wobble!
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mobilebay
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#4082 Postby mobilebay » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:06 am

soonertwister wrote:BIG wobble!

It also has seemed to effect the New 06Z GFS because it is further west on the entire run through 84H.
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Javlin
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#4083 Postby Javlin » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:05 am

I have a hard time wongering how the ridge is falling apart when Ivan is moving now @ 14.14 mph.basic geometry will get you through it
(.1 x.1 =.01 + .7 x .7 =.49)=.50 [ then take the sq. foot of .50]=.707
next .707 x 60 = 42.42miles 42.42/3 = 14.14 miles per hr.
The storm is speeding up ridge is still in place and possibly stronger.Ivan has slapped the NHC many times so far.Eric there will be N turn it is later
and not sooner.
Last edited by Javlin on Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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rbaker

#4084 Postby rbaker » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:26 am

I believe the strong ull to the ne of charley is having the effect of this more west track. Water vapor shows clearley the outflow to the north over the bahamas is clearly being flattened. So not is it just the ull but the ridge being strong, is shearing the clouds to the north of ivan, but ivan is far enough south to have no effect on its intensity but direction. The further it delays its nw track or sutle turn the more it takes it a little further westward on the track, and the models and the tpc are seeing this. How long will this continue, good question, esp with ivan slowing down now to 8 mph.
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#4085 Postby Javlin » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:28 am

I would say guys FSU model maybe.Ivan has been moving at 14 mph for the last 6hrs.The ULL in the Atlantic as much as it is suppose to collapse the high is moving it WSW moving Ivan even more to the W.I notice something else last night the 5 day forcast here along the coast hardly no change.We have very little rain forcasted and no change in tem.This makes me wonder how strong is this troff.
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rbaker

#4086 Postby rbaker » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:36 am

when ivan gets away in to open waters of the caymans there it will get that new surge to put it up to cat 5
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8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w

#4087 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:43 am

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Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w

#4088 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:44 am

cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

No big changes.


It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.
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#4089 Postby HollynLA » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:46 am

It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.


The NW move is forecasted in the official track though, so I really don't see much change in the current forecasted track.
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Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w

#4090 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:47 am

caneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

No big changes.


It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.


I was referring to the winds the no changes and about the track you will see wobbles as it moves slowly but the big thing to watch will be the definitive turn to the north in what longitud it will take place.
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How Strong Will Ivan Get?

#4091 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:48 am

I think he will get to 170mph by the time he enters the Gulf :eek:
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caneman

Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w

#4092 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:49 am

caneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

No big changes.


It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.


Here is another thing notice how they inidicate 78.4. Go click on the NASA image and put the pointer over the eye. The eye is indeed at 17.7, however, it isn't at 78.4 it is at 78.1
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caneman

Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w

#4093 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:50 am

caneman wrote:
caneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

No big changes.


It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.


Here is another thing notice how they inidicate 78.4. Go click on the NASA image and put the pointer over the eye. The eye is indeed at 17.7, however, it isn't at 78.4 it is at 78.1


IMHO you will see a NW track indicated at 11.
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#4094 Postby Aquawind » Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:52 am

Geesh..Ivan just got irritated as it sidestepped Jamaica from a landfall..Those mountains didn't weaken it a bit..and now it enters the hot soup..not good for Cuba at all..Jamaica got Blasted and still is..Whata tyrant Ivan is..
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#4095 Postby CFL » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:03 am

I woke up this morning to see TWC local forecast for Pensacola says rain and wind on Wednesday. Must be some major west shifts going on!
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caneman

#4096 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

CFL wrote:I woke up this morning to see TWC local forecast for Pensacola says rain and wind on Wednesday. Must be some major west shifts going on!


PErhaps they are expecting the front to move out by the time IVan comes up.
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Re: 8 AM=150 mph,WNW 8 mph,17.7n-78.4w

#4097 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:10 am

caneman wrote:
caneman wrote:
caneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://english.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

No big changes.


It is a big change Luis. It has dropped from 10 to 8 mph and the last 3 hours is much closer to NW than WNW.


Here is another thing notice how they inidicate 78.4. Go click on the NASA image and put the pointer over the eye. The eye is indeed at 17.7, however, it isn't at 78.4 it is at 78.1


IMHO you will see a NW track indicated at 11.


It suppose to go NW but the problem is it's now ONLY moving at 8mph.
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#4098 Postby mobilebay » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:27 am

I know this is hard to hear for some. EVERY single model that has ran at 06 (the only models ran after the west jog) has shifted much further west, the new BAMM is near Panama City. This and the GFS has been Eastern outliers and they have shifted west. When the 12Z models run, they will be further west.IMO. These models have been right of track. As for as the slowdown, yes the NHC has said it will slow that's because the models are forecasting it.
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definitely a west shift in models

#4099 Postby tronbunny » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:06 am

The GFDL now has landfall between Apalachicola and Pensacola in 114hrs. (I think that comes to midnight between wed 15th and thurs 16th.)
The 06Z GFDL has run and as of 0916Z the vortex data is running behind the model!
ftp://anonymous@ftp.nhc.noaa.gov//pub/products/nhc/model/2004091111.mdl

I checked the last vortex message and compared it to the model points.
Model Start 00Z= 17.4N 77.6W 1200z=17.7N 78.5W
~ expected movement in 6 hours .3N .9W
vortex data at 0947Z=17.5N 77.95W
~ actual movement in 3.75 hours .1N .35W

The 1200Z LBAR, BAMM and BAMD all start - 17.7N 78.4W
and cluster around the same endpoint as GFDL.
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Coral Palms
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#4100 Postby Coral Palms » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:15 am

First, thank you for all of the wonderful info on this site. I am a long time reader, first post.
I live in Atlanta but have a new house on Cape San Blas, FL. (about 25 miles west of Apalachicola)
I found the storm surge map for the Cape and it doesn't look good if a hurricane comes our way. When should I think about boarding up?
About the Cape...it is a "finger" thats sticks out on the point in the panhandle
Sat. Image here
http://www.visitgulf.com/PhotoAlbumDisp ... egory_ID=3
Here is our storm surge maphttp://www.gulfcountygovernment.com/hurr_zone.pdf
A strong hurricane here would cut the Cape off from the mainland and threaten the ecosystem of St. Joseph Bay.
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