Ivan Advisories

[Brent]

Typical. A comment saying it'll put South Florida in more danger, and when asked for a reason, there is none. Thanks a lot.

LOL

[ilmc172pilot]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... mated.html

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 111730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1730Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N
   78 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2414 M
D. 80 KT
E. 323 DEG 067 NM
F. 049 DEG 141 KT
G. 309 DEG 012 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 17 C/ 3089 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 04
   MAX FL WIND 141 KT NW QUAD 1726Z.
   MAX FL TEMP 19C 304/06 NM FROM FL CNTR

[air360]

yes, i agree...i have seen some saying this is one of the ULL that will be involved with the N turn for ivan...but when looking at it it sure seems to have alot of spin and in many ways looks like a very minimal tropical system in many ways...could this be something forming or is it nothing more than a spin of clouds?
(located around 65 and 30 degrees)

[corpusbreeze]

I have noticed the cmc is starting to trend west. It has been one of the best models with this Ivan. Maybe the west coast of the GOM isnt off the hook. I wonder how big Ivan could be if it got to travel over that hot untouched water?

[Pebbles]

You can see it on the water vapor too if you slow down the animation and zoom in on the eye

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Here's another learning link on mesovorticies

http://216.109.117.135/search/cache?p=m ... 1&.intl=us

[das8929]

Lol. Omg now theyre saying the West Coast. Whats next Brownsville?? This is seriously making me mad. THIS IS A PANHANDLE STORM.

[bobbisboy]

I don't not know whether IVAN will make his turn at 80 or 90 or somewhere in between but what I do feel strongly about is that once that happens, wherever that is, the track is not going to be some gentle bend but a sharp turn north for a good stretch. DT has made this point several times and as to the aspect of his analysis, I think he is dead on. Now it is just a matter of waiting until that turn comes. The slowdown indicates perhaps it may be sooner than later.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I have noticed the cmc is starting to trend west. It has been one of the best models with this Ivan. Maybe the west coast of the GOM isnt off the hook. I wonder how big Ivan could be if it got to travel over that hot untouched water?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Yeah, way, way, way west. We might even get this thing to Texas before it's all said and done.

[washington]

What is Mike McCall say about the storm. I heard he said we should not worry about it jsut yet. I wanted to see did he change his tone.

[otowntiger]

Yes I think so. Everyone has been saying west, west, west, so it is inevitable that it will strike somewhere in either Texas or Mexico probably as an histerically large, Texas sized storm!!! Better watch out over there!

[das8929]

Watch out Cancun!!

[air360]

doesnt anyone have any information on this ...is it nothing..or something?

[bwstg]

Typical. A comment saying it'll put South Florida in more danger, and when asked for a reason, there is none. Thanks a lot.

Nobody here is going to put their neck on the line like that. Whether their professionals or not. I still believe it will go east. I don't see the sudden wide west and then north west like the tracks are hinting at. This is my guess, and like all guesses on this, its in line with all opther GUESSES, but this one is mine all mine.

[Zadok]

This monster is not coming to Florida!

[corpusbreeze]

Lol. Omg now theyre saying the West Coast. Whats next Brownsville?? This is seriously making me mad. THIS IS A PANHANDLE STORM.

Well alright now. May mother nature grant your comand. Take a chill pill.

[das8929]

They might as well post hurricane watches from Key West to Brownsville because those are all the places it could possibly hit, according to some people.

[KBBOCA]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/americas/3648084.stm

BBC is reporting at least 2 deaths in Jamaica

HURRICANE TOLL

Grenada: At least 17 dead
Venezuela: 5 killed
Dominican Republic: 4 killed
Jamaica: 2 killed
Tobago: 1 killed

[rockyman]

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Anonymous]

Wow--theres a model on crack for ya

Why do you say that?

This model is obviously basing its track on the current heading---which would make the turn later... But Ivan is crawling and likely to make that turn a lot sooner and sharper than the model is showing---as models showed tampa landfall with Charley, and got a track well right, I would expect Ivan to go well right of the models again... Hopefull they will get back on track...