Ivan Advisories

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #4641 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:07 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2044Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2337 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NA NM
F. 203 DEG 150 KT
G. 122 DEG 009 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 11 C/ 3121 M
J. 24 C/ 3098 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO17-20
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 18
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z.

B-Bear · #4642 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:07 pm

Frances wasn't in the Gulf long enough to create any substantial cooling. And what cooling did occur took place just off the coast of Florida.

Lockhart · #4643 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:07 pm

As Louisiana was six days out two days ago, I hardly think it's surprising that their status has shifted in that time. The NHC lists their average error at five days out at 325 nautical miles on the fifth day. The track hasn't shifted hundreds of miles in two days.

Matthew5 · #4644 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:07 pm

Now thats something you don't see every day!

Fodie77 · #4645 Postby **Fodie77** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:09 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Look at the loop and check off "forecast points." You can see that it is slowly moving south of the NHC track.

southerngale · #4646 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:10 pm

Dang, I wonder how low it will go. :eek:

Website · #4647 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:10 pm

WOW...

#4648 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:11 pm

The trof diving into the Central and Western Gulf states look like it could pull Ivan into the SE GUlf and move it north and then Northeast intp West Central or The Nature Coast Of Florida. The NHC track looks alittle to far west (plus Ivan will not move due north). Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

Robert 8-)

hibiscushouse · #4649 Postby **hibiscushouse** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:11 pm

Southern Watusi

While I'm still very concerned and don't feel out of the woods yet (the Charley turn), I do feel like a valium has kicked in. I didn't realize how "alert" my mind and body has been for the last 4 days.

While I take a little bit of a breath, I can feel some of you holding yours in.

ohiostorm · #4650 Postby **ohiostorm** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:11 pm

Hopefully everyone has made their efforts to either leave or get to safety. This storm will not miss these islands. My parents have been there before and the pictures Ive seen are absolutely beautiful.

Rainband · #4651 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:12 pm

Until I am out of the cone I am and will be worried, even with this west shift we are still in trouble.

#4652 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:13 pm

OK, I'll bite.

Sanibel, according to the UKMET, you will get a good scare.
While the NHC track gives the coast a wide berth, our friends across the big pond have Ivan skirting a bit closer to the west coast before taking aim just east of Apalachicola on wednesday morning as an "intense" storm. :eek:

here's their take:

WTNT80 EGRR 111919

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.09.2004
HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 78.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 11.09.2004 17.6N 78.2W INTENSE

00UTC 12.09.2004 18.4N 80.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2004 19.1N 81.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.09.2004 20.2N 82.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.09.2004 21.5N 83.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.09.2004 22.6N 84.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.09.2004 25.3N 84.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.09.2004 27.5N 85.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.09.2004 28.8N 86.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.09.2004 30.2N 85.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.09.2004 32.5N 85.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 17.09.2004 33.5N 83.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 17.09.2004 34.8N 84.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

jagesq · #4653 Postby **jagesq** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:13 pm

Bill Gates has a beautiful mansion on the island. I just returned from a dive trip there. One good thing is the water is exceptionally deep right off the island, it drops down to thousands of feet right at the famed cayman wall. That should minimalize storm surge right?

#4654 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:13 pm

FOX news reported Ivan as tied for 6th as the all time strongest hurricane in Atlantic.... WOW.....

Lockhart · #4655 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:14 pm

Well, Fodie, that was true previously, but as of 5:14PM (now), the forecast point is *right* over where Ivan is. I guess the forecast has been updated, so it's now starting at the forecast point.

canegrl04 · #4656 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:15 pm

Ivan is really staring to scare the bagesus out of me :eek:

I got this bad feeling we are witnessing a one in a lifetime event.

#4657 Postby **artinla** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:15 pm

There is a 12 degree temperature differential between the inside and outside of the eye.. That is the largest differential I have seen so far. It would seem to indicate that the storm is still strengthening.

Fodie77 · #4658 Postby **Fodie77** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:15 pm

http://www.cnn.com/US/9805/27/florida.f ... hicola.jpg
Map of Apalachicola's location in FL for those who don't know.

#4659 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:16 pm

Fox news just reported that fact.Wow from it's birth Ivan has made many records some of them already tragic.

canegrl04 · #4660 Postby **canegrl04** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:18 pm

I think I can only name a few.Camille,Gilbert,Mitch,Andrew. Whats the 5th? :?:

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